Turkey's Downing of Russian Plane Deepens East-West Divide

Turkey’s downing of a Russian warplane near the Syrian border on November 24 marked the first time a nato member state has engaged a Soviet or Russian aircraft in more than half a century.

The move injected new tensions into the already volatile Syrian conflict, and it is serving to deepen a new divide between East and West.

Two Sides

Russian warplanes have been flying hundreds of sorties over Syria since September. They are the main military component of Moscow’s support for the regime of embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Russia has many reasons to back Assad’s regime and to bomb its opponents. Under Assad, Syria hosts a vital Russian naval base and acts as a Russian listening post and military-intelligence hub. Supporting the Assad regime also pleases Iran, which is Russia’s other main Middle Eastern ally and a staunch supporter of Assad. Russia’s involvement in the Syrian war also allows President Vladimir Putin to trumpet the message that the era of United States’ dominance is ending and that Russia is now crucial for solving international problems—whether Western powers like it or not.

Turkey, on the other hand, has good reason to oppose Russia’s efforts to keep Assad in power. The Turkish leadership is gravely worried about Iran’s expanding power in the Middle East and opposes Tehran’s influence in Syria and beyond. The Turks know that to oust Assad would be to weaken the foundation of Iran’s axis—especially in Turkey’s backyard. They are determined to see Assad toppled.

The Ice Won’t Melt Soon

After Turkey downed the Russian jet, the Russian leadership denied having violated Turkey’s airspace and discussed declaring war on Turkey. The Russians stopped short of that, but Putin said it was a “stab in the back delivered by the accomplices of terrorists” and warned that it would have “serious consequences for Russian-Turkish relations.” Russia’s foreign minister said Moscow “can’t but react to what has happened.”

The reaction began on November 28, when Putin issued a decree suspending employment of Turkish workers in Russia. Russia also started detaining some Turkish ships at its ports, suspended its visa-free travel deal with Turkey, levied bans on importing certain Turkish goods and suspended military cooperation with the Turks. The incident has effectively frozen Russian-Turkish relations.

Turkey called for a cancellation of these punitive measures and a restoration of relations, but Russia refused.

Turkey reacted to that refusal by holding some of Russia’s ships at the Black Sea port of Samsun.

Geopolitical Futures, a new intelligence project led by Stratfor founder George Friedman, said on December 8 that the ice between Russia and Turkey will not melt anytime soon.

“[W]hat is increasingly clear is that tensions between Russia and Turkey are now at least as intense as they were during the Cold War and show no signs of subsiding. … The Turks have clearly decided that Russia, not the Islamic State, is the primary enemy. They have also decided Russia is their prime adversary not simply due to its military buildup, but its support of Assad.”

The sudden tension between two powerful military nations alarms many onlookers. Yet, as alarming as that Russia-Turkey tension is, the fact that it is expanding beyond their borders—and helping to catalyze the formation of two great power blocs—is more so.

East vs. West

First, consider the Western response. Turkey is a member of nato, which links it closely to the nations of Europe. Evidence of the strength of this link was clear when, just a few days after Turkey shot the Russian jet down, key European powers were already positioning themselves to take on a greater role in the Syrian war.

The nato foreign ministers’ meeting concluded on December 2 with members pledging to give military support to Turkey. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said nato members “stand in solidarity with Turkey” on the issue of the downed jet. He said that in the aftermath of the incident, nato will increase its backing of Turkey’s military defenses.

Germany said it will deploy Tornado reconnaissance jets to Turkey and will station around 550 soldiers there. Germany also asked Turkey to permit German military jets access to İncirlik Air Base. Denmark pledged to deploy frigates to protect Turkey from Russia’s S-400 missiles. Italy signaled that it will do its part by setting up Patriot air and missile defense systems in Turkey. The mission for Spain’s Patriot air defense missile systems in Turkey was extended past its previous termination date of January 2016. And the list goes on.

For some of these nations, the increased involvement in the Syrian war was prompted more by the November 13 Paris attacks than by the rising Russia-Turkey tensions. But Moscow’s involvement in Syria and Turkey’s downing of the Russian jet are also playing a significant role in their decisions. The trend is working to rally Turkey and European nations together behind a common military cause.

A parallel trend is happening in the East—with Russia at the helm. Ever since Western nations condemned Russia’s annexation of Crimea and sanctioned Moscow for it, Russia has been looking eastward, creating and shoring up alliances with certain Asian powers. This trend has implications extending deeply into the Syrian conflict.

Russia’s primary ally, China, has pledged to support Moscow’s objectives in the Syrian war, and said China’s stance on the matter is in harmony with that of Russia.

India’s stance on Russia’s campaigns in Syria is similar to that of China, and Middle Eastern nations such as Iran and Egypt also support Moscow.

China also recognizes that the conflict is deepening the divide between East and West, and that it could lead to a conflict of global proportions. Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece the Global Times said Turkey’s downing of the Russian warplane “[c]ould be one of the most critical moments since the end of the Cold War.” The Times said the incident’s “potential severity and associated risks could be a climax of geopolitical crises over the past decades,” adding that it could lead to “an unprecedented turbulent situation not seen since World War ii.”

The emerging East-West divide is not occurring along seamlessly clean lines. Many cooperating nations have conflicting interests in Syria and beyond, and some partnerships in the conflict—such as that between Russia and France—exist outside of the divide. The model isn’t perfect. But in the broad strokes it is clear that a mighty Eastern power and a powerful Western bloc are now coalescing. This is a vital geopolitical trend to watch.

To understand how to watch and understand this trend, read “Vladimir Putin Is the Prophesied Prince of Russia.”