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Декабрь
2015

Are polls actually underestimating Donald Trump's support?

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If you've been shocked by Donald Trump's staying power atop the GOP presidential primary, prepare to be shocked once again: In some analysts' opinion, there might be even more Trump supporters out there than polls reveal. The real estate mogul and Republican presidential candidate is seeing his biggest support in online polls from lower- and working-class voters. That's important, as National Journal points out, because history shows that candidates like Trump tend to see actual turnout track online support, where Trump leads by double digits, more than in live-interview polls, where he's only ahead by single digits.

National Journal explains:

It turns out that a non­trivi­al share of these same work­ing-class, anti-im­mig­rant voters won’t tell a live per­son who they sup­port but will share their true feel­ings when their sup­port is secret — like on Elec­tion Day. This is no sur­prise: Sup­port for im­mig­ra­tion and glob­al­iz­a­tion are per­haps the only polit­ic­al sentiments that unite elites from both busi­ness and the academy, from right and left. Openly sup­port­ing an anti-im­mig­ra­tion can­did­ate can risk so­cial op­pro­bri­um, ri­dicule, or worse. In oth­er words, for every group of vo­cal Trump sup­port­ers, there are prob­ably a lot more who just don’t ad­vert­ise it. [National Journal]

Read the full analysis over at National Journal.




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