Polling update: Trump widens lead; does 2008 polling give Sanders hope?
REPUBLICANS
We’ll start with the GOP, because quite frankly, that’s where the biggest drama lives.
Ben Carson is still heading south, Donald Trump still on the upswing, but the most interesting line on that chart is Marco Rubio. As the current establishment pick, he needs to show continued strength to have any hope of consolidating the non-tea party wing of his party. But … nope. He’s flatlining even as Jeb Bush continues his slow death march. The biggest non-Trump gainer at the moment is Ted Cruz, but at just over 12 percent, he doesn’t have much to brag about.
| IPSOS/REUTERS | 12/5-9 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS/NYT | 12/4-8 | 35 | 13 | 9 | 16 |
| Morning Consult | 12/3-7 | 41 | 12 | 10 | 7 |
| Suffolk/USA Today | |||||
For the GOP, Iowa ended up being a tale of two wildly contradictory polls:
| Monmouth | 12/3-6 | 19 | 24 | 17 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN | 11/28-12/6 | 33 | 20 | 11 | 16 |
Guess which one Trump likes, and which one was glommed onto by the media and GOP establishment? These polls are so wildly divergent that it’s impossible to try and make sense of them. In short, Trump is either static or way up, and Cruz is either up or way up. The only thing we can conclusively state from these polls is that Carson is buh bye.