Argentina’s soybean area down 0.6% while wheat output forecast at 17.6 million tonnes

In its first estimate for Argentina’s new soybean crop in October, Sagyp projected the sowed area at 17.8 million ha. The latest forecast is 7.8% higher than the 16.6 million ha harvested in 2023-24, when the country’s output reached 48.2 million tonnes.

This was the same figure projected by Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) in its monthly report released last week, which raised its estimate from the 17.7 million ha projected in October, leading to the highest sowed area for the past six years in Argentina.

BCR also increased its estimate for Argentina’s soybean production to 53 million-53.5 million tonnes from the previous 50 million tonnes projection. SagyP has not released production estimates so far.

The increase in the sowed area forecast was driven by improved soil moisture conditions and an estimated lower acreage of late corn, according to Sagyp.

In November, soybean planting became widespread in Argentina, reaching 36% of the soybean projected area, 3% ahead of the same week last year.

“Planting accelerated after the rainfall recorded in recent weeks, while in the regions less benefited by the rains, farmers are waiting for improved moisture to move forward with planting,” Sagyp said.

Wheat

Sagyp projected Argentina’s wheat output would rise by 10.7% from 15.9 million tonnes the previous year in its first estimate for the 2024 crop production.

The estimate is lower than the 18.8 million tonnes forecast from BCR’s report last week, and down from the 19.5 million tonnes forecast in October. This is still estimated to be Argentina’s fourth biggest crop in the past 15 years.

SagyP’s sowed area estimate was unchanged at 6.3 million ha, up by 6.8% from 5.9 million ha last year.

The lower-than-expected production volume was due to low rainfall in the early stages of the crop in practically all of the production area except the northeastern, eastern and southeastern regions of Buenos Aires, along with the period of water shortage in the southeast of Buenos Aires.

Corn

SagyP has left its corn sowed area projection unchanged at 9.4 million ha in 2024-25, a 15.3% decline from the 11.1 million ha sowed area last crop year in Argentina.

The estimate is above the 7.8 million ha forecast from BCR; the exchange reduced its estimate from the previous 8 million ha in last week’s report.

To date, planting reached 45% of the projected area, 5% ahead of the previous year.

The rains at the beginning of October improved the soil condition, which led to greater progress in planting tasks.

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