Aggressive global policy will continue
Q. How would you describe the top trend of 2015?
A. The top trend of the outgoing year was the mounting turmoil in international relations. The outgoing year did not lessen the degree of tension in world politics as leaders of countries were openly playing for high stakes in a hope that the enemy would be the first to turn off the road. Hotbeds of tension are erupting everywhere; moreover, conflicts between two countries are often being personalized, making it difficult to go ahead for a search of possible compromises.
The conflicts have sparked an exodus of refugees and displaced persons. This is why the migration crisis in Europe was one of the major events of the outgoing year. The conflicts in the Middle East forced about 1.2 million people from Syria and other countries to seek refuge in the EU. Waves of immigrants sparked conflicts between members of EU countries united in the Schengen Agreement. To counter the flow of refugees some of them have introduced controls at their internal borders, while others have built walls and temporary fencing.
The terrorist attacks in Egypt and France were the ‘black’ events of 2015. On October 31 a homemade bomb brought down the Metrojet airliner over Egypt’s Sinai desert killing all 224 people on board, mainly returning Russian holidaymakers. Two weeks later, a terrorist massacre killed 130 people in Paris In both cases, radical Islamists from the ISIS (banned in Russia) claimed the responsibility. We can not fail to mention also the Russian-Turkish conflict that has contributed to the already fragile system of international relations. After Turkish fighter downed a Russian Su-24 in Syria, the once almost 'strategic' relations between Moscow and Ankara transformed immediately into enmity. Ankara’s action was slammed harshly by the Russian leadership followed by slapping of economic sanctions against Turkey. All this has added to instability, including in the South Caucasus.
Q. What was the main event of the year in Armenia and the Caucasus as a whole? How will that affect the region in the coming year?
A. One of the most important political events of the year in Armenia was the December 6 constitutional referendum that has made Armenia a parliamentary republic. Under the revised constitution the supreme executive body is the government that develops and implements internal and external policies. According to the new constitution, the party or bloc of parties that win parliamentary elections name a candidate for the post of prime minister who is to be approved formally by the president. The president's powers will be significantly reduced. He is elected for a term of seven years (instead of the current five) by the parliament and one and the same person can be elected only once.
Naturally, after the adoption of the amendments some changes in the political field are possible . However, according to experts, if no force majeure occurs, the ruling Republican Party of Armenia has all chances to keep its dominant position after the next parliamentary elections scheduled for 2017.
In 2015 Armenia and many other countries marked the centenary of the Armenian Genocide. On April 24 - the Day of Remembrance of the Victims of Genocide - presidents of Russia, France, Serbia and Cyprus, as well as high-ranking delegations from dozens of countries arrived in Armenia and the day before, the Holy See Etchmiadzin conducted a special ceremony of canonization of the genocide victims. The liturgy for the innocent victims was held also in the Vatican by Pope Francis who condemned the genocide, despite the sharp reaction of Turkey.
The process of international recognition of the Armenian genocide continued in 2015 as well with Brazil, Luxembourg and Austria joining the list that includes Bolivia, Sweden, Chile, Lithuania, Poland, Venezuela, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Argentina, Switzerland, Italy, Vatican City, Greece, France, Belgium, Lebanon, Canada, Russia, the EU, Cyprus, Uruguay, as well as by the European Parliament, the Council of Europe, the World Council of Churches.
The aggravation of Russian-Turkish relations has made the Armenian Genocide issue an item in Russian "anti-Turkish" agenda. In particular, the Just Russia party initiated a bill on criminalizing the denial of the Armenian Genocide, however, experts both in Armenia and Russia were not enthusiastic about it saying that emotions and short-term interests should not define a common agenda.
Q. It is difficult now to make forecasts, and yet what is your forecast for the next year in Armenia, Russia and the world?
A. With regard to Armenia, the next year will be tense. Azerbaijan is openly seeking to escalate tension in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, where the situation could spiral out of control of the OSCE Minsk Group. For the first time since the ceasefire in 1994, Azerbaijan used tanks and heavy artillery to shell the positions of Armenian forces raising the tension to a new, very dangerous level. Speaking at the latest CSTO summit in Moscow Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan reminded its members about their mutual obligations urging them to learn from NATO that showed unconditional support to Ankara following the downing of Russian war plane.
Armenia's economy is also experiencing hard times. Global trends, such as slow economic growth in Europe, the ongoing economic recession in Russia and the falling oil prices make it very difficult to predict high rates of growth. Weak domestic demand is holding back consumption and investment, while worsening economic situation in Russia contributes to a sharp reduction in remittances.
Global policies will continue to be aggressive. Until the next US presidential election the political situation in the world will not undergo major changes. We can predict the ongoing confrontation in Syria (Russia versus the West) and intensification of terrorist organizations in Europe. We should not ignore Russian resentment against Turkey and in this regard not only the war of sanctions, but also more serious developments around Syria are quite possible. The smoldering conflict in Ukraine will remain on agenda.
There is however a reason for cautious optimism –the resolution on a political settlement of the conflict in Syria, adopted unanimously at the end of the year by the UN Security Council. The document calls for immediate talks among the parties to the Syrian conflict and those forces supporting the ceasefire. Both Russia and the West emphasize that if all goes according to the plan, the fight against terrorists may become much more effective and the world would become more calm.-