2015 – The Year America Left the Middle East

Stability is rare in the often volatile Middle East. It’s a land where the 20th-century national borders seldom parallel ethnic and religious lines, creating an almost hypnotic sequence of domestic uprising and revolution. In the few cases where nations are composed of a homogeneous group, those same nations often use their inherent strength to export their ideology and influence on weaker, more fractured states.

In the decades since the fall of the Soviet Union, the most powerful actor in the Middle East has done its best to both safeguard the territorial integrity of weaker states as well as increase its level of support for regional players willing to do the same.

Maintaining this limited peace, which it did with varying levels of success, took much diplomatic effort, heaps of cash, and too many lives.

However, it’s no secret that since the start of Barack Obama’s presidency, the United States has sought to withdraw from its traditional policing role and find an exit strategy from the Middle East.

2015 marks the year that strategy became reality. And now the Middle East is moving on.

Enemies no longer fear what America might do, and allies are left to fear what those enemies will do in America’s absence. The fact now stands that neither America’s enemies nor its former allies include America in their decision-making.

The key to American withdrawal was the ending of hostilities with Iran, as evidenced by the U.S.’s willingness to proceed with a comprehensive nuclear deal.

It is in the shadow of this nuclear deal, signed in July, that most other key events in 2015 transpire.

Iran’s Free Pass

Early in the negotiations between Iran and the United States, even before the rest of the world was aware they were taking place, America was the desperate party. True, Iran was suffering under crippling international financial sanctions, but it would have been willing to grit its teeth and suffer through the pain a little longer. It was the United States that proved hungrier for a deal.

Iran couldn’t believe its luck. Before the talk of a nuclear deal, the United States strongly countered Iran’s moves for hegemony in the region. But not anymore.

By threatening to walk away from the negotiating table every time the U.S. got upset, Iran received a virtual free pass to export its destabilizing force in the Middle East.

In Iraq, Iran strengthened its hold over the nation by quickly activating different Shiite militias in the fight against the Islamic State. After a series of embarrassing defeats, the Iraqi Army was proving largely ineffective against the Sunni jihadists, losing key cities such as Ramadi and Mosul. Iran was more than happy to give its help. Its Shiite fighters provided most of the ground forces needed to successfully hold back the Islamic State from getting closer to Baghdad, while the United States provided air cover. While the U.S. claimed there was no collusion between the two militaries, Iran and the U.S. were virtually on the same side. In the meantime, Iranian revolutionary guard leader Qassem Suleimani was seen often on the Iraqi battlefield where he quickly claimed legendary status. Despite Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s efforts, 2015 has seen his country become a vassal of this neo-Persian empire.

In Syria, 2015 saw the arrival of Iranian troops to help bolster the regime’s beleaguered leader Bashar Assad. Since the early 2000s, Syria had become a proxy of the Iranian government, providing a valuable transit point between the Shiite powerhouse and Lebanon on the Mediterranean coast. However, since the Arab Spring of 2011 looked to topple Assad’s government, Iran covertly sent military advisers to help the Syrian Army. Later in 2012-2013, Iran activated its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah to join the fight. Finally in 2015, the gloves came off and Iranian troops were seen fighting inside Syria. All the while, the United States maintained its call for Syria’s president to step down from power, but did nothing.

It was also at the start of 2015 that Iran mobilized its Shiite Houthi militia in northern Yemen to take over the Red Sea nation. Backed by Iranian military hardware the Houthis quickly overran the capital of Sanaa in January and ousted the American- and Saudi-friendly government. The militia then began shouting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” At the time we noted how this was part of Iran’s strategy to dominate the sea-lane from the Persian Gulf through to the Mediterranean.

In all of these arenas Iran has acted without fear of American retribution.

Saudi Arabia’s Frantic Search for Friends

America’s courting of Iran through the nuclear deal also created a vast rift between the United States and its traditional Middle Eastern allies, most notably Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, as well as the Israelis, raised their voices in disapproval of the nuclear deal; they realized a deal would increase the likelihood of an Iranian nuke rather than put a stop to the program. However, their concerns fell on deaf ears at the White House.

At one time, the Saudis could outsource much of their protection to the United States. This provided a level of stability to the region. As it became clear that the status quo had changed, however, Saudi Arabia scrambled to counter Iranian actions in any way it could.

It was particularly noticeable in Yemen. In the latter part of 2014, Saudi Arabia increased its calls for action against the Houthis as they had started their attacks against the government. By the time the Houthis took over the capital in January 2015, the Saudis understood that America would not lead any action, so they formed a coalition of almost a dozen nations to counter the Houthis’ advance. This was announced without any prior conversation with the superpower—a telling sign of a frosty relationship.

Later in the year, Saudi Arabia announced the formation of a hastily assembled coalition of Islamic nations to counter international terrorism. While the Islamic State was mentioned in particular, the fact that no Shiiite powers are part of the alliance indicates that its objective is more than just countering the Islamic State. The sectarian nature of this coalition is instead a reaction to Iran’s growing power and its growing use of terrorist proxies throughout the Middle East. Again, the U.S. was not made aware of this alliance until after it was announced.

Russia Returns to the Middle East

2015 also saw Russia’s return to the Middle East. Starting in September, Russia began sending troops into Syria to support Assad’s regime in a direct confrontation with the United States. This looks to have been done after a request came through from Iran for help in the region. In order to make this move, Russian President Vladmir Putin must have decided that the United States would do any thing it could not to jeopardize the nuclear deal, and therefore it would not act against Russia’s movements. By being part of the nuclear negotiations with Iran, Russia saw firsthand how desperate the United States was to make a deal with Iran.

Thanks to this free pass for Russia, Putin saw an opening to revive his image and send troops to Syria to fight against the Islamic State. But once the Russians arrived inside Syria, they didn’t target the Islamic State, but rather focused most of their attention on the U.S.-backed Syrian rebels who were fighting for Assad’s removal. The last few months of 2015 saw a capitulation of the United States’ position in Syria to the point where Secretary of State John Kerry has now claimed that “we are not looking for a regime change in Syria.”

The Further Ascendancy of Iran

Leveraging the nuclear deal, Iran has made great strides to expand its neo-Persian empire. However, it’s important to realize all these gains were made without the $100 billion of sanctions relief that is due to be released in early 2016. The United States administration believes that the upcoming cash will be used domestically, improving Iranian infrastructure, etc. However, Iran has made its intentions clear.

In July, just after the deal was inked, Iran approved a five-year plan that would ultimately boost its military budget by more than 50 percent—this is on top of a 29 percent rise in its defense budget in 2015. If sanctions did not motivate Iran to curtail its spending on its military, there is no way it will stop pushing to expand when it receives its cash windfall.

That’s why we at theTrumpet.com fully expect Iran’s ascendancy in the Middle East to continue through 2016. Watch for the Persian nation to grow more belligerent toward the United States, not less. Watch as it uses its increased coffers to export terrorism abroad, seeking to undermine Saudi Arabia’s attempts to counter it. In particular, look for Iran to meddle further along the Red Sea corridor and the southern Mediterranean.

Back in the early 1990s, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry identified Iran as the head of the biblically prophesied king of the south, a conglomeration of nations that uses Islamic extremism to push its weight around. In 2015, we witnessed the United States catapult that king to dominance in the Middle East at the expense of its traditional alliances. Expect more of the same in 2016.