Marco Rubio's high-risk path to the nomination

A lot of pundits — myself included — believe that Marco Rubio is going to be the Republican Party's nominee in 2016. Most of us seem to have done so by a process of elimination: The other guys just can't get the nomination. Cruz is too extreme and oleaginous. Christie is too moderate. Jeb is too timid, and a Bush. Trump is too Trump. And who are these other people again? So Rubio it must be.

There's a big flaw in this line of thinking, however: The next nominee of the Republican Party for president doesn't necessarily have to be the "best guy." He only has to win the most primaries and delegates.

Rubio doesn't have an obvious path to the nomination. Trump leads in the polls. Cruz can, at least conceivably, vault to the top of the polls by winning Iowa and South Carolina. Rubio does well enough everywhere, but not great anywhere. There have also been stories about how Rubio doesn't have much ground game in the early states, hasn't spent a lot of time courting essential activists, and doesn't really spend that much time campaigning in the early states, preferring to fundraise.

Some have even gone so far as to suggest Rubio isn't seriously running for president — perhaps he wants to be vice president, or the next "heir apparent," since the nomination often goes to the previous runner-up, or maybe he just enjoys hobnobbing with rich people too much to be president. The official line of the campaign is that Rubio prefers to bet on TV ads and online targeting rather than traditional in-the-flesh outreach. That is a risky gamble.

And yet, Rubio still has a path to the nomination.

First, for the overall strategy. Presidential primaries are typically wrapped up early: The early contests vault one or two candidates to the top, everyone else drops out, and then whoever has most money and organization whomps the other guy on Super Tuesday. I think Rubio is betting, correctly, that it won't be like that this time. There are too many well-funded candidates for that — Cruz has a lot of fire in his belly, Trump and Bush have a lot of money and are not going to give up easily. And, as RedState's Erick Erickson points out, the longer the contest goes on, the better it is for Rubio, since many of the later states, like Florida, are more likely to vote for Rubio.

Now, for the key early states.

First, because he hasn't staked it all on Iowa, all Rubio needs to do there to gain momentum is to outperform expectations, which he's likely to do. The media perception is that Rubio is running as the establishment candidate and Iowa Republicans are all super-conservative, but the truth is that Rubio is a Tea Party conservative and, aside from the loud minority of single-issue immigration voters (who were never going to vote for him anyway), is quite well-liked.

Second, for all the talk of a Christie surge in New Hampshire and Jeb betting it all on the state, Rubio is still outpolling both of them there. A Rubio win in New Hampshire is possible. This was Romney's path to the nomination: A better-than-expected performance in Iowa and a New Hampshire win secured the former Massachusetts governor's status as frontrunner.

South Carolina doesn't look good for Rubio, but both Nevada and Florida are also early states, and they are states where Rubio may do well since he has a history in both.

As the contest goes on, Carson, Fiorina, and Christie will likely drop out after underwhelming performances. Everyone except single-issue immigration voters and hardcore evangelicals will consolidate around Rubio. Jeb will keep running but with abysmal scores. Most importantly, Trump and Cruz will split the base vote, allowing Rubio to rack up wins.

It's a high-risk, high-reward strategy by Rubio. He's betting that the internet and mass media have made direct voter outreach less important than before. He's also betting that the contest will drag on for long enough that saving a lot of money will have proved crucial. It's a high-risk bet, but not a crazy one.

Is it the most likely scenario? Probably not, but it's a possibility. Is it a scenario that needs many stars to align? Sure, and that's the case for any candidate in American presidential elections. I'm not writing off Rubio yet.