Nobody really knows which coronavirus strategy is the right one

There are no models for the decisions our leaders have to make.

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Good morning. David Meyer here in Berlin, filling in for Alan.

Until proven vaccines are deployed at scale, the fight against coronavirus is one without an easily-defined weapon. While some countries are faring better than others, and some approaches have been a clear failure, no COVID-stricken nation can be sure of the right way forward. As explained in this worthwhile Wall Street Journal piece from yesterday, no-one even knows where most infections are taking place.

And so, we must observe what each country does to grapple with its particular circumstances, and take notes as various experiments succeed or fail.

Here in Germany, the government responded to rising infection rates with a “lockdown lite” that shuttered many businesses in the hospitality, sports and leisure sectors, while leaving most of the economy humming—an approach that seemed proportionate to the fact that case and death numbers were significantly lower than in neighboring countries such as Belgium and Czechia.

Two weeks later, how’s that going? That’s the big question being debated today by Angela Merkel’s administration and those of Germany’s 16 states, who must decide whether the rules—provisionally set to last another couple weeks—need tightening.

Given the lag between infection and diagnosis, it’s still difficult to tell whether or not Germany’s second wave has crested. Infection rates seem to have slowed, but there are strong indications that lockdown lite is no quick fix.

“We will have to live with considerable precautions and restrictions for at least the next four to five months,” said Economy Minister Peter Altmaier yesterday in a newspaper interview, adding that Germany’s leaders “have little room for maneuver” when it comes to reopening restaurants and cinemas.

“The infection numbers are still far too high—much higher even than a fortnight ago,” Altmaier said. Reports suggest new measures could be introduced, including a ban on private parties until Christmas, compulsory mask-weaking in schools, and even quarantine and sick leave for anyone experiencing symptoms of a regular cold.

At least we’re not Austria, where a harsh new lockdown will begin tomorrow: schools will close, as will all non-essential shops, and people won’t be able to meet others from outside their households. These measures, which will run through December 6 at the earliest, suggest the failure of a more tentative approach that was very similar to ours in Germany.

But then again, the Austrian case rate per 100,000 people was 1,034 over the last two weeks, while in Germany we’re still at a markedly less-catastrophic 310. That number is still too high, though—enough to stress intensive-care facilities in many parts of the country.

Germany may have come through this pandemic relatively well so far, but progress comes one step at a time. So let’s spare a thought this morning for the political leaders—in all countries—who currently have to make the toughest calls, with no clear models to guide them.

News below.

David Meyer
@superglaze
david.meyer@fortune.com