World Bank: Armenia’s economic indicators decline in May due to industrial, trade slowdown
The decline in Armenia#39;s economic indicators in May is primarily attributed to a downturn in industrial production and trade
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YEREVAN, July 16. /ARKA/. The decline in Armenia's economic indicators in May is primarily attributed to a downturn in industrial production and trade, according to the World Bank's Armenia Monthly Economic Update – July 2024 review, published on Tuesday.
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In May, economic growth fell by half to 5.2 percent (yoy), down from 10 percent (yoy) in April, the review said.
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According to Armenia’s National Statistics Committee, economic activity in Armenia grew by 5.2% in May 2024 compared to May 2023. In April, this figure stood at 10.4%.
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World Bank analysts note that industrial growth in May slowed to 6.9% compared to 16.6% in April, mainly due to a reduction in manufacturing output (11.5% in May versus 27% in April).
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This was caused by contraction in alcoholic beverage production (down 14 percent, yoy) and a slowdown in tobacco production (13 percent, yoy, down from 23 percent, yoy, in April), the report stated.
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Trade growth also slowed (17.6% in May versus 27.2% in April), although growth slightly accelerated in the service sector, excluding trade (2.8%), and in construction (18.1%).
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The slowdown brought cumulative January-May economic growth to 11.2 percent (yoy), still higher than expected, the World Bank noted.
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The Armenian state budget for 2024 projects an economic growth rate of 7%. The Central Bank of Armenia expects the country's economy to grow between 6.1% and 6.8% in 2024.
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The Eurasian Development Bank forecasts Armenia's GDP growth at 7.5% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025. The World Bank anticipates the Armenian economy to grow by 5.5% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025. The IMF projects a 6% growth in the Armenian economy in 2024. The EBRD forecasts 6.2% economic growth in Armenia in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025. The ADB predicts 5.7% growth in 2024 and 6% in 2025. According to Fitch Ratings, Armenia's economic growth will be 6% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025. SP forecasts 6.2% growth in 2024, while the UN expects Armenia's economy to grow by 5.2% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025.
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