Opinion: US to act against Iran and Russia by using Turkey and Azerbaijan, at the cost of Armenia
ArmInfo.The processes around the South Caucasus will continue regardless of the outcome of the US presidential elections. A similar opinion was expressed by diplomat Dzyunik Aghajanyan, the former Armenian Ambassador to the Netherlands and Indonesia, at the discussions hosted on the Genesis Armenia platform.
The discussions were focused on the US elections and their potential impact on the South Caucasus region and Armenia. The diplomat is confident that the Democrats will not allow the Republicans to win the elections, even if they have to resort to falsifications. Aghajanyan added that the US is no longer hiding the fact that they will not allow the project initiated after the Soviet Union's collapse to be paused for a second, let alone change its direction.
"The goal of the project is to fully subjugate the remaining parts of the Soviet Union for the subsequent collapse of Russia. In other words, the aim is to bring certain territories of Russia and its resource base under the control of the Collective West. But the problem is that after the Russia falls, it will not be difficult to bring about the collapse of China as well," the diplomat believes. In this regard, she noted that the South Caucasus, from the point of view of the post-Soviet space, is a kind of junction, since it is here that Central Asia and Europe intersect in terms of continental communications.
"In addition, the process of destroying Iran can begin from our region. This project has been implemented over the past 30 years and has reached the point that we are seeing today. The Democrats cannot allow it to be stopped," she noted.
Aghajanyan is convinced that it doesn't matter to Armenia who comes to power in the US, whether it is Harris or Trump, as the West will continue its actions against Iran regardless. "In other words, the US, will use Turkey and Azerbaijan to carry out actions against our neighbor Iran at our expense," the diplomat said. When asked if the modernized project
"Unfortunately, Armenia has failed to properly assess its role in the geopolitical situation. It is important to recognize that without a connection to Turkey, Azerbaijan will also become a landlocked country and rely heavily on Armenia and Georgia for exporting its resources. Today's realities indicate that Artsakh was the screw that maintained the geopolitical balance, and its removal made it possible to implement these Western projects in the South Caucasus. The same applies to Syunik; the role of this Armenian region should not be overlooked," Aghajanyan believes.
According to her, if Armenia gives preference to NATO projects, it will lose its statehood as the Homeland of Armenians. The country will become a territory populated by Azerbaijanis and Turks, which is the goal of the so-called "Western Azerbaijan" project. The diplomat pointed out that Baku will use the pretext of returning so-called refugees in the future to achieve this goal. In this vein, Aghajanyan recalled that Azerbaijanis voluntarily left the territory of the Armenian SSR before the Spitak earthquake of 1988, taking all their belongings with them, selling their homes. Those who were unable to do so received compensation in the amount of 72 million rubles from the Armenian SSR, which wasn't the case for the Armenians expelled from Azerbaijan. She also noted another reality, namely, living in a particular territory does not imply having property rights over that territory. Aghajanyan is sure that these narratives were discussed by the current leader of Armenia with the Azerbaijani side even before coming to power in April 2018. Otherwise they could have been stopped immediately, which has not been done by the current Armenian authorities.
Touching upon the decrease in Russian presence on the borders with Iran and Turkey, the diplomat suggested that the Armenian authorities' ultimate goal is to establish a neutral state. According to her, this in turn could serve as a strategy for Russia's withdrawal from the South Caucasus. "Unless, of course, we witness a provocation by military action that will put the Russian Federation in a hopeless situation. Moreover, the situation can develop according to two scenarios: either Russia's involvement in military actions within the framework of agreements with Armenia, including along the CSTO line, which will lead to the opening of a second front, or a refusal to engage in actions, which in turn will allow the Armenian authorities to raise the issue of their withdrawal. In fact, Russia will find itself in zugzwang. Therefore, Iran and Russia are working to prevent any tensions, especially on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, to avoid the need for involvement in a potential conflict," the diplomat believes.
However, the diplomat continued, stating that regardless of who wins the US elections, America will continue its plans in the South Caucasus. At the same time, Aghajanyan believes that the developments in Georgia, the position expressed by Iran in a form that is not typical for its foreign policy, and the periodic movements initiated by the opposition in Armenia after the 44-day war have all contributed to the delay in the implementation of the West's plans in the South Caucasus.
Nevertheless, she believes that the US will continue to implement its plans in the South Caucasus, making certain adjustments along the way. "I have concerns that in April-May there will be an attempt to open a second front with another military provocation. Here the question of the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan arises, and the issue of border delimitation comes to the fore. And yes, I do not agree with the assertions that this process could have been hindered by the CSTO's September proposal to introduce troops to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, which the Armenian authorities rejected. I am sure that the CSTO could have easily deployed its troops on the border with Azerbaijan and would not have hindered the delimitation process in any way, and if it had been carried out in accordance with international norms, then after the border had been appropriately defined, they would have calmly moved to the new demarcation lines," Aghajanyan said. The diplomat is confident that such a course of events, however, would have deprived the West and Azerbaijan of an instrument of provocation against the Russian Federation and the opportunity, if necessary, to open a second front in the South Caucasus. She is sure that the Russian Federation agreed to withdraw its troops from 17 points on the territory of Armenia to reduce the possibility of being in zugzwang due to provocations from the West, and the Armenian authorities took this step to make their borders more vulnerable.
She is also convinced that the current authorities cannot refuse to implement this US project, as they have certain obligations. However, it has become obvious to the world that NATO is not the military-political force they boasted about two years ago. The EU does not have the financial and economic situation that it talked about two years ago, and the West does not have the unshakable influence in the world it claimed to have two years ago. "Turkey and Azerbaijan were initially part of this project, but today they have changed their position, they are dragging out time to negotiate better terms with Armenia for signing a peace treaty and to avoid commitments to the West, particularly actions against Iran," the ex-ambassador believes. At the same time, she is confident that Aliyev already understands that if he takes part in actions against Iran, he could not only nullify the colossal achievements of recent years, but also destroy Azerbaijan. Therefore, he is trying to back down.