Amplifying the margins

‘I’m watching all the stats because they were the best stats and the best goal difference in the semi-final, so it’s very clear. But it’s not about the winning probability or what you’ve merited, it’s actually making it happen and making it count…I think what we have to try to do is to amplify the margins. The bigger the margins are, even if those things happen, then it will be very difficult for the opposition.’

This was Mikel Arteta’s assessment of Arsenal’s Champions League semi-final exit against PSG and his assessment of the season overall. It is fair to say that a great many things have gone against Arsenal this season, some of which have been more or less beyond their control but no honest analysis of a season should involve throwing your hands in the air and insisting you were totally helpless.

In his pre Southampton press conference, Arteta warmed to the theme once more. ‘We have to add goals, we have to add creativity, we have to add numbers and that will be in different positions.’ Going into the final game of the season, the Gunners have drawn 14 games. Only Everton (15) have drawn more. That is the best illustration of the failure to amplify the margins. Arsenal are very difficult to beat but not impossible to resist. Here are three ways in which Arteta and Arsenal can ‘amplify the margins’ next season.

Greater jeopardy in attack

A lot of this is tied to the need to refresh and replenish the Arsenal attack but the team does tend to build in the final third a little too deliberately and a little too slowly (for my liking anyway). I understand the thinking behind this, that the team waits until it is set behind the ball so that it is difficult to counter on them.

As much as there is probably consensus among Arsenal fans that the risk and reward dial needs to be turned more towards the ‘risk’ end of the spectrum, it is still a delicate operation. You don’t want to totally disregard the benefits of such a strategy. However, Arsenal simply haven’t shown enough devastation in attack. Last season they were able to cover some of that off with their excellence in setpieces.

Undoubtedly long-term injuries to key pillars like Saka, Havertz, Jesus and Odegaard have amplified the margins in the wrong direction and exacerbated the issues. But even with everyone fit, it is an issue that needs a little correction. Moving away from Jesus as the team’s go to centre-forward has probably cost them a little jeopardy.

What I am enthused about is Arsenal’s reported targets. Gyokeres and Sesko are pretty direct in approach. Sesko shoots well from the edge of the box, Gyokeres shoots frequently. I’ve no idea whether Nico Williams will sign this summer but he is incredibly direct (for better and for worse). He is in the 98th percentile for successful take ons in La Liga this season. He is also in the 89th percentile for progressive passes received. He stays pretty high up the pitch and he takes his man on.

Whether that signing comes to fruition or not, I think I accept that Arteta and Arsenal are admirers which suggests that profile interests them. Martin Zubimendi is also someone we all accept is a firm Arsenal target. Zubimendi is a swift first time passer off both feet, while a lot of Arsenal’s play builders have a bias towards one side, Zubimendi essentially spams the ball in every direction.

He comfortably leads the Real Sociedad team for progressive passes and passes into the final third. He progresses the ball with a little more urgency than either Partey or Jorginho. Execution in the market matters more than intention, clearly, but these targets make me reasonably optimistic that Arteta also sees an urgent need for greater bombast in the final third.

Greater creativity

Going into the final Premier League game are joint 6th in the league with Brentford for XG (per FBRef). That puts them 22.4XG behind champions Liverpool. It also makes Arsenal the biggest XG overperformers in the division. Next season, the team needs to create more chances.

I think many of us have a generic idea of what creativity entails, we likely envisage traditional playmakers like Özil and Bergkamp sending defence splitting through balls onto grateful strikers. That is an important part of the shot creating milieu but creativity comes in many forms.

Peter Crouch registered 58 Premier League assists during his career and I don’t think many of them were defence splitting through balls. Nicolas Jover has become one of the most creative presences in the Arsenal team because corners and free-kicks have become such a regular avenue for chance creation.

However artisan in appearance, greater urgency and greater devastation in the final third- be it crosses, dribbling, shot rebounds, flick ons, turnovers, through balls, Arsenal have to find more threat by varying means. Related to this is to relieve the burden on Martin Odegaard. Last summer, Arsenal spent a good portion of their summer transfer kitty on Mikel Merino.

He has been a valuable player this season but, arguably, a squad that already has Rice and Havertz and that shed Fabio Vieira and Emile Smith Rowe last summer could probably have done with a more traditional creative presence for the sake of balance.

Better squad management

Injuries have undoubtedly derailed Arsenal’s title challenge this season. However, when three of Arsenal’s attackers and one of their first-choice centre-backs have required surgery on hamstring injuries introspection is required. In one respect, some seasons do just shake out like that and the club enjoyed pretty good injury luck in 2023-24.

However, the human body does not run to a strictly August to May timetable. Injuries to Havertz, Saka and Gabriel in particular will have had their roots before August 2024 (summer international tournaments carry a tariff too). Arsenal were correct to move on from Eddie Nketiah, Fabio Vieira and Emile Smith Rpwe last summer, in my view, but the reality is that all would have played far more this season had they stayed than they did in 2023-24.

Jakub Kiwior has shown himself to be a very capable performer in Gabriel’s absence and maybe we could use him more often next season (assuming he stays) so we don’t have to wait for Gabriel’s hamstring to tear asunder before using him. (Though in fairness, Kiwior has looked good when presented with a run of games during his Arsenal career, whereas when he plays individual games he looks less assured).

Injuries beget injuries too, in 2023-24, Timber’s ACL injury meant that Arsenal had to run Ben White into the ground and this season, Ben White’s knee injury meant that Jurrien Timber had to play until his ankle ligaments required some TLC under the surgeon’s knife. Hopefully next season, Calafiori and Lewis Skelly and White and Timber can timeshare the full-back roles more effectively.

The emergence of Ethan Nwaneri ought to ease a little strain on Saka, another striker to at least share the load with Kai Havertz and a winger that isn’t dead weight like Raheem Sterling has proved to be would help. Likewise, I think we have seen some frayed edges from David Raya in the closing weeks of the season and a better back up goalkeeper (who is eligible to play in the League Cup) would also help.

The post Amplifying the margins appeared first on Arseblog ... an Arsenal blog.