Eyeball Scout: Young Pitchers Plan For 2025

There were ups and downs for every young starting pitcher who got his feet wet, and in some cases drenched, in 2024. We saw potential and we saw flaws, and now the question is: how can each of them best position themselves for success in 2025? Or are they even the right guys with whom to trudge forward as the friendly confines of the Coliseum give way to a less forgiving home venue?

Joey Estes

Tonight’s starting pitcher, Joey Estes, makes his final 2024 appearance in his age 22 season. If there is one thing Estes has going for him it’s his youth: struggles from Estes, Jacob Wilson, Darell Hernaiz, and Tyler Soderstrom all can be framed within the reality that these guys are still just 22-23 years old and were pushed to the big leagues quickly.

Estes also benefits from the “bulldog mentality” competitiveness that is hard to teach. He will likely always overachieve, but will he overachieve being good or just be a better version of bad?

While I appreciate Estes I am currently in the camp that is not terribly optimistic about this iteration of a pitcher sustaining success. I believe some actual changes are needed, not just more experience and finessing of the 22 year old version of Estes.

The plus:

What we see from Estes is a high fastball that “plays” — its velocity isn’t anything special by today’s standards (he averages 92.4 MPH) but he does get swings and misses, and pop ups, due to the good “ride” his fastball enjoys. And while none of Estes’ off speed pitches are plus offerings, he does change speeds on his breaking ball well and gets quite a bit of off balance contact when he’s right.

The delta:

Here’s the problem and it’s a huge one: you just can’t survive keeping the ball on the ground as seldom as Estes does. His ground ball rate is an astonishingly low 24.4% (for contrast, Mitch Spence is at 49.1%, TJ McFarland 57.1%). And with it comes an alarming tendency to serve up HRs: 22 HRs in 122.2 IP, the cost of putting so many balls in the air when 10% of them are bound to fly over the wall.

Estes benefits from a low BB rate (1.83/9 IP), which allows a higher percentage of his dingers to be solos. In that sense he is following the Danny Haren model of pitching, pounding the strike zone and accepting the occasional solo HR as collateral.

The difference is that Haren, with his swing-and-miss splitter, missed a lot more bats and put fewer balls overall in play. Haren struck out 7.49/9 IP for his career, 8.27 or better 3 straight seasons in his prime, in an era of more contact.

In contrast Estes has fanned just 6.60/9 IP because his secondary pitches are not special. So he gives up a lot of contact, most of it is in the air, and that’s just a hard way to make a living as a SP.

The solution:

If Estes threw 97 MPH instead of 92 MPH, his arsenal might work. But unless you happen to be Jared Koenig you generally can’t adopt a strategy of “just throw 8 MPH harder for no apparent reason”.

Similarly, fans love to say “add ___ pitch” as if every pitcher can probably learn to throw every pitch if he just tries. Sadly it’s not that simple. And yet...sometimes a new grip, a new pitch, even a new position on the rubber, can turn around a career.

And if I were Joey Estes, or I were his pitching coach, I would spend this off-season working on some sort of a sinker to add to the equation. We have seen not one, but two, A’s SPs do exactly this: Spence, giving him a pitch that runs arm side to contrast with the cutter and slider, and JP Sears, to supplement the high fastball and give him a pitch to pound at the bottom of the zone.

Without the ability to pitch down in the zone and without a tool to keep the ball on the ground more, I just don’t see Estes being more than a #5 SP who can occasionally bulldog his way to a great start but more often gets hit too hard and far.

As is, Estes has no margin for error at the top of the zone: most every slight location mistake gets whacked something fierce and the game plan is ultimately too predictable. If you are a “pitch to contact” pitcher who isn’t going to rack up a lot of Ks, then you need to be able to welcome contact — as McFarland does, inducing ground balls that most often find infielders and which rarely leave the yard.

Mitch Spence

Overall it’s been an excellent season for Spence in his maiden voyage. His 4.35 ERA is consistent with a “solid back end SP” and has room to improve, while his 2.69 BB/9 IP and 147 IP predict a valuable 180 IP starter (over a season in which he is in the rotation all year) who can essentially be Estes with twice the ground ball rate.

The plus:

Spence is already a solid #4 SP thanks to wicked movement on both his slider and cutter, and the variety of a big curve and sinker he mixes in. The sinker is an important weapon because it prevents hitters from looking exclusively for the same movement (away from a RH batter, into a LH batter), and the curve offers a key change of speed from Spence’s mostly “firm” offerings.

The delta:

It’s unclear how much room Spence has to grow if the goal is to morph into more of a mid-rotation SP or, in a perfect world, a Justin Duchscherer like gem. Spence relies a fair amount on getting batters to chase cutters and sliders whose movement fools them and you wonder what will happen if hitters just start taking more pitches and force Spence to pound the zone more.

What I see:

I can usually tell when Spence is going to stay on a roll or start getting whacked around a bit. Usually his pitches are firm, thrown hard with a lot of snap to them. But then sometimes it looks like he starts “lopping” those pitches up with a more gentle, free and easy delivery, and suddenly he gets hit hard as the snap and late movement gives way a more trackable version of the pitch.

I think Spence has to trust the sinker more so as to keep hitters from looking for, and successfully tracking, the cutter and slider. And then he has to maintain that firmness in those pitches because the late and sharp movement on those pitches is his carrying tool.

Ultimately, I’m not sure Spence has a lot more upside than we’ve seen but it’s also worth noting that as is he’s already valuable — you just need to find a couple front-of-the-rotation guys so he can slot in where he should.

My 2025-26 depth chart

So where do I see the various young pitchers in terms of their potential to slot in somewhere in a contending rotation?

“Front-of-the-rotation” (#1-#2 SP) potential:

Keep close eyes on Mason Barnett and Jack Perkins, as health permitting each likely will arrive in the big leagues sometime in 2025. These are the guys who could potentially carry the front of a rotation if they continue to progress as they did in 2024.

Mid-rotation (#3 SP) potential:

Let’s hope for a successful comeback for Ken Waldichuk, who showed mid-rotation potential before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Yes he got cuffed around in his final start, but with a repeatable delivery, a variety of offerings he can command, and the ability to locate in all corners of the strike zone, I think Brady Basso (whom I wrote about 2 weeks ago) has #3 SP upside even if that’s not his most likely outcome. And while I was initially skeptical, Oswaldo Bido made a believer out of me and I am keen to see what he shows in 2025.

Back-end (#4 SP) potential:

Along with JP Sears and Spence, who are already there, the A’s have other candidates to earn a spot in a future rotation. They include Hogan Harris, who seems to throw more strikes in the big leagues than he does in the minors, and JT Ginn, who will always have the last ever win at the Coliseum.

Then you have Estes, currently Kyle Muller (who I predict will be DFA soon and a non-factor), and Luis Medina (TJS), who have strengths but I’m not seeing enough to put them above “#5 SP” status.

Please set me straight where I have grossly over or under rated one of these guys. Here’s hoping they all hit their 99th percentile outcomes and lead the A’s to glory wherever they might be playing in the coming years!