Bitcoin’s bull market will ‘redefine’ BTC’s role in modern portfolios — Fidelity research
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s performance in the current bull market and a new cohort of buyers reflect a maturing market and widening adoption.
A 50% rise in hashrate and a 63% jump in Realized Cap highlight investors’ confidence in Bitcoin.
A recent report from Fidelity Digital Assets explored how the current Bitcoin market cycle reflects a shift toward a maturing market where the rate of adoption deepens and expands.
At block height 892,500—marking 25% progress into the current halving epoch—Bitcoin traded between $82,500 and $85,000, representing a 31% increase from its value on April 19, 2024, when the fourth halving reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC.
Fidelity’s senior research analyst Daniel Gray emphasized Bitcoin’s network resilience, noting a 50% surge in hashrate since the halving. This increase signals strong miner commitment despite reduced rewards. Unlike previous cycles marked by post-halving rallies, the 2024–2025 phase has been characterized by steadier, more measured growth.
The Puell Multiple—an indicator of miner revenue relative to Bitcoin’s price—has stabilized, suggesting that the market is adjusting to lower issuance without significant volatility. The report explains,
“Bitcoin’s more muted returns likely reflect a market that is digesting several extrinsic tailwinds and headwinds, which have inevitably caused some uncertainty.”
Historically, this mid-epoch phase has coincided with new all-time highs—an event that occurred this week. Fidelity noted that this growth could extend into Q2 2025, potentially redefining Bitcoin’s position as a credible asset class in modern portfolios.
Bitcoin's Realized Cap is a significant indicator of this evolution, which measures cumulative net capital inflows. Since the 2024 halving, the Realized Cap metric has surged 63%, climbing to $915 billion from $561 billion, underscoring the scale of capital entering the market.
This trend fits within Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, where Realized Cap has risen with each halving, indicating a maturing asset with substantial growth progression.
Key drivers behind this Bitcoin bull market
The current bull market cycle is also distinguished by record-breaking levels of institutional investor and corporate-level participation. The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US in January 2024 has ushered in $134 billion in inflows, while monthly trading volumes on platforms like Binance soared past $1 trillion in March 2024—a massive leap from just $11 billion in January 2018.
Public companies' strategic accumulation of Bitcoin, most notably Strategy, now holding 576,230 BTC, also sets a new industry blueprint. Firms like Metaplanet Inc., Bitcoin Group SE, and Semler Scientific have since followed suit, validating Bitcoin’s role as a corporate treasury asset this cycle.
Thus, Gray asserts that Bitcoin’s fundamentals and global recognition are “stronger than ever,” signaling a cycle of growth, institutional anchoring, and market resilience.
Related: Bitcoin's new all-time high has traders asking: Is BTC price overheating at $111K?
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