The Great Barrier Reef, Collapsing?

It’s the largest living structure on Earth, 3,000 individual reefs, 900 islands, 1,430 miles, and it may be collapsing. Alas, The Great Barrier Reef Annual Summary Report of Coral Reef Conditions, 2024-2025 presents a dire picture, the poorest condition ever, the worst report in recorded history. Moreover, mass bleaching of coral has been confirmed in 83 countries. Something is seriously wrong with the oceans; this is too anomalous, too massive to ignore as a passing one-off event.

Coral reefs have experienced bleaching events over the years because of ocean heatwaves and recovered, but nothing in the past compares to this onslaught. A new all-time record of ocean heatwaves was set in 2023-24-25 with 500 days of continuous excessive heatwaves, suggesting a dreaded ocean regime shift. The Oceans are Overheating – and Scientists Say a Climate Tipping Point May be Here, ScienceDaily d/d July 26, 2025.

Alarm bells should be ringing throughout the world, waking up the world’s leadership to an omen that nobody in their right mind wants to hear; Anthropogenic (human) generated greenhouse gas emissions, like CO2, have already heated up the oceans enough to threaten the survival of the world’s most iconic natural treasure, considered one of the “Seven Natural Wonders of the World.” Too much ocean heat is more than warm-water coral can handle. After all, over 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions is absorbed by the ocean.

The world of coral is on life support. Coral reefs, aka; the rainforests of the sea are crucial to marine life and importantly serve as an early warning signal of worldwide climate system trouble turning deadly serious. This new risk comes through loud and clear in the newest edition of the Global Tipping Report 2025 just released, a compilation of 160 authors from 23 countries and 87 institutions.

“Even under the most optimistic future warming scenario — one in which global warming does not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times — all warm-water coral reefs are virtually certain to pass a point of no return. That makes this ‘one of the most pressing ecological losses humanity confronts.” (Coral Collapse Signals Earth’s First Climate Tipping Point, ScienceNews, October 12, 2025)

But humanity does not satisfactorily “confront pressing ecological losses.” It holds huge world conferences to talk about troubles and chit chats about this and that, but no major coordinated solutions ever play out. For example, at the Paris 2015 climate conference, the most significant climate meeting in history, the nations of the world committed to cutting CO2 emissions, taking mitigation measures, etc. to halt global warming.

Alas, 10 years later, it is universal knowledge that they are not even close to meeting Paris ’15 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to stop global heat. Not even close. In fact, CO2 emissions are up more than 200% since 2000, up from an annual rate of 1.25 ppm in 2000 to a soaring 3.75 ppm in 2024. As a result, all kinds of bells and whistles and alarms are going off with red lights flashing danger ahead on several global overheating fronts.

Indeed, coral reefs are the most sensitive natural ecosystems on the planet. Across the globe they are in deep trouble because of record ocean heat. And oceans do not generate heat, they absorb it. Now, it’s kicking back into the face of humanity. Enough is enough.

“A marine heat wave across much of Australia’s northwest reached unprecedented levels from December 2024 through to April 2025. In January and February, there were extremely high levels of heat stress (+3 to 4°C) off the Kimberley coast.” (Coral Bleaching Events, Australian Institute of Marine Science, 2025)

“NOAA (in partnership with the International Coral Reef Initiative) confirmed the world is in the midst of its 4th global coral bleaching event. From 1 January 2023 to 11 September 2025, bleaching-level heat stress has impacted 84.4% of the world’s coral reef area and mass coral bleaching has been documented in at least 83 countries and territories.” (Current Coral Bleaching: Status Update & Data Submission, Updated Sept. 12, 2025, NOAA National Environment Satellite Data and Information Service)

“The ongoing global coral bleaching event is the biggest to date. The previous record was during the 3rd global coral bleaching event, which occurred from 2014-2017, when 68.2% of the world’s reef area experienced bleaching-level heat stress. The 1st and 2nd global coral bleaching events occurred in 1998 and 2010, respectively,” Ibid.

When nearly 85% of the globe’s coral reef area is hit by “bleaching-level heat stress” something is terribly wrong. Of course, this does not mean that all coral immediately dies, as prior heat stress events have seen some recovery at later dates, But, that may be the rub, will the ocean’s heat waves and ocean temperatures moderate, or not?

“Global sea surface temperatures have remained at near-record levels in 2025, following a record-shattering jump in 2023 and 2024.” (Rapid Ocean Warming, Climate Central, July 30, 2025) Furthermore, September Sees Persistently High Land and Sea Surface Temperatures Globally, Earth.org, October 9^th, 2025.

According to EcoFlow, there is a La Niña watch for winter 2025-2026, which hopefully brings a cooling trend in the Pacific. This is a natural occurrence that can provide some temporary relief; however, the major trend of heatwaves persisting in the ocean may be a new shift in the ocean regime that has scientists nervous. The Oceans are Overheating – and Scientists Say a Climate Tipping Point May be Here, ScienceDaily d/d July 26, 2025)

Because of the alarming sudden jump shift, since 2023, in global heat on land and in the ocean, several climate scientists are calling for not only a halt to CO2 emissions but also a commitment to SRM or solar radiation management via geoengineering the climate system to block solar radiation. This is a “yes or no” issue, “no maybes,” that raises the shackles of advocates and opponents alike as compromise seems a distance away. Nevertheless, as global heat continues to deteriorate major ecosystems, like coral reefs, and continues to accelerate meltdowns, West Antarctica and Greenland, with rising sea levels encroaching upon coastal megacities around the world, it grows increasingly likely that SRM becomes a World Panic Button of last resort.

But there are several unknowns.

Will it be soon enough fast enough?

Will it work as advertised?

Will it damage the Ozone layer or other atmospheric molecules necessary for survival?

But, beyond the wherefores, buts, maybes and hopefuls of SRM, can anything stop nature’s sudden eruption of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions into the atmosphere from former carbon sinks like the Amazon rainforest and Arctic permafrost and now in concert with cars, trains, planes and factories?

Indeed, this grisly consortium, including nature spewing emissions into the atmosphere alongside cars, trains, planes, and factories is by far the most disturbing event of the decade and maybe of the 21^st century. It likely cancels out the benefits of renewable energy. Unfortunately, there’s no on-off switch to control nature’s carbon emissions, up up and away into the atmosphere alongside (‘strange bedfellows’) human-generated CO2 emissions; together, nature/humanity are on the road to who knows where?

The danger is only too obvious as nothing could be worse than losing legendary carbon sinks converted to carbon sources at the same time as the ocean is suffering record-setting heatwaves, up to 500 days consistently. This kind of ‘out of this world, unbelievable’ stuff is not supposed to happen. But it is happening. Does this spell the onset of a runaway hot Earth scenario, a very big question mark that may be on the minds of scientists.

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