How can Southern California unemployment and hiring both be rising?
8 million local workers in June – an increase of 22,800 in a month and up 115,100 over 12 months.
Southern California’s job market is a very mixed picture: Unemployment in June was the highest since 2022’s start, though the last time hiring was faster was in early 2023.
My trusty spreadsheet reviewed non-seasonally adjusted jobs data for Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties released Friday, July 19 from California’s Employment Development Department.
Let’s start with the region’s unemployment rate, which ran at 5.4% in June – up from 4.6% the previous month and 4.7% a year earlier. Unemployment in June was 5.9% in LA County, 5.3% in the IE and 4% in Orange County.
The last time the region’s joblessness rate was higher was January 2022 when it ran 5.6%. But unemployment typically rises in June as many government educators start their summer breaks.
Yet, this year’s 0.8 percentage-point jobless increase from May is larger than the average 0.5-point increase in the same period in pre-pandemic 2015-19. It’s one hint of a seemingly cooled regional job market in recent months.
Unemployment trends are compiled from a survey of households. When government researchers asked employers about staffing, however, a more optimistic picture appears.
Bosses in Southern California had 8.02 million workers in June – an increase of 22,800 in a month and up 115,100 over 12 months. This hiring equals 1.5% job growth in a year – the swiftest pace since January 2023. The Inland Empire had a 1.9% increase, Orange County was up 1.4% and Los Angeles County rose 1.3%.
Remember, the Federal Reserve is using higher interest rates to slow an overheated economy. In addition, various uncertainties – including national politics – can be unnerving. So, numerous employers and shoppers are trimming expenses.
But stubborn inflation continues to wallop household budgets. That may be pushing some folks back to the job market. Southern California’s workforce – a metric combining the employed and the unemployed – is growing at its fastest pace in eight months.
The four-county region’s job market, by key industry niches …
Private Education/Health: 1.53 million, off 9,400 in a month and up 80,100 in a year.
Business Services: 1.12 million jobs, up 400 in a month and off 11,100 in a year.
Hospitality: 975,700 jobs, up 3,600 in a month and up 13,700 in a year.
Government: 1.05 million jobs, up 6,600 in a month and up 26,400 in a year.
Retail: 730,100 jobs, up 2,600 in a month and off 400 in a year.
Manufacturing: 566,300 jobs, up 2,500 in a month and off 9,300 in a year.
Transportation/Warehousing/Utilities: 457,200 jobs, up 3,000 in a month and up 8,700 in a year.
Construction: 376,400 jobs, up 3,600 in a month and up 1,800 in a year.
Financial Activities: 359,400 jobs, up 1,500 in a month and off 700 in a year.
Wholesale Trade: 352,000 jobs, up 5,300 in a month and up 1,400 in a year.
Information: 222,100 jobs, up 3,800 in a month and off 600 in a year.
And the hiring patterns, by metropolitan area …
Los Angeles County: 4.60 million jobs, up 11,700 in a month and up 60,200 in a year.
Orange County: 1.71 million jobs, up 5,400 in a month and up 23,800 in a year.
Inland Empire: 1.71 million jobs, up 5,700 in a month and up 31,100 in a year.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com