Bromance on the brink?
THE week before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was to arrive in the United States, he received an unwelcome gift. A military plane from the US carrying around 100 undocumented Indian migrants was sent to Indian Punjab.
The men had endured the 40-hour journey from detention centres in the US to India in shackles. More such flights followed, with the total number of Indian deportees from the US crossing 330 in under two weeks. Heartrending ordeals have been described by the deportees who have been subjected to such treatment by President Donald Trump’s administration that is intent on getting them out of the US.
It must, therefore, have been a humiliating time for Modi, who has long been a fan of Trump with whom he shares the same authoritarian inclinations. Ever since Modi’s 2019 visit to the US and Trump’s return trip the next year, with both men speaking to packed audiences during their respective visits, Indians in general and Modi in particular had imagined that the bromance between the two leaders set them apart from the rest. Considering the punishments that the Trump administration has been raining down on so many other countries, they thought that they would be spared.
But the first plane full of deportees undoubtedly rattled nerves. In the run-up to the actual meeting, India television anchors continued to praise the two men’s cosy relationship plastering screens with images from the rallies in Houston and Ahmedabad. The nerves were not just because of the planeload of deportees. In the new era of trade that the Trump administration seems eager to pioneer, tariffs reign supreme and trade deficits are determinative. By these metrics, India would be hit hard.
This became obvious hours before the meeting when President Trump announced that the US would be slapping reciprocal tariffs on every country who charged America tariffs. The Trump administration was also peeved about the enormous trade deficit between the two countries — $45.6 billion in favour of India.
In the Trumpian worldview, such deficits are the direct result of the high tariffs that a particular economy — in this case India — is charging the US for access to their consumer market. During his election campaign, Trump had actually referred to India as a “big abuser” of trade ties. He said that India would need to step up its purchases of gas, oil, and defence equipment from America.
Despite the support for Trump, the right-wing Hindutva establishment that props up Modi was essentially given a scolding.
During his recent visit, when Modi embraced Trump, the latter did not seem to be as effusive. While Indian media streaming the event live tried to put a positive spin on the two men’s meeting; highlighting what Trump said about Modi’s negotiating skills — “he’s a much tougher negotiator than me, and he’s a much better negotiator than me” — the meeting, by any objective standard, was not a success, central to which was the fact that Modi came back without any waivers on the reciprocal tariffs issue.
According to Reuters, in 2023, India imposed an aggregates weighted tariff of 11pc on American goods, which is higher than what the US charges India. In certain sectors, tariffs were even higher.
For instance, the White House said in a fact sheet: “The US average applied Most Favoured Nation … tariff on agricultural goods is 5pc. But India’s average applied MFN tariff is 39pc. India also charges a 100pc tariff on US motorcycles, while we only charge a 2.4pc tariff on Indian motorcycles.” The last example virtually ensures that no American manufacturer can sell motorbikes to the Indian consumer market.
With such announcements coming out of the White House even before Modi’s arrival in Washington, the outcome of the meeting was more or less expected. Trump announced no waivers just because India was ‘special’ or because he and Modi were ‘good buddies’. “Prime Minister Modi and I have agreed that we will be in negotiations to address the long-running disparities,” Trump said, instead, referring to the US-India trade relationship. But really, we want a certain level of playing field, which we really think we’re entitled to.“
Modi walked away having been told that his country which now buys oil and gas from other countries would now have to buy it from the US and then ship it all the way from the US to India. This purchase will be a lot more expensive than the ones India has been used to.
Trump also offered the possibility for India purchasing F-35s — something that may sound good but that camouflages the fact that India would now likely have to buy whatever expensive defence goods the US chooses to produce or sell to it so that the trade deficit narrows.
All this is not good news for Modi. Despite the support for Trump, the right-wing Hindutva establishment that props up Modi was essentially given a scolding. The reciprocal tariffs are likely to slow down India’s growth rate even further as it has to buy expensive things it does not need to bring down the trade deficit. All this may even cause Indian manufacturers to have decreased access to the American consumer market if Modi does not bring down tariffs.
The US is in the process of instituting a new foreign policy; one which is harsh and unapologetically self-serving. India — where Islamophobia has been made a part of national culture — felt that the also Islamophobic Trump may make exceptions for them. The new America under Trump, however, is simply not interested.
At the press conference during his visit, Modi mouthed an overwrought comparison and combination of ‘Make America Great Again’ and ‘Make India Great Again’ — “mega partnership for prosperity”. To nobody, except the Modi supporters in the room, did this statement make sense.
The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.
Published in Dawn, February 22nd, 2025