Why Does China Need Another Railway Through Central Asia? – Analysis

Perhaps the cause isn't economic gain.

China plans to build a new railway line from the western part of the country through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, with access to Iran and Europe.

According to Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway will begin in October this year and will cost $4.7 billion. He announced it on May 6.

Simultaneously, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Akylbek Zhaparov announced that the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway would require approximately $8 billion.

Various sources plan to build a total of 18 stations, 81 large and medium-sized bridges, and 41 tunnels along the approximately three hundred-kilometer stretch of railway in Kyrgyzstan. Along the way, railway trains will cross earthquake-prone mountain ranges more than 3,000 meters above sea level. About 13,000 earthquakes occur in Kyrgyzstan every year, and over the past 150 years, the country has recorded more than ten strong earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0, aggravating the situation.

Apparently, this does not stop the project's initiators. The Kyrgyz president is enthusiastic and confident that the road will be built in 3–4 years, although according to the National Railway Company of Kyrgyzstan, the project will take 6–8 years. Zhaparov also claims that the country will earn $200 million per year from the project. However, in order to earn them, Kyrgyzstan will have to compete with Russia and Kazakhstan, which are increasing the capacity of their routes—the Northern and Middle Corridors.

The Northern Transport Corridor passes through Russia, and with the outbreak of hostilities, the importance of this route declined for some time. Nevertheless, the majority of cargo from China to Europe travels through this route, unaffected by the political situation because most of the cargo is not sanctioned. In the first quarter of 2024, cargo transit through Russia increased by 44%.

Kazakhstan, another major country to the south of Russia, shares a border with the People's Republic of China that is about 1,783 kilometers long. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, known as the Middle Corridor, passes through its territory, involving the railway and maritime administrations of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and a number of other countries. In addition to the Middle Corridor, four other transport corridors—the Northern, Central Asian, Southern, and North-South—run through the territory of Kazakhstan, connecting almost all parts of the Eurasian continent.

Kazakhstan, for example, is currently constructing second tracks on the Dostyk-Mointy section, which spans 836 kilometers. This will allow a five-fold increase in the throughput capacity of transit cargo on this section and increase the speed of container trains to 1,500 kilometers per day. In the south of the country, the Darbaza-Maktaaral railway line, with a total length of 153 kilometers, is under construction. Also under construction is the 104-kilometer-long Zhetygen-Kazbek Bi railway line, which bypasses the city of Almaty and will reduce transit cargo delivery time. Bakhty-Ayakoz, a 270 km long railway line on the border with China, will increase cargo transit from China to 20 million metric tons per year.

A 2013 UK Foreign Office report noted that Kyrgyzstan could only compete by engaging in a “transit tariff war” with Kazakhstan to attract Chinese goods, which would ultimately be economically disadvantageous to both countries.

The distribution of shares in the future railway enterprise remains unknown. Kyrgyzstan has yet to repay a staggering sum of $8 billion. They carefully conceal the source of funding and repayment terms.

Kyrgyz economist Azamat Akeneyev believes that Kyrgyzstan’s main contribution will be to provide land for the road: “Other participants are likely to provide the financing. However, we cannot expect the road to belong to us and the revenues to Kyrgyzstan. I think that our partners will finance us, we will provide the land, and there will be some joint management.”

The timeline of the negotiations between China and Kyrgyzstan, which started back in the 1990s, suggests that the parties came to an agreement in 2015, when the Kyrgyz side proposed the creation of a joint Kyrgyz-Chinese company. The Kyrgyz company would take over the “provision of land plots” for the railway's construction, while the Chinese company would fully finance the construction and infrastructure.

What it means to “provide land plots” for which they are willing to pay billions of dollars remains a mystery. Some experts warn the Central Asian countries about the project's unfavorable aspects.

Dr. Max Georg Mayer, the Hanns Seidel Foundation's Project Manager in Central Asia, expresses concern about the risks associated with this project. He emphasizes that the CKU railway project is not a gift for the Kyrgyz people. “It is highly likely that Chinese loans will finance this project, which will subsequently require repayment. The PRC currently holds 43 percent of Kyrgyzstan's external debt. It is therefore not unreasonable to fear that the Kyrgyz Republic may fall into a debt trap,” Dr. Meyer warns.

Infrastructure for projects like [the CKU railway] does not usually cover their capital costs, or at least not for very many years. They are being built for other reasons, Andrew Grantham, editor of the Railway Gazette, explains to Eurasianet.;

Kubat Rakhimov, an economist from Kyrgyzstan, argues that a road through the Kyrgyz Republic "will not bring great benefits, and the Kyrgyz elite does not want to realize and accept this." In his opinion, Uzbekistan and China are the main beneficiaries of the project.

The Kyrgyz government wanted to seize this opportunity to connect the north to the south. In this mountainous country, the north and south are largely cut off from each other. And historically, people in these regions have different mentalities, which sometimes leads to different levels of conflict.

In terms of conflicts, this country is known for its political instability. The people of Kyrgyzstan overthrew all their former presidents. Small-scale conflicts are also not uncommon in the country. For example, in May 2024, mass riots against foreigners occurred in Bishkek. This led to the hospitalization of 28 people, including foreigners, with injuries.

Kyrgyzstan shares over 900 kilometers of state border with Tajikistan, most of which is undemarcated. Relations with Tajikistan remain tense due to border uncertainty. Drug trafficking and religious extremism are not alien to the region. The implementation of the CKU railway will create a risk that members of the Tablighi Jamaat will establish contacts with Uighur extremist organizations in Qinjiang.

Expert opinions suggest that the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project poses risks in terms of payback and political unpredictability. Furthermore, its design aims to bolster China's economic and political dominance in Central Asia and change the balance of power on the world stage.