West Philippine Sea Flashpoint, Alleged ‘Gentleman’s Agreement’, And BRP Sierra Madre: A Geopolitical Enmeshed n Meta-Narratives Of US, China, Japan, And ASEAN – Analysis

In March 27, 2024, China Coast Guard ship 4103 showed holes in its hull above waterline after collision with the Philippine Coast Guard's Japanese-made Parola-class 44-meter long, 320 ton multirole response cutter BRP Cabra (MRRV-4409). Later, it was followed by series of more serious coercive acts of China against the fisherfolks and event to the territorial integrity of the Philippines. 

As we may recall, China Coast Guard (CCG) and Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM) vessels made an aggressive interference against a RORE mission to BRP Sierra Madre (LS57) at Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal. On June 17, 2024 (Monday) at5:59 AM, CCG and CMM vessels used dangerous maneuvers, including ramming and towing against supply boats of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).

Chinese maritime forces injured eight Philippine Navy (PN) soldiers, one of whom incurred serious injury, and seized their guns in a violent encounter. The seriously injured PN personnel, whohailed from the Naval Special Operations Group (NAVSOG), reportedly lost one of his fingers.The Chinese maritime forces also punctured the PN's rigid hull inflatable boats (RHIB), causing the troops to lose their balance and their mobility. Note that even last year, the CCG rammed and water cannoned acivilian-led Christmas convoy planning to deliver provisions to Filipino fishermen and troops (December 10, 2023). And prior to the recent June 17 incident in WPS, four (4) CCG ships and six (6) Chinese maritime militia boats fired water cannons at PCG vessel BRP Bagacay and Bureau of Fisheries and Acquatic Resources (BFAR) vessel BRP Bankaw in Bajo de Masinloc during a resupply mission and maritime patrol operation last April 30, 2024

On a high note, arising from the President's visit to the Western Command of the Armed Forces of the Philippines in Palawan last June 23 gives the following narratives and policy direction. After his talk to the troops, especially to the members of the WESCOM who conducted theRORE mission to Ayungin Shoal last June17[1](where one soldier's thumb was decapitated and seriously injured) and more or less '8 arms' were illegally and treacherously held captive by Chinese Coast Guards (CCGs), the President gave his commitment and resolve to support the dedicated and courageous men and women in the Armed Forces in their fight to defend Philippine territory. As he mentioned in his speech last 24 June,"(h)istory itself can tell that we have never, never in the Philippines yielded to any foreign power. We owe to our forefathers the duty to keep the freedoms that they fought, bled and died for, and that they presently enjoy.With this, the Philippines has been on strong stance as declared by the President in numerous instances, the Philippines will not give up an inch, not even a millimeter of its territory to any foreign power.

This strategic intent was guided by over-all geopolitical alignment of the Philippines in Indo-Pacific Security and ASEAN partnerships. On one occasion, Sec. Teodoro of the Defense Department said that the incident inAyungin is not a misunderstanding or an accident. It is a deliberate act of the Chinese officialdom to prevent Philippines from completing the resupply mission. He said,"After our visit to our troops in Palawan yesterday, where the President personally talked to the troops involved in the RORE we have now come to a conclusion that it was not a misunderstanding or an accident. We are not downplaying the incident. It was an aggressive and illegal use of force. We, however, continue to find peaceful solutions to this issue. As pointed out by the President, "we are not in the business to instigate wars. The Philippines is a responsible state. We will continue to exercise our freedoms and rights in support of our national interest, in accordance with international law."

United States, on one hand, categorically said that US policy on the West Philippine Sea has not changed but to support Philippines through Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). As of today (4 July), President Bongbong Marcos gave the green light for the acquisition of Multi-Role Fighters according to AFP Chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. during today'sfirst-semester command conference in Camp Aguinaldo, QuezonCity. He reiterates that there is no decision yet as to what muti-role fighter to get and how many are they getting.

On the other hand, Rep. Raul "Boboy" C. Tupas lead a dialogue on May 20, 2024 on allegedGentleman's Agreement. Former Executive Secretary Salvador C. Medialdea, former Secretary of National Defense and now Chairperson of the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) Delfin N. Lorenzana, and former National Security Adviser Hermogenes C. Esperon, Jr. were called last legislative inquiry about a thorough Investigation in aid of legislation on the reportedGentlemen's Agreement between former President Rodrigo R. Duterte and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Said officials all denied the existence of analleged "Gentleman's Agreement"but shared some information on the interactions between former President Rodrigo R. Duterte and People's Republic of China President Xi Jinping.

Former ES Medialdea clarified that the"status quo"practiced by the Duterte administration stemmed from the previous agreement entered by former Secretary of National Defense Voltaire Gazmin and an official from the Chinese embassy to supply only food and water to the troops in BRP Sierra Madre located in Ayungin Shoal. Note that a gentleman's agreement(e.g., executive agreement)is allowed under international law and does not require any formalities, however, its validity depends on its contents which must not be contrary to the Constitution of any state. Nonetheless, if there was an agreement, it was rescinded by current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

US, Japan, and Philippines Defense Formula

Meanwhile, prior to Trilateral Summit between US, Japan, and Philippines last April, there was a call among agencies for a political dialogue to tackleSenate Bill No. 654 proposed by Sen. Tolentinoon establishingPhilippine Navy forward operating bases last April 3, 2024.Director Jose Harry M. Barber of the Policy and Development and Planning Service of OCD impressed something well-grounded during the last hearing on some HADR concerns last March 5, 2024. He manifested agency's full support of the passage of subject bills and acknowledged the proposed bills' significance particularly at the local level, through nature-based solution and cost-effective initiative.

Following this, the Department of National Defense and other security sector member agencies became busy for the trilateral summit recently conducted. As a backgrounder, on 10 April 2024,US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio held an important bilateral summitwhich resulted in a historic agreement that upgrades their longstanding defense alliance, includes the following:

1. Establishment of a US-Japan Alliance Joint Command and Control Structure that will allow seamless integration of operations and capabilities between US forces in Japan and the Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF), allowing for greater interoperability and planning during contingency and peacetime situations

2. Japan together with the US and Australia would work on upgrading and integrating their defense communications and air defense networks to counter air and missile threats

3. Japan would work together with US and Australia in joint development and manufacture of future weapon and defense systems

4. Japanese shipyards will be participating in maintenance and repair of US naval ships in the region

5. Japan and the US will establish a working group for cooperation on fighter pilot training, including development and use of AI and advanced simulators, and co-development and co-production of jet trainers.

6. The US committed to start the training pipeline and ship modifications for Japan to acquire operational capability of the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) system, and cooperation in the development of the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) program to counter high-end, regional hypersonic threats.

On one hand, the United States has reiterated its unwavering commitment to the defense of Japan underArticle V of the US-Japan Treaty of MutualCooperation (their version of Mutual Defense Treaty)as well as confirming the inclusion of Senkaku Islands in the treaty coverage, as well as using the US' full range of capabilities including nuclear capabilities. Although not yet an actual commitment, the US together with its AUKUS partners Australia and the United Kingdom are considering includingJapan in the AUKUS Pillar IIprogram which aims to developed advanced defense capabilities.

Now, these developments will definitely affect the security landscape of the region especially as Japan has started to make changes in the interpretation of its pacifist Constitution, as well as increase its defense spending to 2% of its GDP and making it the 3rd largest defense spender in the world in a few years.

Way Ahead and Strategic Policy Direction as a Nation

As way forward, just last quarter, the United States Senators Bill Hagerty (R-TN) and Tim Kaine (D-VA), members of thehttps://www.kaine.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/philippines_enhanced_resilience_act_of_2024.pdfSenate Foreign Relations Committee, on 10 April 2024 introduced the Philippines Enhanced Resilience Act of 2024 (PERA Act), a bill to strengthen and modernize the U.S.-Philippines alliance through significantly increased U.S. security assistance.

The bipartisan legislation follows increased aggression by Beijing in the South China Sea and comes as the United States, Japan, and the Philippines hold a leaders-level summit in Washington, D.C., on 11 April 2024.

If approved as a law, the Philippines Enhanced Resilience Act of 2024 will authorize$500 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF)grant assistance to the Philippines annually for each of fiscal years 2025 through 2029—a total of $2.5 billion over five fiscal years. That is more than enough to allow thePhilippine Air Force (PAF) to procure a squadron of F-16 Block 70 Vipers,and if the Philippine government can find more funding, can be added to allow the DND to procure between 36 to 42 Vipers over the next 5 years by bulk buying and make use of economies of scale.

Further, the Philippines will continue its rotation and resupply missions on a regular basis for the welfare of Filipino troops in the BRP Sierra Madre being a matter of utmost importance. In order to maintain security of Philippine troops and ordinary citizens, stance on an international platform as crucially needs to be considered no matter how Philippines wants to held China accountable in legal platform; as diplomatic and political security / defense cooperation efforts must be intensified to garner international support and recognition of our sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea.

As a nation in the verge of security pandemonium, may we not forget to call out China's act as the aggressive militarization and dangerous tactical operation in order for Filipinos to show more commitment to finding peaceful solutions while pushing for mandatory ROTC with well-templated Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR),if passed. At this juncture diplomatic channels must be utilized to address this issue in accordance with international law. Furthermore, there must be an increased funding for the welfare and training of our troops stationed in the West Philippine Sea. Filipino troops must be equipped and prepared to handle any aggressive maneuvers by foreign forces.

Moreover, we hope the Congress' support for the approval of budget allocations aimed at enhancing our maritime defense capabilities will be pushed as soon as possible. And lastly, genuine and in good faith recognition and support for the families of those affected by those past incidents are also vital. These are not trivial matters Philippines and even ASEAN region can easily ignore, and so - we hope to engage more with international partners to ensure regional stability and security in the region amidst enmeshed geopolitical balancing act.

*Ideas and/or views expressed here are entirely independent and not in any form represent author's organization and affiliation.