Who Could Challenge Harris As A Presidential Candidate, And Who Could Be The VP Pick? – Analysis

By Pete Baumgartner

(RFE/RL) -- U.S. President Joe Biden's endorsement of his vice president, Kamala Harris, to replace him as the Democratic Party's candidate for president has given her a strong position as the front-runner -- but it does not officially make her the candidate.

Harris has garnered many endorsements from Democratic members of Congress, former politicians, and major donors in the hours since Biden's announcement on July 21 that he was withdrawing from the presidential race.

They include former President Bill Clinton and his wife -- former Secretary of State and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton -- along with more than half of the Democrats in the Senate and dozens of Democratic members of the House of Representatives.

But several major Democratic Party figures have not yet endorsed her -- including ex-President Barack Obama, former House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer -- to challenge Republican nominee Donald Trump in the November 5 election.

The nomination will officially be made at the Democratic National Convention to be held in Chicago, Illinois, from August 19-22.

Calls For An 'Open Process'

The Democratic National Committee's rules committee -- which is required to meet two days after a candidate who has won the primary contests withdraws from a presidential election -- will meet on July 24 to determine the timeline and process for deciding on the party's presidential candidate.

Harris or a competitor must win the support of a majority of the more than 4,000 Democratic Party Convention candidates.

Despite the calls for an open process to be held with multiple candidates, no one had stepped forward to throw their hat in the ring several hours after Biden's announcement.

"It is telling that no one has announced…that they're going to challenge [Harris]. And so right now she is the odds on favorite to be the nominee," Matthew Dallek, a presidential historian at George Washington University, told RFE/RL.

Possible Challengers To Harris

Though some possible challengers have already announced their support for Harris -- including California Governor Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro -- these are some of the people who still could challenge her:

-- Gretchen Whitmer (52 years old), governor of Michigan. A popular governor in a crucial swing state, Whitmer is relatively young and has national recognition, as she has often been mentioned as a possible replacement for Biden if he withdrew. Trump is currently leading opinion polls in Michigan and Whitmer could help secure the state for the Democrats.

-- Joe Manchin (76), senator from West Virginia. A maverick legislator who has angered Democrats for not always voting with his fellow Democrats, Manchin registered as an independent earlier this year. He said on July 22 that he is "pushing the process" and expressed hope that others will join in the race to be the Democratic nominee.

-- Other possible candidates include Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker (59), New Jersey Senator Cory Booker (55), Maryland Governor Wes Moore (45), and former first lady Michelle Obama (60).

Who Could Be Harris's Vice President?

If support continues to coalesce around Harris and she gains the nomination, then the spotlight will be on who would run as her vice president.

The possible challengers to Harris would likely become leading candidates to be her vice president.

The one exception might be Newsom, because he's from California, the same state as Harris, and there is a clause in the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution that has been interpreted as disallowing two candidates from the same state from running on the same ticket.

Herewith are the most likely candidates to join Harris as her vice president:

-- Shapiro (51), Pennsylvania governor. Much like Whitmer, Shapiro is a popular young governor of an important swing state. Biden won Pennsylvania in the 2020 presidential election but has been running behind Trump in the polls.

-- Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (60). Like Shapiro, Kelly is from an important battleground state that is key for Democrats to win the election. Biden won Arizona in 2020 but has been polling well behind Trump in recent months. A former astronaut and U.S. Navy captain, Kelly is married to former congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who was severely injured in an assassination attempt in 2011.

-- Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (46). A popular Democratic leader in a state that strongly votes Republican, Beshear is viewed as a candidate that could win votes from independents and moderate Republicans. First considered to be a possible challenger to Harris, Beshear endorsed her on July 22 to be the presidential candidate.

-- North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (67). Another popular Democrat in an important swing state that has recently voted for Republicans in national elections. Much like Beshear, he could attract moderate Republicans and independents to vote for Harris.

Unless the Democratic National Committee's rules committee changes the timeline when it meets on July 24, virtual voting by the delegates to the party convention is set to begin in early August. That does not leave much time for Democrats to nominate Harris or someone else and for that candidate to select a vice president.

• Pete Baumgartner is the editor for Central Asia and China for RFE/RL's Central Newsroom in Prague.