After The Second Independence: Bangladesh’s Journey Ahead – OpEd

Bangladeshi university students staged demonstrations against quotas for highly sought-after public service posts in July of 2024, thereby bringing down Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's 15-year government. Originally set in 1972 by former President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman—founding father of Bangladesh—these quotas set aside 30% of public sector positions for veterans of the 1971 Independence War against Pakistan. Although the employment quota was not contentious at the time, over time it encouraged political cronyism, therefore supporting the Awami League party of power.

Following a similar demonstration in 2018 under previous PM Hasina (daughter of Skeikh Mujibur Rahman), the July 2024 anti-quota rally is the follow-up to PM Hasina's administration dropped the quota in front of an approaching election, therefore ending the violent student demonstrations in 2018.

Protests flared as Bangladesh's High Court reinstated the quota in June of 2024, then swiftly became violent. The reaction of PM Hasina to the demonstrators—calling them "razakar," a term for people who supported Pakistan in 1971—and terrorists fuels the demonstrations further. Along with a total internet and communication blackout, curfew was enforced. With a "shoot on sight" directive, the government's forceful reaction by August 4th helped to account for nearly 300 killings among the police, Bangladesh Border Guard, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), and army.

The face of the student protest was images and videos of Abu Sayeed, executed at point blank. Not even little toddlers were spared violence carried out during the curfew by these armed troops. Given the degree of violence, the student activists' 9-point demand quickly changed to a 1-point demand asking Hasina to resign.

Aiming to surround Hasina's official house, hundreds of thousands of students and typical Bangladeshis marched to Dhaka on August 5th; she resigned and left for India with her younger sister, therefore ending her 15-year tenure.

The July student-led movement is nothing less than a revolution bringing Bangladesh, the eighth most populated nation, to a historical junction. Bangladesh's historical relevance and the degree of bloodshed there reflect those of the Tiananmen Square tragedy. Although China forbids discussing the Tiananmen massacre, Bangladeshi society has embraced the cause of the July Revolutionists. The outcome of the July revolution and Bangladesh's democracy will depend on what the present Bangladeshi politicians do.

Waker-uz-Zaman, the Chief of Army Staff, seized over right after Hasina resigned and fled and promised to establish an interim administration. Of course, one worries about Bangladesh sliding into a military control trap. Like Pakistan in the area, Bangladesh has a history of military government.

Still, the circumstances before and after Hasina's resignation suggest a smaller likelihood of military government in Bangladesh. Political watchers and members of civil society urged Hasina to stand down and give over authority to the military (who would then create an interim administration) while the violence raged in July. There was not military intent to seize control.

Moreover, the military conferred with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islam, and the Jatiya Party hours after Hasina resigned. General Zaman visited with the student leaders of the anti-quota demonstration and representatives of civil society with the chiefs of other military branches and President Mohammed Shabuddin inside the day. Both of these events show a readiness to have an inclusive political process and the opening of an honest communication with the pertinent stakeholders to guide Bangladesh's political destiny.

Apart from little worries about military control, other more urgent security issues have surfaced. The Bangladeshi police have been on strike since August 6th in reaction to police losses during the demonstration and protesters persecution. Maintaining peace and order on the streets is thus now an urgent problem. To fight thefts, the student demonstrators have taken over guiding traffic in the streets and even nighttime neighborhood protection for local citizens. But the conflict between the police and protesters and the following police strike suggests a pressing need to rebuild public confidence in the law enforcement. That has to be addressed by the temporary administration.

Another security issue attracting media attention both locally and abroad is violence directed at religious minorities. At least 97 homes and businesses run by religious minorities were assaulted and plundered on August 5 and 6, said general secretary Rana Dasgupta of Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council. Student activists have so taken up defending churches and temples. A commendable line of action, vigilance on violence against religious minorities fits the core theme of this youth revolution—anti-discrimination. On the other side, the degree of violence and destruction after the collapse of Hasina's government reflects the lack of police power and authority. Regardless of creed, vandals and criminals will exploit the anarchy. Not to add, part of the violence is politically driven; homes and offices of members of the BNP and Awami League have been targets. Indian media is rife with false allegations of violence against Hindus, some of which have been fact-checked since then. Restoring peace and order and public confidence in the police is just one of the priorities; another is alertness against such false assertions.

Following the demand of the student demonstrators, Nobel laureate Dr. Mohammad Yunus was announced to be leading the interim administration. The President and the military generals agreed on this important student demand in order to create a civilian temporary administration fast.

Respected both locally and globally, Dr. Yunus is the founder of Grameen Bank. For Bangladesh's future, his selection as leader of the temporary administration might have geopolitical as well as financial importance. Driven by his skills as an economist and creator of microcredit, Dr. Yunus received recognition from all around that would help Bangladesh's present unstable economy. The nation has been running declining foreign reserves since mid-2022, which finally led the Hasina government to ask the World Bank and the IMF for bailouts. The professional background of Dr. Yunus will help to increase global faith in Bangladesh's economy.

Recent interviews with Dr. Yunus provide signals about his foreign policy orientation. According to his vision of Bangladesh, the young people of the country—a sizable fraction of the population—should be encouraged creatively. According to his view, Bangladesh could create its own imprint on the international scene as a leader of climate change, therefore addressing wealth disparity and poverty, surpassing the balance between regional powers (India and China).

Creating stability in Bangladesh would depend critically on the interim administration under the direction of Dr. Yunus rebuilding law and order and restoring public confidence in the police and government. Through an inclusive and open political discussion, both of which will help to set the scene for a free and fair election in not-too-distant future, the interim administration must pay popular requests for constitutional and electoral changes top attention.

Finally, but just as importantly, the interim administration should prioritize bringing Sheikh Hasina to justice. Hasina's presence in India can cause issues for future ties between India and Bangladesh. Sheltering Hasina helps India's biassed image to Bangladesh to be favored by strengthening the bonds between Hasina and India. Bringing Hasina before the International Criminal Court would help to establish the kind of justice society of Bangladesh demands.