Who will Trump pick as his VP? Betting markets show a clear favorite — and some unusual activity
It's anyone's guess who former President Trump might choose as his running mate in 2024, and the bets are flying.
As of Friday, Ohio Sen. JD Vance was the clear favorite to become the Republicans' vice presidential nominee, followed by North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum across three betting markets — but there is plenty of chance that Trump could pick a wild card.
Traders on prediction platform PolyMarket give Vance a 45% chance of becoming Trump pick and a 26% shot for Burgum. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio sits in third place in the running with 10%, followed by South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, both of whom have odds of 8%.
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On PredictIt, Vance was seen as having a 44% chance to Burgum's 18% and Rubio's 12% odds. BetUS.com put Vance at 44%, as well, but Burgum had better odds on that site at 30% implied probability, while Rubio was at 12.5%.
Tim Williams, director of public relations for BetUS, said that while Vance and Burgum are favored in terms of the odds, they are not necessarily favored in terms of the betting action the market is seeing.
Williams explained that despite his long 90-to-1 odds, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has seen a notable number of wagers as Trump’s potential VP pick, and so has Scott, who would pay out at 18-to-1.
But perhaps most notable so far, Williams noted, is the unusual number of wagers BetUS has received this week on Kevin Faulconer, a not-so-well-known former mayor of San Diego who currently sits at 100-to-1 odds.
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"We received a significant number of wagers over the last 72 hours on Faulconer, so much so that oddsmakers temporarily suspended betting on Mr. Faulconer while they investigated the possible reason for the sudden interest in the former San Diego mayor," Williams told FOX Business. "And we’re not just talking San Diego here, wagers were coming in from New York, Florida, and even Washington D.C."
Williams noted that Faulconer was the GOP mayor of a very liberal city and is considered a moderate Republican — fiscally conservative and socially liberal. Years ago, he spoke about his vision for the "new California Republican."
BetUS's oddsmakers were unable to explain the unusual wagering activity for Faulconer to become Trump's VP pick, so wagering on the candidate has been re-enabled.
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"Whether or not the betting action we have seen on Faulconer is simply wishful thinking by bettors wanting to see a more socially moderate Republican VP in the White House, or someone knows something we don’t is anyone’s guess," Williams concluded.