Don't use science fiction to inspire public policy on AI
If policymakers rely on fictional scenarios as reasons to regulate AI, America risks losing its global lead on AI and may never realize the full benefits of the technology.
At the end of "Terminator 2: Judgment Day," Arnold Schwarzenegger’s T-800 character is lowered into the molten metal to prevent his processing chip from falling into the wrong hands. As the Terminator goes under, he gives the iconic thumbs up.
The Terminator and other fake robots and AIs should stay in that molten pit and out of today’s public policy discussions about AI.
Policymakers should not reference or rely on fictional scenarios as reasons to regulate AI. Otherwise, America risks losing its global lead on AI and American citizens could never realize the full benefits of the technology.
Although the comparisons are inaccurate, there is an appeal.
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Stories and myths are core to who we are as human beings and references to stories to grab and hold attention are a deeply human trait. They create a shared narrative and are a reference point we can all understand.
Even though they’ve likely used AI, most people have likely not thought about AI except in the context of science fiction, which makes references to stories a tempting communication technique.
However, that tendency does not make it helpful and it’s likely harmful.
Setting policy based on fictional AI characters and scenarios can result in regulations that are detached from actual conditions, hindering potential positive uses of AI in the real world.
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A prominent example of this error recently came from the White House.
According to reporting by the Associated Press:
"At Camp David one weekend, [the president] relaxed by watching the Tom Cruise film ‘Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One.’ The film’s villain is a sentient and rogue AI known as "the Entity" that sinks a submarine and kills its crew in the movie’s opening minutes. ‘If he hadn’t already been concerned about what could go wrong with AI before that movie, he saw plenty more to worry about,’ said [deputy White House chief of staff Bruce] Reed, who watched the film with the president."
After, in late October 2023, he signed a sweeping executive order on AI – which is the third largest executive order in American history and meant to curb bad use cases of AI systems.
In a July 2023 Senate hearing on regulating AI, Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., equated fiction with fact when he said there’s an urgent need to regulate AI because, "The future is not science fiction or fantasy, it’s not even the future, it’s here and now."
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It’s unclear what science fiction scenario he had in mind other than a vague notion of AI as a "scary" technology, as he said earlier in that same opening statement.
It is difficult to find a public policy sector that invokes fiction as much as technology policy. Science fiction and fantasy scenarios seem like an odd fit for discussions about financial regulation, tax law, health care and agriculture.
The exceptions are perhaps energy policy, defense and homeland security, and biotech and bio-ethics.
Public policy at all levels should be based on fact, not fiction. Invoking fictional AI is like comparing a teddy bear to a grizzly bear: they resemble each other but have capabilities so different it’s not even worth the comparison.
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Almost every fictional depiction of an AI system operates off of energy and material resources that don’t exist and at best are entirely theoretical. We don’t craft policies based on magical abilities or scenarios from Harry Potter, likewise we should steer clear of fictional AI guiding our public policy.
Fake scenarios should not guide reality because, if they do, then the benefits of AI and other innovations could never come about.
And the benefits are enormous.
Analysts at PwC estimate AI will add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030. Generative AI systems found a way to fight antibiotic resistant bacteria. We can all expect higher quality, more personalized video entertainment and educational opportunities from AI systems.
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All of these benefits would impact all demographics and income levels so those with the lowest incomes stand to benefit the most.
Crafting policy that’s not based in reality will mean we have bad policy with negative effects in the real world. AI is already boosting productivity and as systems develop and suffuse more economic activity, economic growth will rise.
If laws are crafted in order to prevent science fiction scenarios, then those benefits are at serious risk of never coming to be.
Policymakers should keep fictional AI out of the state Capitols and halls of Congress and leave it where it belongs: in the movies and books we love.
An abundant future that surpasses our imagination is at stake.