Fox News Poll: Harris closes gap with Trump in Sun Belt states
While support for Donald Trump has held steady, Kamala Harris has improved on Joe Biden’s 2024 election numbers in four battleground states, driven by strong support among women, Black voters, and young voters. In addition, while Trump leads on top issues, more voters see Harris as the one who can unite the country -- and who will "fight for people like you." That’s according to new Fox News statewide surveys in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Each survey includes about 1,000 registered voters and was conducted August 23-26, post Democratic National Convention and just after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out and endorsed Trump.
The surveys, released Wednesday, find a close, two-way Harris-Trump race: Harris is up by 1 percentage point in Arizona and by 2 points in Georgia and Nevada, while Trump is ahead by 1 point in North Carolina. All are within the margin of sampling error.
In past Fox News surveys, Biden trailed Trump in each state: by 5 points in both Arizona and Nevada (June), by 6 in Georgia (April), and by 5 points in North Carolina (February).
The new surveys find Trump achieves his 2020 vote percentage in the head-to-head race in every state except Georgia, while Harris meets or exceeds Biden’s 2020 vote share across the states.
In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by just over 1 point, while Biden narrowly won the other three states (Arizona and Georgia by less than 1 point and Nevada by over 2 points).
Overall, in an average of the four states, Harris is ahead of Trump by a single point in the two-way match-up, 50% to 49%. That 1-point Harris edge also holds among the 7 in 10 voters who say they are extremely motivated to cast a ballot this year.
"These results show Harris has succeeded at expanding the electoral map. When Biden was at the top of the ticket, the only pathway to an electoral college victory for the Democrat ticket was a sweep of the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson. "That’s no longer the case with these Sun Belt states in play." Anderson and Republican Daron Shaw makeup the bipartisan team that conducts Fox News surveys.
FOX NEWS POLL: NEW MATCHUP, SAME RESULT — TRUMP BESTS HARRIS BY ONE POINT
Harris receives 79% support among Black voters, 56% among Hispanics, 55% among those under age 30, and 51% among voters ages 65 and over. These numbers represent an improvement on Biden’s numbers in these Sun Belt states and approach what he ultimately achieved in 2020, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
There is a 22-point gender gap, as women prefer Harris by 11 points and men back Trump by 11.
Trump is carrying 65% of Whites without a college degree, 60% of rural voters, and 42% of Hispanics -- about the same as in 2020. He’s at 77% among White evangelical Christians, down from 83%. Yet, his support among Black voters has nearly tripled, from 7% to 19%.
Democrats are a touch more likely to back Harris (96%) than Republicans are to support Trump (94%), while Independents favor Harris by 6 points. Equal numbers of Trump’s 2020 supporters stick with him (94%) as Biden’s 2020 backers favor Harris (94%).
Harris is ahead by 8 points among voters who moved to their state in the last 10 years, while the much larger group of long-time residents prefers Trump by 1 point.
Among new voters (those who haven’t voted in a general election since before 2016), Harris is up by 1 point.
When third-party candidates Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, and Cornel West are included in the vote preference, Harris keeps her 1-point edge over Trump, 48-47%. Notably, three out of four voters with a favorable view of RFK Jr. back Trump.
By a 7-point margin, more voters see Harris as the candidate who will unite the country. Most Democrats (94%) feel that way, as do over half of Independents (52%) and a handful of Republicans (9%).
Voters are more divided over who will "fight for people like you," as 50% say Harris and 47% Trump. And despite Harris being the incumbent vice president, voters put her on par with Trump for "bringing needed change" (49% Harris, 48% Trump).
"Harris' campaign has accomplished something that seemed impossible three weeks ago: she is seen as the change candidate despite being the incumbent vice-president at a time when there is considerable anxiety about the state of the country and the administration's ratings are dismal," says Shaw. "For the moment, they have re-made what was a re-election campaign for Biden into a referendum on Trump."
More voters trust Trump on two of the three top issues, the economy and immigration, while Harris has a wide lead on abortion. She’s also favored on health care, while Trump is the choice to handle the Israel-Hamas war. In general, Trump’s issue leads have narrowed compared to his standing earlier this year, while Harris has expanded on Biden’s advantages.
Four voters in 10 say the economy will be the most important issue to their vote for president. Immigration and abortion are next, but they trail the economy by nearly 30 points. All other issues are in the single digits.
The Democratic ticket performs better on personal favorability ratings, as more Sun Belt voters view Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz favorably than unfavorably by 3 points, while Harris has a net negative rating by 1 point. The ratings for both Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance are underwater by 5 points. About 1 in 10 have never heard of Walz or Vance. Views of both Harris and Trump in these states are nearly identical to what they were in the 2020 Fox News Voter Analysis.
Ratings of Biden’s job performance are negative: 42% of voters approve and 58% disapprove. Among the 13% who "somewhat" disapprove of Biden’s job performance, Harris is up by 7 points over Trump in the two-way contest.
FOX NEWS POLL: DEAD HEAT BETWEEN HARRIS AND TRUMP IN MICHIGAN
"Campaigns experience a bump in poll numbers after their convention and that typically dissipates in the month following -- and that could be what happens here, but this isn’t a traditional campaign," says Anderson. "A lot of people thought Harris received a bump after Biden dropped out, but that has endured."
Democrats in down-ballot races outpace Harris, while Republicans trail Trump
In down-ballot races in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, the Democratic candidate leads by double digits, overperforming Harris by at least 5 points while the Republican candidate trails Trump by 7 or more. In the Arizona Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 56-41%. Democrat Jacky Rosen bests Republican Sam Brown by 55-41% in the Nevada Senate race. In the North Carolina gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Stein tops Republican Mark Robinson by 54-43%.
In Arizona & Nevada, three-quarters favor abortion referendum
Arizona and Nevada will have ballot initiatives on abortion rights this November. The surveys show three-quarters of voters in each state will vote yes. That includes at least half of Republicans (50% in Arizona and 54% in Nevada). Among the only ones against the initiatives are self-defined "very" conservative.
Toplines & Crosstabs
Combined States: Topline, Crosstabs
Arizona: Topline, Crosstabs
Georgia: Topline, Crosstabs
Nevada: Topline, Crosstabs
North Carolina: Topline, Crosstabs
More Fox News survey results can be found here.
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The battleground surveys were conducted August 23-26, 2024, and included 4,053 registered voters randomly selected from statewide voter files in Arizona (1,014), Georgia (1,014), Nevada (1,026), and North Carolina (999). In Arizona and Nevada, respondents were given the option of completing the interview in English or Spanish. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines and cellphones or completed the survey online after receiving a text. Results based on the combined sample have a margin of sampling error of ±1.5 percentage points, while for each individual state it is ±3 percentage points. The sampling error is higher among subgroups. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. In the combined results, each state is weighted proportionate to its share of the total number of registered voters across the four states.
Fox News' Victoria Balara contributed to this report.