VA gubernatorial candidate mocks Carville for saying she’ll lose, reminds him of failed 2024 prediction

Republican Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears hit back at Democratic Party strategist James Carville after he declared she will lose her upcoming gubernatorial race in the state.

The state leader ridiculed Carville’s prediction on "Fox & Friends" Friday, reminding the hosts of his failed predictions around the 2024 presidential race.

"James, my man, do you have some lottery numbers for me? Because you seem so certain," Earle-Sears quipped. "Except, you weren’t certain before with Biden and look where that got you."

On October 24, 2024, Carville wrote an op-ed for The New York Times entitled, "James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win." 

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The Democratic strategist made his predictions during the Thursday night episode of "Hannity", telling Fox News Channel host Sean Hannity, "The Democrats are almost certain to win the Virginia governor’s race – no, not almost – they are certain to win it." 

Recent polling out of Virginia showed that Sears is trailing Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., in the contest that will be decided in November. A Mason-Dixon Poll from late January revealed a tight race, with Earle-Sears trailing the congresswoman 44% to 47%.

A poll from Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) in January showed a less close race, with Earle-Sears trailing Spanberger by 10 points.

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Still, Earle-Sears cited polling showing her and Spanberger "neck and neck," telling Fox News Channel host Lawrence Jones III that her opponent is "worried" about voters choosing Earle-Sears to "continue" the "successes" of the Youngkin administration.

"We’re going to have more job creation, parents are still going to matter in their education, women will be women and men will be men, and our children will be safe – more money in your wallet," she declared. 

Earle-Sears – who was elected Lt. governor alongside Gov. Glenn Youngkin, R-Va., in 2021 – found it fair to question Carville’s predictive abilities, as he had been forced to eat crow over the party’s defeat in the presidential election.

Though she called out Carville’s prediction surrounding Biden’s re-election campaign, his actual blunder was insisting that then-Vice President Kamala Harris was going to beat Trump in the presidential election after she replaced Biden. 

"She’s got more money, got more energy, has a more united party, has better surrogates and he’s stone a-- nuts," he told MSNBC’s "Morning Joe" on the day before Trump beat Harris.

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Carville had even written an op-ed in "The New York Times" days prior to the election, in which he provided three reasons why he was "certain" that Harris would win.

After Harris’ stunning electoral defeat, Carville wrote another piece for The Times admitting he was wrong. "I thought Kamala Harris would win. I was wrong. While I’m sure we Democrats can argue that the loss wasn’t a landslide or take a little solace in our House performance, the most important thing for us now is to face that we were wrong and take action on the prevailing ‘why.’"

"We lost for one very simple reason: It was, it is and it always will be the economy, stupid," the strategist declared.

Elsewhere during the "Hannity" interview, Carville added that the Democratic Party will retake the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections and predicted that President Trump’s support will continue to implode.

Trump disputed Carville directly on Friday with a Truth Social post. 

It read, "I won the Presidential Election in a landslide, won ALL SEVEN SWING STATES, THE POPULAR VOTE, AND ALL FIFTY STATES SHIFTED REPUBLICAN, a record, and now I have the best polling numbers I’ve ever had. The Democrats, run by broken down losers like James Carville, whose weak of mind and body, are going crazy, and just don’t know what to do. They have lost their confidence and spirit - They have lost their minds!"

Trump added, "We are going to have big WINS for our Country, and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. It’s already happening, and will get bigger and better than ever before!"