Erdogan takes Turkey to new crossroads with mayor's arrest: analysts

Long accused by opponents of presiding over a drift into authoritarianism, analysts say Erdogan crossed a new line with the arrest last week of the elected mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, a popular and charismatic figure who made no secret of his desire to challenge the Turkish strongman.

Turkey's political life remains based on a cycle of municipal, presidential and legislative elections and it does not yet resemble Russia -- where presidential elections turned into a rubber stamp of Vladimir Putin's authority -- or Iran where the supreme leader is chosen for life by a clerical body.

But the apparent bid to eliminate Imamoglu as a political force represents a major turning point in modern Turkish history which is not without risks for Erdogan, analysts say, with tens of thousands pouring into the streets every night to protest.

"It may not yet be a dictatorship, but it is well on the way to becoming one," Didier Billion, deputy director of France's Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), told AFP.

"It's clear that there's been a kind of acceleration, a deepening of the government's repressive course," he added.

According to the Turkish interior ministry, over 1,400 people have been arrested after taking part in the demonstrations. Among them is AFP photographer Yasin Akgul, whose detention for covering the protest as a journalist the agency condemned as "unacceptable".

Billion said while the arrest of Imamoglu was the "spark that set off the fire" the protests were going further than demanding his release and "are the expression of a growing exasperation among a large part of the population, although not the whole population."
'Make or break'
Already looming large in Turkey is the shadow of the next presidential election, due by 2028, for which Imamoglu had been about to announce his candidacy just before his arrest.

In theory, Erdogan, 71, is barred by the constitution from standing again but speculation is rife he will circumvent this with an amendment or by calling snap polls before his full mandate expires.

He has dominated Turkey for almost a quarter of a century, with his Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) first winning power in 2002, Erdogan himself becoming premier in 2003 and then president from 2014. Since 2018, he has ruled in a presidential system with the office of premier abolished.

While international observers complain that Turkish elections are marked by an uneven playing field with opposition voices squeezed on state TV, there remains confidence in the voting process.

The arrest of Imamoglu is a move by Erdogan "to stay in power by eliminating his most popular rival," said Yusuf Can, coordinator for the Wilson Center's Middle East Program.

But he said Turkish people, especially the young, were braving a "lot of the police brutality and arrests" in a mass movement unseen in Turkey since the 2013 Gezi uprising over the redevelopment of an Istanbul park.

"Younger people in Turkey have lost faith in the future under Erdogan and essentially do not see a future under Erdogan. This is a make-or-break point for younger people especially," he said.

Mainstream television and newspapers have been brought under Erdogan's control in recent years with mainly Internet-based channels and publications offering an alternative viewpoint.
'Repression will increase'
As well as political risk, Erdogan is also flirting with financial peril.

The Turkish central bank has stepped in with mass interventions to prop up the lira, with economists saying it has spent more than $20 billion trying to prop up its value.

Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, said while it was possible the street demonstrations will "taper off over the next weeks" amid the crackdown, Erdogan "cannot control how people vote" even after consolidating all branches of power in the last years.

"It is closer to the Iranian or Russian system -- but still not there," she said. "The opposition can still have a good game if they play their cards right and maintain the coalition they have built in previous elections."

The situation poses a challenge as well as an opportunity for Imamoglu's opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), whose leader Ozgur Ozel, a former pharmacist and a much lower-profile figure than the Istanbul mayor, must decide how far to ride the protest wave.

Marc Pierini, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, said a "degree of panic" had set in among Erdogan supporters after recent polls highlighted Imamoglu's popularity.

"The protest will likely continue and may have already escaped from CHP control. Repression will increase inevitably. The impact on the economy will be very damaging. All this will sharply erode Erdogan's image."

But he added: "I am not sure at all it will erode his grip on power."