Pro bettors give their favorite Final Four bets on UConn, NC State and more
Respected bettors give their favorite wagers for UConn-Alabama and NC State-Purdue
We have an amazing Final Four in the 2024 men’s NCAA tournament, with both a dominant team (UConn) and a Cinderella story (NC State). The Huskies are only the fourth team favored by more than 11.5 points in a Final Four game in over 50 years.
For The Win asked a few respected bettors for their favorite wagers for Saturday’s two matchups.
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 UConn (-12, 160)
UConn just continues to roll. The Huskies are now the eighth-best college basketball team against the spread, holding a 26-12 (68.4 percent) ATS record. UConn blasted Illinois in the Elite Eight, crushing the Illini by 25 points despite only shooting 3-of-17 (17.6 percent) from beyond the arc. The Huskies have also been superb as a betting favorite (26-11 ATS, 70.3 percent).
Connecticut center Donovan Clingan is playing his most dominant basketball of the season. He scored 22 points with five blocks against Illinois and has scored 14 or more points in four of UConn’s last five games.
As great as UConn is on offense (81.4 PPG), its defense is extremely underrated. The Huskies rank fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, third in effective field goal percentage allowed and second in two-point percentage allowed. Their numbers have actually improved during the tournament, despite playing elite competition.
Connecticut’s poor shooting performance against Illinois was a huge anomaly. The Huskies led the Big East at 38.2 percent from deep within the conference and made 10 3-pointers against San Diego State in the Sweet 16. UConn’s balance and versatility make the Huskies extremely difficult to beat.
Connecticut has been so dominant, I simply cannot fade the Huskies. They have won their four tournament games by an average of 27.8 PPG and won last year’s National Championship by 17 points. The Huskies defense hasn’t allowed any team in the NCAA tournament to crack 60 points, including Illinois, who ranks fourth-best in the nation in adjusted-offensive efficiency per KenPom. Alabama has allowed 82 or more points in three of their four tournament games, which could translate to 90 points against an elite Connecticut attack. The Huskies train rolls into the National Championship finale Monday and covers this large spread.
The bet: Connecticut -11.5 – Mike Randle, FTN Network
Connecticut isn’t known for its pace (315th) but has no qualms about adopting a faster style against opponents that want to get out and run — especially those like Alabama, who are aiming to out-score, not out-defend. Alabama has allowed scores of 82, 87 and 96 in three of the four NCAA games and going back to SEC play, the Tide have hemorrhaged buckets with nine of their last 14 foes scoring 85 points or more in regulation. Pace of play alone will give the Huskies a surplus of shot attempts. When you factor in that Alabama will be the third-softest defense UConn has faced since Big East play started (ahead of Stetson and DePaul), my projection calls for 91-plus from Connecticut on Saturday night.
– Jason Logan, Covers
The bet: UConn team total over 85.5
Tristen Newton averages 6.7 rebounds on the season and this matchup with Alabama will see the pace pick up, with a lot more field goal attempts from both teams. The Crimson Tide will lean into the 3-pointer even more against UConn, which means longer rebounds coming off the rim, passing by the bigs and ending up in the hands of heady guards like Newton. At 6-foot-5, Newton is bigger than Bama’s backcourt of Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada and player projections call for more than seven boards on Saturday night. The over 6.5 rebounds for Newton is priced as high as -140 at sharp books but is a discounted -108 at FanDuel as of Tuesday afternoon.
— Logan
The bet: Tristen Newton over 6.5 rebounds (-108)
No. 11 NC State vs. No. 1 Purdue (-9, 146)
NC State has enjoyed some positive shooting regression from the perimeter, shooting 39 percent, 35 percent and 39 percent from 3-point range in its first three NCAA tournament games. The most impressive part of their victory over Duke in the Elite Eight, was their win despite a brutal 3-of-13 from deep. But all of the Wolfpack’s success is centered on the greatness of center DJ Burns. The 6-foot-9, 275-pound Winthrop transfer has been brilliant during NC State’s postseason run.
Since the start of the ACC tournament, Burns has averaged 16.6 PPG, while only reaching four fouls once during that span. He has also become a brilliant passer, with two games with seven assists. The public has continued to doubt NC State, assuming their run will end, but with two games left in the tournament is that a realistic concern?
Burns has been supported by 6-10 teammate Mohamed Diarra, who is averaging 11.8 rebounds per game in the tournament, including a massive 15-rebound performance against Marquette. The Wolfpack’s victory over Duke even overcame a limited performance by a foul-riddled Diarra (23 minutes played). If Burns and Diarra can stay on the floor, there is no reason NC State can’t stay close with Purdue in Saturday’s matchup.
The Boilermakers struggled against Dalton Knecht, allowing the Tennessee guard to score 37 points, making 6-of-12 from 3-point range. NC State’s guard combination of DJ Horne and Casey Morsell combine to average over 28 PPG, with junior Jayden Taylor yet to have a monster 3-point game in the tournament. Taylor shot 36.3 percent from deep this season and had two games in March with five 3s.
Purdue is a fantastic team, but there certainly can be a letdown after reaching the school’s first Final Four in 44 years. Braden Smith has been the Boilermakers’ second-leading scorer this season but has scored single digits in four of Purdue’s last six games. Can Purdue find its hot shooting stroke from deep, or will Edey need another 35-point performance to beat an incredibly hot Wolfpack team?
I’m taking the 9.5 points with an NC State team that should be able to at least keep this game within single digits.
— Randle
The bet: NC State +9.5