Underdogs made Euro 2024 group play delightfully unpredictable, but the knockout stages belong to the favorites

The Euro 2024 group stage is officially over, and hoo boy, it did not disappoint in sheer, unfiltered chaos.

Seemingly, every game in every group (sans England’s dreadful Group C) featured pace, creativity, and even late-stage drama (see Italy’s stunning last-minute goal in stoppage time against Croatia). Above all, this has already turned into the tournament of the underdogs.

In its first-ever major international soccer appearance, Georgia stunned heavyweight Portugal to earn a spot in the Round of 16. Another non-traditional power, Turkey, unthinkably knocked off the Czech Republic in the final moments of their last group game to get to the knockout rounds. Meanwhile, two Eastern European nations, Slovakia and Slovenia, did just enough to eke by through group play and also set themselves up as dark horses.

From start to finish, these Euros have been a roller coaster no one should want to get off of. Truly, that might have been the finest group stage in the tournament’s history.

But make no mistake — the Euro favorites will ensure this ride ends eventually.

WOW!!!!!! WHAT A MOMENT!!!!!!

GEORGIA DOES IT!!!! pic.twitter.com/NdXUNHUapc

— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 26, 2024

Even with proposed favorites France and England looking weaker than expected, that does not open the door to a team like Georgia making a Cinderella run to the Final. If anything, it mainly strengthens the title-winning case of a team like host Germany or the impeccably deep Spanish playing their unique brand of tiki-taka soccer.

I wouldn’t rule out a 2000 Greece or 2016 Portugal-type run. Depending on the draw — and some likely penalty kick luck — an unknown unexpectedly playing in the knockouts might find itself on the doorstep of history. If you personally want to bet on such an outcome, rolling with a squad like Slovakia wouldn’t be the worst idea if you found a great value.

But a word of caution.

There’s a reason that kind of Euro championship only happens once in a generation. If that. The best teams with the best talent win an overwhelming majority of the time. What a shocker, I know. And I’d be thoroughly surprised to see anything else happen through the rest of these Euros. None of these dark horses and tournament novices have enough quality to last roughly two more weeks of high-level soccer.

As the legendary Randy Savage once said, the cream will rise to the top.