College Football Playoff watch: Top-12 teams with the best playoff chances going into Week 1

The race to the College Football Playoff looks a lot different for the 2024 season as the postseason expanded this year from four teams to 12.

Never fear: There will still be debates and arguments among fan bases over which teams deserve or earned a spot in the playoff, but at least now, several of the top teams will be included. Four was just too small of a number.

Week 0 of the 2024 college football season featured a light schedule with only a handful of games. But for Week 1, we’re in full-blown season mode, and it’s going to be great.

So ahead of Week 1 games, let’s take a look at the top-12 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor algorithm.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL REALIGNMENT: A complete list of FBS teams and college football conferences for 2024-25

The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the Football Power Index.

Here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Thursday.

College football teams with the best playoff chances for Week 1

1. Georgia Bulldogs (0-0)

• Playoff: 79.0 percent
• National championship game: 32.0 percent
• Win championship: 21.5 percent

2. Oregon Ducks (0-0)

• Playoff: 76.3 percent
• National championship game: 24.2 percent
• Win championship: 12.4 percent

3. Texas Longhorns (0-0)

• Playoff: 68.7 percent
• National championship game: 21.8 percent
• Win championship: 12.1 percent

4. Ohio State Buckeyes (0-0)

• Playoff: 67.3 percent
• National championship game: 18.7 percent
• Win championship: 10.1 percent

5. Penn State Nittany Lions (0-0)

• Playoff: 59.3 percent
• National championship game: 13.5 percent
• Win championship: 6.5 percent

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-0)

• Playoff: 59.0 percent
• National championship game: 10.2 percent
• Win championship: 4.7 percent

7. Alabama Crimson Tide (0-0)

• Playoff: 57.6 percent
• National championship game: 15.6 percent
• Win championship: 8.7 percent

8. Tennessee Volunteers (0-0)

• Playoff: 37.7 percent
• National championship game: 5.7 percent
• Win championship: 2.9 percent

9. Missouri Tigers (0-0)

• Playoff: 37.5 percent
• National championship game: 5.6 percent
• Win championship: 2.6 percent

10. Oklahoma Sooners (0-0)

• Playoff: 37.0 percent
• National championship game: 6.4 percent
• Win championship: 2.9 percent

11. Clemson Tigers (0-0)

• Playoff: 29.0 percent
• National championship game: 4.0 percent
• Win championship: 1.5 percent

12. Michigan Wolverines (0-0)

• Playoff: 28.8 percent
• National championship game: 4.2 percent
• Win championship: 1.8 percent