A Bills breakthrough, deciphering the Commanders D and the best bets of the NFL Conference Championship Games

After a rough start to the 2025 NFL Playoffs, we’re back in the black. A four-unit swing in the Divisional Round kept our betting expert, the Rhode Island Scumbag, and I profitable, albeit only modestly. We’re up a combined three units through two weeks of the postseason — roughly on par with our 18 unit advantage over the 18 weeks of the regular season.

Now we head into a two-game slate that will decide who plays in Super Bowl 59. Will the Washington Commanders continue their Cinderella run that started with a Las Vegas win total of 7.5 games and threatens to end with the Vince Lombardi Trophy paraded through our nation’s capital? Will the Buffalo Bills finally return to the glory days of Marv Levy while Levy’s still around to enjoy it?

Let’s try and make some money this week. All Scumbag analysis and picks are in blockquotes below. My non-Scumbag picks follow.

Last week would’ve been much better had Philadelphia covered, rather than the end result of a gross push. Still, a two-unit profit wasn’t terrible. If anyone chose to parlay the Saturday games, you net a tidy profit.

With two games to go, it’s more of a coin flip than anything else in both cases. Keep in mind, underdogs last week went 2-1-1. Let’s take a look at what’s in store this week.

Scumbag Play No. 1: Buffalo Bills +2 at Kansas City Chiefs (one unit)

Buffalo heads to Kansas City to exorcise the demons and break through for their first Super Bowl since 1993. I’m not making the mistake I made last week and betting against them to do so.

Kansas City is looking for a three-peat… which means they have played more games in the NFL in the past three seasons than any other team. At some point, fatigue has to catch up with them.

The fact last week’s Buffalo victory was more of a team effort than the Josh Allen show leads me to believe they are gelling at the perfect time. Kansas City has struggled (but notably prevailed) throughout the season. I’m thinking this is Buffalo’s Little Giants moment (only takes one time).

I’m sure Scumbag 1.0 is thinking “what an idiot!” as he reads this, but he did adopt KC as his “new” team (abandoning the Patriots in their darkest hour) [Editor’s note: Disgusting.] so there’s some bias at the heart of it. Give me the Bills finally toppling the Chiefs for a unit.

Scumbag Play No. 2: Washington Commanders +6.5 at Philadelphia Eagles (one unit)

I’ve stuck with underdog Washington since (Super) Wild Card Weekend kicked off. This week changes nothing.

Philadelphia took care of business against Los Angeles last week exactly as expected; through Saquon and the run game. In terms of wagering however, they pushed. A victory for no one.

The passing game clearly isn’t up to par with the run game. Their seemingly unflappable defense showed flaws in the armor as last week’s matchup wore on.

Washington is playing some of its best football of the season. Jayden Daniels clearly isn’t impacted by the attention and bright lights of the playoffs. But the run defense did have trouble with the Detroit Lions last week, so we need to consider that. I think this will be a close game regardless, which gives me confidence the Commanders will cover once again this week.

Last week: 2-1-1, +2 units
Regular season: 35-26-1 (.574), +9 units
Playoffs: 4-2-1 (.667), +2 units

My non-Scumbag picks: Eagles -6 over the Commanders, Bills +2 at the Chiefs (one unit each)

Last week I was on the Ravens when I decided to flip to the home team in order to add some variance to our picks. Rather than boil these picks down to a single word (“same”), let’s look at how Philadelphia can ruin the Commanders’ good time.

Well, really, it’s just this one *big* thing:

Washington’s defense hasn’t caught up to its offense. It’s added some great pieces (Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner, hello), but still needs time to build back up after 2023’s sell-off. Four different opponents ran for at least 200 total yards against the Commanders this season. Eight got to 150.

Granted, that hasn’t necessarily been fatal. Philly hit 200-plus twice but split the season series with Washington. But Saquon Barkley is truly feeling it right now.

He ran for two touchdowns the last time these teams met, which was a Commanders win but one with Kenny Pickett handling all but four of the Eagles’ pass attempts. Even a hurt Jalen Hurts, the same guy who took an avoidable safety last week, is a significant upgrade over Pickett’s two to three good passes per game.

On top of that, you can spot the Philadelphia defense up in the top right corner of that graph. This is a defense that can double team Terry McLaurin without getting torched by Dyami Brown or Olamide Zaccheaus. That should be enough to result in a win by seven points or more — though I do hate betting against the Commanders Cinderella story.

Otherwise, I’m rolling with my heart over recent results and backing Josh Allen to win a playoff game against the Chiefs.

Last week: 2-0, +2 units
Regular season: 33-27 (.550), +9 units
Playoffs: 4-3 (.571), +1 unit