Super Bowl 2025 betting estimates dropped by $21B for 1 simple reason

Americans are expected to wager $1.39 billion on the Super Bowl this year, according to the American Gaming Association (AGA), which would be a record for money bet on the big game, though it may not initially sound like one.

For those who recall past AGA Super Bowl projections, the numbers have always been much bigger than the projection for 2025. Last year, the projection was $23.1 billion. In 2023, it was $16 billion.

However, there’s a very simple explanation for why the number is down by $20 billion year-over-year and still stands to set a record. The AGA changed its formula.

Past projections included all forms of betting, including unregulated and illegal wagering, as well as causal betting between friends, like Super Bowl squares. In 2025, the AGA is only projecting legal sports betting. So, the $1.39 billion projection would be a record amount of money bet on the Super Bowl legally.

“With years of legal operations in several U.S. states, the AGA now analyzes historical revenue data and other trends to develop a legal wager estimate for major U.S. sports betting moments,” the AGA said in its release.

“No single event unites sports fans like the Super Bowl, and that excitement extends to sports betting, with this year’s record legal handle reflecting its widespread appeal,” AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said. “This figure underscores the positive impact of the legal market—from protecting consumers to generating tax revenue that benefits communities across the country—while enhancing the game experience for all.”