2025 WM Phoenix Open: Best bets, hole-in-one props and one-and-done pick

Golf’s biggest party returns to TPC Scottsdale this week as the one-of-a-kind WM Phoenix Open tees off in the desert.

For those who’ve never watched (or bet) this tournament before, imagine how Happy Gilmore might set up an event. There would be fans wearing wacky outfits, zero decorum and copious beer showers to celebrate a hole-in-one. That’s exactly what we’ll see this week.

The WM Phoenix Open is the People’s Masters, where you’re just as likely to see someone streaking across the fairway as you are exceptional golf. And make no mistake, the atmosphere may seem like a circus, but this tournament is no joke.

Not with a $9.2 million purse up for grabs.

Let’s dive in and find some winners.

All odds via BetMGM

WM Phoenix Open Champion

Scottie Scheffler (+275) 3 Units

Listen, I promise not to just blindly pick Scottie Scheffler to win every week, even though that sounds like a pretty profitable strategy. But things couldn’t be lining up better for the world No. 1 this week. Scheffler required just four holes to shake off the rust from his hand surgery at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week. After an opening bogey, Scottie was one-under par at the turn and finished his first pro round of season at five under. He wound up T9 for the weekend. Now Scheffler heads to a tournament he won in 2022 and 2023 with a T3 last year. Does this price (barely 2-1) stink? Yeah absolutely. Do we have a choice but to take it? Nope. We’re all suckers here.

Sahith Theegala (+4000) 1.5 Unit

To say Theegala loves this tournament is a massive understatement. As a sponsor exemption in 2022, Theegala was the first-round leader and finished T3 overall his first time out. Last year, he finished fifth. According to DataGolf, Theegala (+2.41) trails only Scheffler (+3.15) in average adjusted strokes-gained at TPC Scottsdale. Once again, we have no choice but to tail.

Who’s a lock to finish Top 10?

Justin Thomas (+125) 2 Units

If he is indeed back back, this is the perfect week for Justin Thomas to prove it. If not, JT should still find himself near the top of the leaderboard. Thomas has finished T25 or better each year at the WM Phoenix Open since 2018, including four top 10s. We already mentioned Scheffler and Theegala are Nos. 1 and 2 in DataGolf’s true strokes gained metric at TPC Scottsdale. Well, Thomas comes in at No. 5. He’s also considered one of the best course fits in the field. Once again, these odds are far from exciting, but there’s a good reason.

Corey Conners (+400) 1 Unit

After taking so many favorites, it almost feels nice to take a swing on a relative longshot again. Conners isn’t hiding in this field by any means — he’s ranked 47th in the world — but at 40-1 he provides the type of value we’re searching for here. Conners ranks fifth in strokes gained on approach from the fairway, which is considered a key metric this week. Considering he’s played the WM Phoenix Open five times and hasn’t missed a cut, we’ll take the gamble.

Will there be a hole-in-one on No. 16?

There have been 11 aces at the famed No. 16 par 3 stadium since 1987. The last two occurred in 2022. Does that mean we’re due this year? It’s worth paying to find out. Especially at 3-1. If you want to give yourself a little more latitude here, you can grab anytime hole-in-one for the whole tournament at nearly even money.

One-And-Done: Davis Thompson

I very nearly went with Sahith Theegala here for every reason listed above. But he’s sure to be a popular pick and the $9.2 million purse in this field just isn’t big enough to balance that out. Not when Theegala will likely contend at some signature events later this season. Instead, we’re going with Thompson. The 25-year-old has started a bit slow this year — he hasn’t finished better than T36 since the season-opening Sentry —but he’s a perfect course fit, having turned in a T15 last year and ranking top 26 in four-of-five key metrics this week.

It’s a big swing after finally moving up the board with Jason Day last week, but one that (hopefully) won’t break you if he misses the cut.

Who is missing the cut?

Rickie Fowler (+170) 2 Units

Fowler’s 2023 bounce-back was fun. It just didn’t last. The 2019 WM Phoenix Open champ has missed the cut in three of his last four starts here. We’ll bank on that trend continuing this year.

Akshay Bhatia (+170) 2 Units

He missed the cut last year and has struggled at similar courses. Stay away.

Quick Matchups

Kurt Kitayama over Sam Stevens

Tom Kim over Sepp Straka