Super Bowl 2025 straight-up picks: Where we lean, slightly, toward a Chiefs three-peat

284 games have been played in the 2024-2025 NFL season. No. 285 will determine football’s next world champion.

The 2025 Super Bowl will be a rematch of 2023’s with the Philadelphia Eagles once more arriving at the big game as a slight underdog to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes’s Super Bowl 57 win put his team on a path toward history; a victory in Super Bowl 59 would make the Chiefs the only team in the NFL to ever win three straight Super Bowls.

Our panel thinks he’ll get there — but it’s far from unanimous. So how did we get here?

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person attaché ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph and Meghan Hall). Here are our Super Bowl picks:

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Well, let’s talk about it.

Upset pick of the week: Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) over the Kansas City Chiefs

Why I like this pick:

Outside of the quarterback, coaching and kicking matchups, the Eagles seem to have the advantage in every phase of the game. Saquon Barkley has run through better defenses than the Chiefs, as well rested as they may be. As Kansas City creeps toward the line of scrimmage, it will leave one-on-one opportunities for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith — the only two players in the league to rank in the top 10 in both expected points added (EPA) per target and catch rate over expected (CROE).

That’s a real pick-your-poison situation before getting to a top five offensive line that can keep Jalen Hurts from his danger zone of throwing while pressured. On the other side of the ball, well:

Since the halfway point of 2024, the Philadelphia defense has been best in the NFL by a significant margin. There’s some liability in a secondary with two different rookies playing significant roles, but both Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have improved throughout the season and clearly have head coach Nick Sirianni’s trust. Each played a team-high 75 snaps in the NFC title game.

Do the Chiefs have the horses to wear that group thin? I’m not certain. Xavier Worthy is an X factor, Travis Kelce will have some devastating moments and someone like Noah Gray or Justin Watson will rise up for a big play no one expected. But they’ll need to do this consistently to win the 2025 Super Bowl. I don’t see it.

Why I don’t like this pick:

That thing about with the quarterback, coaching and kicking? Those are the exact traits that can swing a game with a last-minute drive. We know the Chiefs are capable of this because that’s how they won their last two Super Bowls. There’s an inevitable sense of dread around Philadelphia that:

a) Nick Sirianni will have at least one head-scratching decision,

b) Patrick Mahomes will have at least one baffling escape in which he turns disaster into glory, and

c) Harrison Butker will have at least one big moment field goal that barely deviates from the imaginary line he draws in the center of the uprights.

All this points to another late, dramatic Kansas City win and roughly three million cameras converging on Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift for a confetti-drenched smooch.

But hey, if you want to know what the worst case scenario for each team is:

• How the 2025 Super Bowl could go terribly wrong for Saquon Barkley and the Eagles
• How the 2025 Super Bowl could go terribly wrong for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs