Writers Weigh In: What are Montreal’s Playoff Odds This Season?
The regular season is just underway and there is plenty of enthusiasm about Montreal’s playoff chances. Our writers give their odds on the Habs reaching the postseason in 2025-26.
Editor’s Note: While we’re running this a couple of games into the season, writers submitted their answers at the end of the preseason.
Terry Costaris: I’m going to give the Montreal Canadiens a 67% chance of making it to the playoffs this 2025-26 season. If they were any other team with the same lineup, I would go up to 77%. But the Habs have a propensity to suffer major injuries – far higher than most clubs so this significant variable has to be taken into consideration.
Despite this likely scenario, the Canadiens are deeper in talent and more experienced and should thus be able to absorb the injury factor. After all, virtually every player on this very young club is one year better than he was last season. The Habs have boosted their talent level through key summer acquisitions, and of course, there is the addition of the highly electric Ivan Demidov.
They should be better up front in terms of firepower, bottom six in depth, and have improved both on defence and in net. And I’m still holding out hope that the management tandem of Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton will eventually pull out a rabbit from their collective hats and snag us a quality second-line centre as the final piece in their rebuild.
Yes, Montreal’s competition has also improved but, assuming that their injuries are somewhat on par with the rest of the clubs in the Eastern Conference, I would still be very surprised if they fail to make it to the playoffs. Stranger things, though, have happened.
Who, for example, would have predicted Nashville’s implosion last season? On paper, their roster looked pretty impressive.
So, my prediction here is what former Habs GM Marc Bergevin would likely deem as being “PlayStation worthy.”
Brian Davis: Why the Habs Have a 66% Chance of Making the Playoffs This Season
After 25 years of following the Montreal Canadiens, I can confidently say this is the deepest and most competitive roster I’ve seen — not just in Montreal, but across Laval as well. The preseason may not have offered a clear read on the veterans but it was a showcase for bubble players and those with something to prove. With a wave of expiring contracts and a hungry crop of young talent ready to step in, the internal competition is fierce. That’s why I’m putting the Habs’ playoff odds at 66% — two out of three scenarios see them making it.
The first and most optimistic scenario sees Montreal finishing in the top three of the Atlantic Division. In this case, the core group — Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Noah Dobson, and Lane Hutson — delivers consistent performances, while rookies and contract-year players provide reliable secondary scoring. With three productive lines and two strong power play units, the team thrives on depth and internal pressure. Laval call-ups keep veterans on edge, ensuring no one coasts. It’s a sustainable, balanced formula that could see the Habs lock in a playoff spot early.
The second scenario is a repeat of last year’s grind, but with a more stable outcome: a safe Wild Card berth. The top line continues to carry the offensive load, while the other lines remain streaky. Special teams shine — the power play clicks and the penalty kill holds firm. A key turning point comes when Dach is traded by Christmas, freeing up minutes for the Demidov-Kapanen-Newhook trio and allowing Owen Beck to graduate to the big club full-time. The second half of the season sees the team gel, and they secure a Wild Card spot with confidence.
The third scenario is the heartbreaker: narrowly missing the playoffs. The team competes all season but struggles to fill the hole at second-line centre. Despite patience and internal options, only a late-season trade stabilizes the line. Laine remains a power play threat but continues to be a liability at even strength. Laval call-ups inject energy and begin to outperform veterans, sparking a late push — but it’s not quite enough to get over the line.
Regardless of which path unfolds, this season promises excitement. The Canadiens are no longer a team hoping for luck — they’re building something real. With depth, solid development, and competitive culture, they’re finally positioned to be a constant threat. Whether it’s a top-three finish or a Wild Card grind, the Habs are back in the conversation.
Tom Haapanen: The Habs’ rebuild is evolving, and the team looks ready to take yet another step. The core players (apart from Samuel Montembeault) are all between 19 and 26, and all are still developing toward their prime years. In the offseason, Hughes made some significant moves, and the team is undoubtedly better for those: Ivan Demidov is clearly better than Joel Armia, Zachary Bolduc should be a significant improvement over Emil Heineman, and Oliver Kapanen should surely at least match Christian Dvorak’s performance. And when they have an injury at forward, Joe Veleno should be a much more capable fill-in than last year’s Michael Pezzetta. On defence, Dobson is a big upgrade on David Savard, even as it will take him some time to adapt to the Habs’ style of play. And, in addition to the roster changes, the team starts the season with Kirby Dach and Patrik Laine in full health, which can only help.
Last year, the season started with a disastrous slump, with only eight wins in the first 24 games, and the Habs were mired at the bottom of the Eastern Conference as December started on pace for only 61 points. Now, most of the team understands and has bought into how Martin St-Louis wants them to play, with only a few newcomers like Dobson and Bolduc needing more reps to fit in. Avoiding that slump alone would have added 5-10 points to the Habs’ season total last year.
With the organic growth in the young players’ skills, the key roster moves (Demidov, Dobson, and Bolduc), and the team’s ability to play together the way St-Louis expects them to, a reasonable expectation would be for them to get close to 100 points this season. And that’s not counting on any incremental contributions from the likes of Dach, Laine, or Jakub Dobes—or growth from defenders like Hutson, Kaiden Guhle, or Arber Xhekaj. Of course, anything can happen in a season, including major injuries, but the playoff position should be theirs to claim.
Playoffs probability: 80%
Allan Katz: The Habs have a 95% chance of being better than last year and an 85% of making the playoffs. Last year, the team accrued 91 points and made the playoffs with a mercurial team that brought new meaning to the phrase Hot and Cold.
In net, the team has Dobes for a full season versus the half-season disaster that was named Cayden Primeau. Solid improvement.
On defence, the team exchanged their sixth defenceman, Savard, with a number one in Dobson. They will also have Alexandre Carrier for a full season versus a half season of Justin Barron. Carrier, despite being a key component of the team’s resurgence, will this year be asked to be a bottom-pair defender versus last year being a top-four option, more proof of the D being significantly stronger. Among the others, youth will be served well since everyone is one more year experienced and showing it too. And finally, Mike Matheson will play slightly fewer minutes which should help him max out on his talent. This is a significant improvement!
On offence, Armia and Dvorak have been exchanged for Bolduc and Demidov. This is an extraordinary upgrade. Pezzetta is exchanged for Veleno which won’t hurt the team with Veleno having a significantly higher skill set.
This brings us to the Wild Cards and they consist of a range of doozies. This is just a gut feeling, but it seems Alex Newhook is going to find his place on this team and contribute in a solid fashion that will include penalty killing, left-side faceoffs, and jack of all trades flexibility. Not quite significant, but nonetheless important. Then comes full-season Slafkovsky versus half-season Slafkovsky. I would not bet on how this will work out but would at least like to see 3/4-season Slafkovsky emerge as he begins to realize more of his potential. Then we arrive at the Dach story. Montreal invested a lot in this young man. We can only wonder what his season will look like. I personally have no idea, but his emergence as a competent two-way centre would help the team a ton. The last wild card is a player the team did not invest a lot in. Watching Laine score on the power play is a wonder as he has lightning in his stick. Sadly, every other element of his game is a question mark.
Finally, the depth factor in the minors is solid with a plethora of injury replacements in every position.
The emergence of a few wild cards would make this team more than playoff contenders. Yet considering the team had no second centre last year and they made the playoffs and that they are now significantly improved has this team barreling towards 99 points and a minimum .600 season.
Nathan Kerson: The Canadiens have shown steady progression in recent years, climbing from rebuild lows toward contention. Points have risen annually (+8, +15), reflecting the fact that youth maturation, or “internal improvements” has been significant and impactful. Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, and Dobson make the backbone of this team, which, at the current moment, remains extremely affordable and versatile with options to add. Numerically, the Atlantic Division is the equivalent of a hydra, since any time you defeat one of the division’s teams, two more gain ground via the points lost. In a league of extreme parity, there is no question that the teams of the Atlantic Division all expect to push for playoff spots this season. Fans can expect a very dramatic Spring run.
The Habs find themselves navigating a fiercely competitive division, where established juggernauts like the Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Tampa Bay Lightning loom large as formidable barriers to contention. The Panthers, with their championship-tested depth and relentless balance, represent the kind of well-rounded powerhouse that exposes any gaps in Montreal’s evolving roster, while Toronto’s star-laden attack and Tampa’s veteran savvy—fueled by elite playmakers—consistently outpace the Habs in head-to-head battles, underscoring the need for Montreal’s young core to mature rapidly if they hope to challenge for supremacy. For the Canadiens, these top-tier rivals aren’t just obstacles; they’re the measuring stick for a rebuild that’s finally yielding glimpses of playoff potential, demanding precision from their blue line to counter the offensive firepower arrayed against them.
Yet amid this top-heavy fray, the Habs carve out a compelling middle-ground identity, poised as a gritty wild-card contender whose defensive structure gives them a subtle advantage over teams like the Detroit Red Wings, whose inconsistent back end leaves them vulnerable in direct matchups. Trailing just behind the surging Ottawa Senators—whose youthful energy around dynamic forwards mirrors Montreal’s own but with a touch more offensive polish—the Canadiens’ path hinges on their emerging talents transforming promise into production, turning close calls against these peers into defining statements of resilience. This bubble existence suits Montreal’s narrative of measured ascent, where every shift from their captain and sniper duo could tip the scales in a division where parity reigns among the aspirants. Languishing at the division’s base, the Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins offer Montreal rare opportunities for dominance, their roster upheavals and lingering rebuild woes amplifying the Habs’ strengths in structured play and puck possession to secure crucial early wins. Buffalo’s depth erosion and Boston’s post-fire-sale disarray pale against the Canadiens’ cohesive unit, providing breathing room in the standings and boosting confidence for tougher tilts.
For the Habs, this yields a bubble-team profile: incremental improvement from their 91-point 2024-25 season, but still a coin-flip (50%) for playoffs in a brutal Atlantic Division.
Brian La Rose: Last year, a lot was made about how the Habs were one of the youngest teams in the NHL and the youngest team in the modern era to make the playoffs. That inexperience made them even more of a question mark. This team is even younger than that; they’re the youngest team in the league this season. There is more volatility with young rosters and, well, that means this team has the potential to be volatile, or just as streaky as they were a year ago.
I look at the division and see Tampa Bay and Toronto as the likely top two teams. I think Ottawa is still a bit ahead of the Canadiens in their overall development. I think Florida could be gettable but I’m not going to write them off entirely. So, at best, we’re probably looking at a battle for a Wild Card spot again. Then, it’s a matter of whether a non-playoff team from the Metropolitan Division (the Rangers, maybe Columbus who had a strong second half) can get their way into the mix.
I can see a scenario where Montreal gets a couple more points in the standings and shows some improvement but still misses the playoffs. I can also see a scenario where they just get in but it would be surprising to see them comfortably in. Before Aleksander Barkov’s injury, I’d have had these odds at around 40%. With his injury, I’ll push it to 45% but I can’t write the Panthers off despite their injuries and back-to-back years of no Metropolitan Wild Card teams would be a surprise.
Kevin Leveille: Progression isn’t linear. This is important when considering how many things went right for the Canadiens to make the playoffs last season.
A large number of Canadiens players took the expected step forward in development. This includes but certainly isn’t limited to Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, and Montembeault. While it is fair to expect similar production from those players, it is impossible to guarantee the newer crop of players such as Slafkovsky, Demidov, Kapanen, and, to a lesser extent, Dobes, will all succeed in having similar impacts on the roster this season.
The Habs were a team that stayed generally healthy last season. Yes, the year started without Laine and ended without Dach, but those weren’t the players that pushed that needle for the Habs to get into the postseason. Many will point to Laine’s arrival, but I’d argue his impact was greater on the psyche of the young leadership group than his on-ice production, but I’ll agree that it’s debatable. Who else missed significant time?
Some veterans had incredible bounce-back seasons in newer roles. Savard, Matheson, Dvorak, Brendan Gallagher, and Josh Anderson were all key pieces to the team getting in. Can Evans, Dobson, Guhle, and Alex Newhook do the same this season?
Now, Hughes and Gorton have done tremendous work in asset management over the last twelve months with the additions of Bolduc, Dobson, and Carrier to offset those three elements being incredibly difficult to repeat. In simpler terms, I think management has raised the floor of this team. There’s no way they are going back to the bottom of the standings even if all three of the elements above don’t work. If all those things go right again with the amount of talent now on the team, I think they are not in the Wild Card discussion. What’s most likely to happen is that some elements will work again and some won’t this time, which leaves the Habs much in the same spot as last year, in the mix until the very end. For these reasons, I’m putting their odds of making the playoffs at 50% and I’ll immediately open the umbrella to shield myself from the tomatoes that are likely headed my way.
Peter Longo: I give the team a 50/50 chance at squeezing into the playoffs again. Last year, they were fortunate with a healthy roster, some career years by key players and struggling opposition teams which allowed the Habs to sneak into the last playoff spot on the last day of the regular season. So, there is definitely optimism that they can repeat, but management has not done enough to make it a certainty.
The addition of Dobson effectively bumps Carrier down to the third pairing (assuming Matheson, Dobson, Guhle, and Hutson are the top four), which certainly improves the team depth to overcome injuries and likely means fewer goals against, but I’m not sure it’ll make a difference to the ninth-worst goals against team. Demidov, Bolduc, and Laine are very exciting options and should improve secondary scoring, but remain big question marks. If the team has some bad luck with injuries (i.e. Suzuki and/or Montembeault), it could easily be a top-five draft pick for the team next spring. Ultimately, in my opinion, the biggest hurdle is the gaping chasm in the 2C slot. Until management addresses that need, the team is at best middle of the pack and at best a 50/50 chance to make the playoffs.
Richard Roy: With the Panthers crippled with long-term injuries, the Lightning not getting any younger, and the Leafs without Mitch Marner, the top three teams in the Atlantic will probably have a few points available for others to take. Neither the Sabres, Bruins, nor Red Wings have added significantly to their roster this summer to expect any surprises. This leaves the Habs and the Senators to pick up these available points during the season.
In the Metro, we can expect a dogfight between the Capitals, Hurricanes, Devils, Blue Jackets, and Rangers (which I think will rebound this year now that the off-ice drama seems over). The Capitals may suffer post-Ovechkin record hangover this year and finish well below the 111 points from last year. These points could percolate down the standings and increase the lower limit for a Wild Card spot in the East.
Last year, the Habs were the last team to enter the playoffs. If we set last year’s performance at a 50% chance of making the playoffs, it is fair to assume that this year would be somewhat higher. On the other hand, I doubt that 91 points will be enough this year.
In light of the above, I set the odds at 55%.
James Turner: 75%. I am optimistic the Habs return to the postseason. The team hasn’t lost any significant talent from last year’s squad. Demidov is a front-runner for the Calder, and I don’t expect any drop-off from Hutson or any other young players. As for the rest of the Eastern Conference, I could make a case for a handful of teams to likely regress. Toronto lost a 102-point winger, and Florida will be without two of their top forwards for much of the year. Aside from Carolina and perhaps Tampa, I have little confidence in any other East teams. Barring injuries, Montreal is primed to snag a postseason slot.
Dave Woodward: For any teams other than the elite squads in the league, playoff predictions in October are utter speculation. The Canadiens’ roster has improved from last season with the addition of Dobson, Demidov, and others. Another year of experience for a young team should also improve the team’s playoff prospects organically. However, the Habs are not yet an elite team and a lot can go wrong in any season whether it be off years by key players, team chemistry, injuries, poor goaltending, etc.
Last year, after sitting in last place in late November, for the Canadiens to make the playoffs, everything had to fall into place, including some surprisingly weak seasons from teams with considerable talent (such as the Rangers). Fortunately, it happened, but Lady Luck may not be so generous this year. With an improved team, the Habs have a greater margin of error but they are still a few years away from being a lock for the playoffs.
The rebuild is being nicely implemented but progress is not always linear. This scribbler would not be shocked if the Canadiens missed the postseason this year but with the roster changes, that is unlikely. Look for the Habs to have a 70% chance to make the playoffs with a 50% possibility of advancing beyond Round 1. And if the Canadiens do miss the playoffs, stay the course on the rebuild. One year of bad breaks that results in an early golf season does not mean a team is on the wrong path. Just ask the 1970 Montreal Canadiens or the 2017 Tampa Bay Lightning.
Norm Szcyrek: 80%. I am very confident in Montreal’s position to make the post season again in 2026. Their opposition in Florida, Toronto, Tampa and Florida will all be worse than last season due to factors like injuries and other roster changes. Ottawa may improve in their division but rivals like Boston and Buffalo will likely be even worse. Montreal’s top line stepped up to help guide the Habs, and players like Kirby Dach and Patrik Laine are playing for their next contracts, and should be much improved. With wunderkind Lane Hutson driving an even better power play with rookie Ivan Demidov, this team should be lethal with the man advantage. if injuries are kept to a minimum for the Canadiens then they will make it the post-season for the second straight season.