Habs Stats: The First 15 Games
Seems like the Habs kept cooking again for the third tranche of five games. At the end of that stretch, they were on top of the East with 22 points and churning out points at a constant +0.7 points percent rate. They were third in the league in goals for and, to top it off, both their power play and penalty kill totalled 107%, eighth-best in the league. It is becoming more and more difficult to find flaws at this point. Sure, one can point to goals against and save percentage (aka Samuel Montembeault needs to improve) but the last two games of the segment seem to offer hope that this could also improve.
Stats are as of November 10th.
Individually, Caufield is on top of the league in goals scored (12), Nick Suzuki is tied for tenth with 20 points, and the two rookie forwards (Ivan Demidov and Oliver Kapanen) are dominating the rookie class in points, goals, and assists.
Advanced stats presented by NHL Edge show that the Habs have not performed as well as in the previous 10 games though. They are now in the bottom half of the league in many categories they used to dominate in, including zone time and high-danger chances.
That said, they exited this segment third in the league in goals scored thanks to a league-leading 15.3 shooting percentage. Although this could mean that they have had a lot of “lucky” goals, it could suggest that the above-average talent is just better at putting the puck in the net. Considering that the two teams below the Habs in shooting percentage are the Ducks and the Sharks, and the Blackhawks are fifth, I would suggest that these young teams are playing a different style of hockey where shooting from anywhere and risking losing puck possession is substituted with waiting for a better opportunity to score.
What has been the most impressive so far is the team’s consistency. They obtained points in all but three of the first 15 games and had the lead at some point in all of them, including in their three losses in regulation. For all of us anxious fans who have seen very low lows in previous seasons after glimpses of decent play, the question we are all secretly asking ourselves is: Can they maintain this?
It would be unrealistic to expect them to maintain a 0.700 point percentage, right? That would mean a season of 115 points. But is it really unrealistic? If we go back to February 20th of last season when Canada beat the USA at the Four Nations Tournament, the Habs have played 41 regular season games since. That is a half-season, and a very good sample size. Since then, the Habs are first in the league with 58 points and posting a 0.707 point percentage. Compared to last year, the team is far ahead of schedule. The Habs reached 22 points last season on December 5th in game number 26.
With this number of points in the bank after 15 games, even if they maintain a much lower point percentage of 0.600 the rest of the way, they would still end up with a total of 102 points, more than enough to make the playoffs.
What is also helping the Habs in the Atlantic Division is that apart from Tampa Bay and Boston who have turned around their season of late with a 7-3 record in their last 10, everyone else is struggling to keep pace with the Habs. Considering that both the Lightning and Habs have two games in hand over the Bruins, Boston’s early-season woes are hurting them. Boston has also had three more games played at home and their record away from home is below .500. It remains doubtful at this stage that the Bruins will remain within the top three in the division in the coming weeks.