Habs Stats: The First 20 games
The Habs train has apparently gone off the rails during the last five games! Injuries, atrocious goaltending, defensive play breakdowns, poor power play and penalty kill, and only a single point out of ten during the period. Needless to say, other teams have caught up to the Habs, who are now completely out of the playoffs, sixth in the Atlantic Division and 13th in the Eastern Conference.
That said, if one woke up this morning after a two-month nap and looked at the team’s situation, it wouldn’t be so bad! One win away from first place, well above .500 hockey, an average power play and penalty kill with shots for and against virtually equal. Both PDO for and against are close to 100% so no indication of “luck” involved. That would be completely accurate, but so would be the case if one evaluated their physical health as above-average, midway falling off a cliff wall.
Advanced stats presented by NHL Edge provide good insight into what is going on. Or should I say, what is not going on. Data actually suggests that the Habs have improved in the last five games in offensive zone time (ranked 22nd after 15 games, now 12th), have a slight improvement in shots on goal map from 30th after 15 games to 28th, and are still top of the NHL in shooting percentage with 13.2%.
The NHL remains a league of results, not development, or process, or solely advanced stats, for that matter. In that regard, the team has lost all of its cushion over the other teams and, although they remain well above last year at the same date, that only means that the first 20 games of the season were not a disaster like last year.
So, what is going on? Well, for starters, the PDO of the last five games shows that part of the reason why the Habs aren’t scoring as much is bad luck and/or good goaltending of the opposing team. Opposing goalies have played at an average of a 0.929 save percentage vs the Habs in the last five games. This is not sustainable. I would easily bet that without changing anything, this should come back to a level of about 12-15 goals per five games. Three of the five games were blowout losses by four or more goals. Those were the only three times this happened all year. In context, when a team loses by more than three goals, the urgency and competitiveness decrease considerably and that affects the offensive threat. All that is accomplished is boosting the opposing goalies’ stats with run-of-the-mill shots on goal.
The biggest factor here, of course, doesn’t need advanced stats to conclude. Goaltending is just simply atrocious. The goalie army has been quite loud in the media, pointing at defensive breakdowns and risky plays in the offensive zone, leading to three-on-ones or breakaways the other way to deflect part of the blame from goaltenders. That is true. But those risky plays are the result of being behind in the third period consistently. In game 20 vs Washington, Alex Ovechkin’s goal on the power play was on the first shot of the game. That was the fourth time this season that the opposing team scored on their first shot on goal, matching their total from all of last season.
The Habs have been playing very well and within their structure in the first period. Leading 14-4 in shots vs Dallas (7-0 loss), and 12-6 vs Washington (8-4 loss). With decent goaltending, this should result in a one-to-two-goal lead after the first. A very different game. Of course, a push is expected from the opponent early in the second but with good goaltending to hold the fort, this should lead to odd-number rushes the other way. The difference between good and bad goaltending goes way beyond the team’s defence. It affects the confidence of the offence to keep up the pressure and to force the opposing team to play catch-up hockey.
The added issue with goaltending is that, including the farm team in Laval, there are only four – one of which, Fowler, would be much better served by one or two full seasons in Laval before starting in the NHL. Would a call-up of Kaapo Kahkonen and Jakub Dobes sent down for a few weeks be a good decision? Maybe. But expecting Kahkonen to come up and save the team is unrealistic. He has been decent in Laval with a 0.919 save percentage and both he and Fowler are playing with confidence right now. This alone may be the key to give the team a greater sense of confidence and return to better play.