Why Fears The Hamas-Israel Conflict Could Spread Further Across The Middle East Just Soared
Worries that the Hamas-Israel conflict could spread further across the Middle East have been heightened in the last 24 hours.
A Hamas leader and a senior Hezbollah commander were reportedly both killed, in attacks they have blamed on Israel.
Here’s a look at what happened, and the concerns around what could happen next.
What happened overnight?
Hamas – a Palestinian militant group which controls Gaza – claims its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed via an air strike while staying in Iranian capital of Tehran overnight.
Usually based between Qatar and Turkey, Haniyeh was in Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian.
Haniyeh is one of the few well-known figures of Hamas. He briefly served as the Palestinian prime minister in 2006, and was elected as the head of Hamas’s political bureau in 2017.
The US designated him a terrorist in 2018.
Who is Hamas blaming for Haniyeh’s death?
Hamas said Haniyeh was “killed in a treacherous Zionist raid” last night.
In a statement, the organisation claimed: “The Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas mourns to our great Palestinian people, to the Arab and Islamic nation, and to all the free people of the world.”
Iran, which backs Hamas, has said it is investigating Haniyeh’s death.
How has Israel responded?
Israel has not officially responded to Hamas’ accusations that it was behind Haniyeh’s death.
The Israel Defence Force (IDF) has also told outlets it will not be responding to foreign news reports of Haniyeh’s death.
However, Israel has been calling for the elimination of Hamas’s leaders since the October 7 attacks, when the militants killed 1,200 people in Israel and took hundreds hostage.
The right-wing Israeli minister Amichay Eliyahu posted on X that Haniyeh’s death “makes the world a better place”.
What has happened with Hezbollah?
Hezbollah is a militant group in Lebanon with strong ties to Iran, and which supports Hamas.
Hours before Haniyeh’s reported death, Israel took credit for killing a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in the Lebanese capital of Beirut.
Hezhbollah has not confirmed Shukr’s death.
Israel said it was in retaliation for a rocket attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights at the weekend – where at least 12 people were killed.
Hezbollah has denied any involvement in that attack.
Why are these two events so important?
These two incidents, which occurred within 24 hours of each other, add to growing fears that a wider regional conflict is around the corner.
Hezbollah is not directly involved in the Israel-Gaza war right now.
But, there has been outbreaks of violence between Hezbollah and Israel at the Lebanon-Israel border.
Hezbollah has previously promised to stop firing at Israel if a ceasefire is agreed.
But now Israel claims to have hit one of Hezbollah’s top commanders, it means tensions between Israel and Hezbollah may finally come to a head.
Similarly, Iran and Israel have been caught in something of a shadow war for years.
Now a Hamas leader has been killed on Iranian soil, this could escalate.
A professor of Middle Eastern Studies at Georgetown University, Nader Hashemi, told the BBC: “This is a major development.
“I think it also impacts events in Lebanon because just a few hours earlier Israel tried to assassinate a senior Hezbollah leader in souther Beirut and the working assumption was that Iran and Hezbollah were not interested in escalation.”
He said now “Iran has every incentive to try and escalate the conflict.”
However, the US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said he does not believe a wider conflict is inevitable, saying: “I think there’s always room and opportunity for diplomacy.”
What does this mean for the Gaza conflict?
Hamas and Israel had been working on ceasefire and hostage release talks, with Haniyeh as one of the lead figures.
His death means this will likely grind to a halt, especially as Hamas will be focused on trying to find Haniyeh’s replacement.
Hamas temporarily suspended the talks in December after Haniyeh’s deputy was killed in Beirut.
Hamas has also vowed to avenge Haniyeh’s death, calling it a “cowardly act that will not go unpunished”.
But, there is an argument that Haniyeh’s death could give Israel a chance to withdraw from Gaza, having taken down Hamas’ leader.
The UK’s former national security adviser Lord Peter Ricketts said Haniyeh’s assassination is a “very powerful demonstration of Israel’s ability to reach across the region”.
It therefore gives the country “political room to begin to wind down the operation in Gaza” because Israel can say it struck at Hamas’s heart.