NOAA predicts above average 2025 hurricane season: How many storms US could see

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) – NOAA is predicting another very active hurricane season.

“Everything’s in place for an above-average season,” Ken Graham, director of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS), told reporters in Louisiana.

This season has a 60% chance of being above average, according to NOAA's 2025 forecast.

In an average season, there are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major storms (Category 3 and higher). NOAA is forecasting between 13 and 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes this year.

NOAA joins Colorado State University researchers in predicting an active season.

Using models based on decades of climate trends, CSU researchers predicted the Atlantic basin will see 17 named storms, nine of those being hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes are predicted to be Category 3, 4, or 5, otherwise known as major hurricanes.

“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” Graham said in a statement. “This outlook is a call to action: Be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens."

Especially warm ocean temperatures are expected to fuel these storms. NOAA's decision was influenced by ENSO-neutral conditions, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. 

Below: Storm names for 2025

The most dangerous hurricanes, Graham warned, tended to develop fastest. “Every category 5 storm to ever hit this country was a tropical storm or less three days prior. If you don’t get goosebumps, I’ll repeat it,” he said.

The Hill's Saul Elbein contributed to this report.