Pakistan’s Security Challenges Strain Relations with Beijing

As the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) enters its second phase, Pakistan faces increasing pressure from Beijing over its inability to ensure the safety of Chinese nationals working on the project. Despite significant investments in security, a series of recent attacks on Chinese workers has strained the relationship between the two nations, leaving Chinese investors increasingly wary.

The CPEC, a cornerstone of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, represents a $62 billion investment in Pakistan’s infrastructure and energy sectors. However, this ambitious project has been marred by recurring security incidents targeting Chinese personnel. In March 2024 alone, five separate attacks resulted in the deaths of at least 18 people, including five Chinese nationals. These incidents have highlighted Pakistan’s ongoing struggle to combat terrorism and protect foreign workers.

Beijing’s growing frustration was evident in recent comments by Liu Jianchao, head of the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party. While acknowledging Pakistan’s efforts in combating terrorism, Liu emphasized that the deteriorating security situation is shaking the confidence of Chinese investors. This underscores the gravity of the situation and the potential economic consequences for Pakistan if it fails to address China’s concerns.

To protect Chinese nationals and CPEC projects, Pakistan has implemented various security measures. In 2017, the country established a Special Security Division (SSD) comprising 9,000 Pakistan Army soldiers and 6,000 paramilitary forces personnel, with a budget of 1.3 billion Pakistani rupees allocated for CPEC security. Additionally, the Pakistan Navy created “Task Force-88” to safeguard the strategically important Gwadar port and its sea lanes.

However, a recent report by Pakistan’s Intelligence Bureau revealed that these security measures have been poorly received by Chinese expatriates, many of whom feel increasingly insecure. The report highlights concerns about safety and the financial burden of adhering to stringent security protocols, such as the use of bulletproof vehicles, further illustrating the high-risk environment Chinese nationals face in Pakistan.

In response to the escalating security threats, Pakistan has proscribed two militant groups under the Anti-Terrorism Act of 1997: the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)-linked ‘Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group’ and the ‘Majeed Brigade’ of the Balochistan Liberation Army. These groups have been implicated in attacks on Chinese nationals. Furthermore, in an attempt to delegitimize the TTP, the Pakistani Ministry of Interior has rebranded the group as ‘Fitna-al-Khawarij’ in official documents. Pakistan and China are also working to have the Majeed Brigade listed under the UN Security Council 1267 Committee, which would subject the group to international sanctions.

Despite these efforts, attacks on Chinese nationals have continued with increasing frequency and lethality. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed responsibility for several high-profile incidents, including a 2018 suicide attack that killed three Chinese engineers in Dalbandin and a 2022 bombing that claimed the lives of three Chinese teachers in Karachi. Other terrorist groups, such as the TTP and Islamic State Khorasan Province, have also targeted Chinese interests in Pakistan. The recent Dasu attack in March 2024, which killed five Chinese nationals working on a hydropower project, has further strained relations between Islamabad and Beijing. In response, China demanded a thorough investigation, prompting Pakistan to form a joint investigation team and offer $2.5 million in compensation to the victims’ families.

China has repeatedly pressed Pakistan to undertake military operations against terrorist groups that threaten Chinese interests. This demand has been evident in past operations, including the 2007 Lal Masjid operation, the Zarb-e-Azb operation aimed partly at Uyghur militants, and the latest efforts against the TTP, Majeed Brigade, and BLA. China’s frustration stems from repeated attacks on its workers in Pakistan, which jeopardize its investments in CPEC. Beijing has even suggested bringing in its own security forces to protect Chinese personnel—a proposal Pakistan has resisted.

Pakistan’s ongoing economic crisis further complicates its ability to meet China’s security demands. The Ministry of Finance reported that the country has suffered $107 billion in financial losses due to militancy since the 9/11 attacks, highlighting the long-term economic impact of terrorism. The security situation has also slowed the pace and scope of CPEC projects, with Chinese investors increasingly reluctant to commit to new ventures without guarantees of safety. This hesitation threatens to undermine the economic benefits Pakistan hoped to gain from CPEC, including job creation, infrastructure development, and energy security.

The Pakistani government has attempted to reassure China of its commitment to protecting Chinese nationals and interests. However, these assurances appear hollow in the face of continued attacks and security breaches. The situation is further complicated by regional dynamics, particularly Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan. Pakistani officials have alleged that some recent attacks, including the Dasu incident, were planned and controlled from Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, adding another layer of complexity to Pakistan’s security challenges.

As Pakistan grapples with these security failures, it risks damaging its crucial economic partnership with China. The CPEC represents a lifeline for Pakistan’s struggling economy, and any reduction in Chinese investment could have severe consequences. Moreover, Pakistan’s inability to protect Chinese nationals may deter other potential foreign investors, further isolating the country economically. Caught between its economic dependence on China and its inability to provide the required security, Pakistan faces a precarious future. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Pakistan can rise to the challenge and reassure its most important economic ally.

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