Campaign Context: New presidential candidate, new campaign strategy?
As campaign season continues, politicians are turning up the volume on campaign rhetoric. To cut through the noise, we’re launching Campaign Context, a series providing clarity on the messages you’re hearing from candidates on the campaign trail. We’re digging past the politics and into the facts to provide you with the transparent, spin-free information you need to make informed decisions this election season.
AUSTIN (KXAN) — Just hours after Vice President Kamala Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate Tuesday, Harris and Walz wasted no time appealing to battleground state voters by holding a rally in Philadelphia.
Pennsylvania is widely considered a battleground state in the 2024 presidential election along with six other states — Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.
After President Biden stepped aside in the race, KXAN wondered whether the Harris campaign would follow the same playbook used by Biden, so we reached out to Dr. Richard Pineda, a professor at University of Texas at El Paso. Pineda said there are a few key areas where Harris will likely adjust her strategy.
"In some of the traditional industrial states — we're talking about Michigan and Pennsylvania — I think that the vice president needs to really talk about the economic benefits that this administration has brought, especially on infrastructure development,” Pineda said. “I don't think that the president would not have done that, but I think that it's even more important for her to talk about her role in making those decisions and being a part of the conversation."
Pineda said South Carolina and Georgia could be in play for Democrats this election in part because virtually all polling shows Harris leads Trump among Black voters by a wide margin. A national polling average shows Harris leads with Black voters by 53.1 points (72.4 percent to 19.3 percent).
Pineda also said Harris has an opportunity to gain votes from women who identify as moderately conservative and “who might be afraid of a four-year Trump term and the impact potentially on reproductive rights.”
As for former President Trump’s campaign, Pineda said a big shift in strategy is unlikely.
"On the Republican side, I don't necessarily see there's going to be much of a change,” Pineda said. “You've already heard some of the rhetoric. The former president is really good at using immigration and forcing that as an issue no matter where he goes, so I don't think that changes.”
While Trump isn't expected to make a significant shift in campaign strategy, Pineda did say he sees mounting pressure on Trump and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, to talk more about how they plan to empower the middle class now that Harris is the Democratic nominee.
Trump is set to travel to Montana on Friday, a state where he won almost 57% of the vote in 2020, followed by Colorado on Saturday. Harris and Walz will continue to target those battleground states — hitting all seven in a campaign blitz over the next four days.