State of Texas: Two polls show Presidential race tightening in Texas

AUSTIN (Nexstar) — Less than two months before election day, two polls released Friday show the race for President getting tighter in Texas.

The Hill and Emerson College asked voters who they would choose if the election was held today. The results show former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 50% to 46%. That's within the poll's 3.3% margin of error. The poll was conducted from Sept. 3 and Sept. 5.

A different poll released Friday by the Texas Politics Project and the University of Texas found Trump leading Harris by five percentage points (49% to 45%) in a poll conducted of 1,200 registered voters between Aug. 23 and Aug. 31. Pollsters estimated the margin of error at 2.83 percent.

These numbers held when pollsters looked at a head-to-head matchup of the two candidates and when they factored in third-party candidates, like the Green Party's Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver. The poll provides another snapshot of how Texans feel about the presidential contest since Biden ended his reelection bid in July.

The Texas Politics Project last put out a poll in June when Biden still remained in the race for the White House. At that time, he trailed Trump by seven percentage points, so the August poll shows Harris performing better among registered Texas voters — a trend reflected in the polling of other states recently.

"The margin of the Republican wins at the presidential level has been declining in Texas for several cycles now," explained Jim Henson, Executive Director of the Texas Politics Project. "We were beginning to see a reversal of that decline when Joe Biden was at the top of the ticket. The replacement by Kamala Harris has kind of bent that curve back down to a more normal position that we would expect."

The University of Houston and Texas Southern University also put out their own poll last month showing very similar numbers, as Trump led Harris by five percentage points in that survey, too.

The most recent poll from the Texas Politics Project and the University of Texas showed enthusiasm surging among Democratic voters in the state. That number registered at 79% — with Democrats saying they're either “extremely” (52%) or very enthusiastic (27%) about voting in the 2024 election. That was an increase since June when 61% of respondents said at that time they were enthusiastic (39% extremely enthusiastic, 22% very enthusiastic).

Meanwhile, the poll found Republican enthusiasm going down slightly from June to August. According to the poll, GOP voters shared in June they're either extremely (55%) or very enthusiastic (22%) compared to 49% of those who are extremely enthusiastic and 25% who are very enthusiastic in the latest survey.

In addition to the presidential contest, pollsters asked Texas voters about where their support lies in the consequential race for the state's U.S. Senate seat. Sen. Ted Cruz, the Republican incumbent, is ahead of his Democratic challenger Colin Allred by eight percentage points (44% to 36%), according to the poll. Support for Libertarian Ted Brown came in at two percent, while 14 percent remain undecided and four percent said they'd choose an unspecified "someone else."

Looking back at the June survey, Cruz's lead dropped slightly. The numbers at that time showed him ahead of Allred by 11 percentage points (45% to 34%).

This group of voters also shared with pollsters what they'd say is the most important problem facing the U.S. today. Inflation and rising prices (22%) and the economy (18%) topped that list followed by immigration (8%), political corruption/leadership (7%) and border security (6%).

Both Harris and Trump delivered speeches this week highlighting some of their plans for the economy, underscoring how much their campaigns believe this issue remains a top concern for potential voters.

Pollsters sought out how these voters also felt about what are the most pressing issues for Texas specifically. They ranked the biggest problems for the state as immigration (16%) and border security (15%) along with inflation and rising prices (12%), political corruption and leadership (9%) and the economy (6%).

The $80 billion question: Texas lawmakers do the math on plans to end property taxes

Can Texas eliminate property taxes? The short answer is no. The longer answer: definitely no, at least not anytime in the foreseeable future, and not without drastic increases to the sales tax or sacrifices of vital state services like healthcare and education at all levels.

State senators tasked with steering the state's massive budget gathered at the Capitol on Wednesday to do the math.

Eliminating property taxes would cost the state more than $81 billion per year, they found. The state raises about $47.5 billion per year in discretionary spending. That means the legislature would have to either cut nearly twice that much from the budget or make it up through other taxes -- like nearly tripling the sales tax to 22%. Senators signaled both options are nonstarters.

"That's foster care, Child Protective Services, Medicaid, Department of Family Services, and a lot of this federally mandated, of course, costs that we have to do," said Senate Finance Chair Joan Huffman, R-Houston. "All the money put on higher education, all the money in public education, all the money for Medicaid, all the money for mental health, human trafficking, all the things that the state has made priorities we would not have the funding for. Is that correct?"

State Sen. Paul Bettencourt, the Senate's architect of property tax reform, told Nexstar the impact on sales taxes would force consumers across state lines and "distort everything in the market." He's hoping to continue his efforts to keep property taxes at bay through a mix of buying down local taxes, increasing homestead exemptions, and limits on local tax rate increases.

"You have to set up something sustainable. And when we look at these changes, we have to not only pay for it now, but in the future," he said.

Conservative policy analysts and advocates argued to the Senate Finance Committee that property taxes are "immoral," akin to "renting" your land from the state. While senators agree the burden is far too high for many homeowners, they admonished people for proposing cuts without offering ways to raise the money for basic services elsewhere.

"People like to have clean water. They're funny that way," said State Sen. Charles Perry, R-Lubbock. "So when you propose a cut, let's make sure you come up here and say, 'if you cut this, you can still do X by this measure.'"

Earlier this year, Gov. Greg Abbott doubled down on his ambitious goal to zero out the largest chunk of your property tax bill.

"I am insisting that we come back once again and ensure that we will continue to cut those property taxes until we get rid of the school property tax right here in the state of Texas," he told the Texas Public Policy Foundation in March.

Last year, Abbott signed a monumental property tax relief bill to increase the homestead exemption to $100,000 and provide municipalities billions to "compress" their tax rate. The plan is estimated to save the average homeowner about $1,400 a year. Abbott argues that measure puts school districts on a "pathway to ending those property taxes."

So, can the legislature cut them even further? According to Huffman, "That's the $80 billion question."

Rick Perry joins Dade Phelan's team as House Speaker race heats up

The longest-serving Governor in Texas history is back in the spotlight at the State Capitol: Rick Perry is now a senior advisor to House Speaker Dade Phelan. The former Governor and U.S. Energy Secretary joins the team as Phelan faces a tough battle to hold on to the gavel.

"He's an honest and fair broker," said Perry of Phelan, during the Texas Tribune Festival. He also said that he hopes to maintain decency and bipartisanship. "We can get on that House or Senate floor and we can cuss and discuss and be passionate about what we believe in, but at the end of the day, we're human beings."

The Speaker is one of the most powerful positions in Texas government, basically being in charge of what bills move forward. A bill is unlikely to advance to the House floor for a vote without the Speaker's blessing.

The race will be not be decided by voters, but instead by the 150 members of the Texas House. Just who those members are will be determined in the November election.

Two of the lawmakers running to unseat Phelan as Speaker of the Texas House presented a united front on Friday, telling a crowd at the Texas Tribune Festival they will both work to enact sweeping procedural changes and prioritize more conservative legislation in an already deeply-conservative chamber.

“It's time for change in the Texas House, and not little change. It's time for big change," said Dr. Tom Oliverson, R-Cypress, who is a candidate for Speaker.

Oliverson and Shelby Slawson, R-Stephenville, were the first two challengers to announce their bid for the speakership. Both have criticized Phelan, their former ally, of inadequately championing conservative priorities in the chamber.

Oliverson carried the bill to ban gender transition surgery for minors, a conservative priority criticized by House Democrats. Slawson earned conservative credentials for carrying the state's major abortion ban as a first-term member.

Mansfield Republican David Cook also announced his run for Speaker this week, though he declined an invitation to participate in the Tribune's panel. Nexstar extended him an interview invite, which his team also declined, explaining he will spend his time speaking with members one-on-one.

Both candidates support appointing only Republicans to chair committees -- a break from longstanding tradition to name members of both the majority and minority parties to lead committees. Oliverson said this practice is outdated and “Texas is essentially the last of a dying breed on this.”

Having Republicans as committee chairs does not mean the minority party would be silenced, Slawson said.

“It’s incumbent upon us to model a leadership style that the majority is respecting of the minority and the voices are still heard in the chamber,” Slawson said.

Slawson and Oliverson were also in agreement that the impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton was mishandled. They both echoed similar sentiments that the process was rushed.

“I know that nobody, other than the people directly involved, had any knowledge that this was going to happen,” Oliverson said. “We were all just literally dumb struck on the House floor. It was as if an atom bomb had just dropped out of space and just hit us right squarely on the House.”

“It’s a frustration throughout the House chamber that we have been conscripted into a war with the other chamber that our voters didn’t send us to be a part of,” Slawson said. “Not a single time on a doorstep did anybody tell me ‘what I really want you to do is go pick fights with the lieutenant governor and the senate, that’d be great.’”

Phelan will need 75 votes to maintain the gavel. That path may involve keeping the 64 Democrats united behind him -- Oliverson said Phelan does not have a pathway to keeping a majority of the Republicans.

“It has been the case in the past, and it can be the case again, that we move from mutually assured destruction to mutual respect and cooperation,” Oliverson said. “But it’s going to take a change in leadership to get there. You’re not going to be able to get there with the same two people.”

Despite funding, challenges remain to connect all of Texas to broadband

The state is working toward making faster, more reliable internet service available to the estimated seven million Texans who still do not have access to broadband. Last year, voters approved $1.5 billion to help push more projects forward, but challenges are still emerging despite more money becoming available.

The Texas Senate's finance committee met Thursday to discuss how implementation is progressing with the Broadband Infrastructure Fund, a measure approved by more than 69% of Texas voters in November. Glenn Hegar, the state's comptroller of public accounts, told senators his office is still working out how to distribute the state resources approved by voters — on top of dealing with a lot of strings tied to federal dollars that are also available.

"Our efforts to make progress have been affected by essentially the federal government's ever-shifting guidance, and the slow approval process placed significant pressure on our diverse state," Hegar testified Thursday.

The federal bureaucracy is something Blanco County is dealing with now, too. County leaders there are partnering with HC Wireless, a local broadband provider, in hopes of securing a federal grant worth more than $4 million to build out more broadband. David McCullough with HC Wireless called navigating that process "complex," but he added it's worth it.

"We built our company to serve our communities, and one way we serve our community is to be able to reach them," McCullough said. "There's only so much we can do with our private funding, as large as our county is, so to have some federal funds potentially coming our way, take advantage of these opportunities, we are now able to serve our community, which was our original goal."

A Texas congressman is now part of an effort to streamline the federal process and improve broadband access to underserved communities. U.S. Rep. August Pfluger, whose district includes rural areas in the Hill Country and west Texas, introduced the PROTOCOL Act this week.

He said this legislation would help improve the mapping process for broadband funding and enhance inter-agency coordination when awarding grants. In a statement Thursday, Pfluger said the goal is to make sure "federal funding can be directed to close the digital divide, while preventing wasteful spending."

“The federal government is spending billions of dollars through various broadband-supporting programs to close the digital divide,” Pfluger said. “However, due to a lack of coordination between federal agencies, rural communities like those in West Texas risk being unserved due to inaccurate broadband maps. Furthermore, taxpayer dollars risk being wasted overbuilding already-served locations. The PROTOCOL Act ensures accurate broadband mapping across the United States so federal funding can be directed to close the digital divide while preventing wasteful spending.”

Blanco County is like many rural areas across the state striving to expand broadband. Bobby Mack-McClung, the mayor pro-tem of Blanco, said the community "used to be kind of a black hole of fiber" until about 10 years ago when some broadband fiber connectivity finally became available in a limited area. He's now planning to join a countywide committee aimed at looking for opportunities to expand where it's offered.

"People certainly see the need, and Blanco is a little bit of a target right now, with growth from both San Antonio and Austin," Mack-McClung said. "We're right there in the middle, so it's a critical need and an urgent need for us. There's some public and private discussions about building more private networks, so we're looking at all options, but it's critical. Help is on the way."

Blanco County should learn in the fall whether it received the multi-million-dollar grant from a U.S. Department of Agriculture program, McCullough said.