Can We Trust the Bullpen — Version 1.0

Evolution is a mystery...

This is the first edition of Can We Trust the Bullpen? Once a month, I will take a look at the bullpen as a whole and try to answer this question, and after last season, we could be in for quite the ride, so strap in!

Heading into 2024, we all knew the bullpen would have quite the different feel to it for a plethora of reasons. With Terry Francona retiring, a much younger, more analytically inclined manager in Stephen Vogt found his way into the head job. Then there was a trade that saw Enyel De Los Santos go to the Padres in return for longtime Royal turned Padre, Scott Barlow. Then came the injuries to Sam Hentges and Trevor Stephan. All of a sudden, this bullpen is just a few familiar faces that’s keeping your year to year sanity intact.

Relief pitching is weird. It’s widely regarded as the most volatile position in sports, and for good reason. Scott Barlow was a career 4-ERA guy before 2021 when he saw a stretch of 140 appearances in Kansas City over the next two years where he posted a 2.30 ERA. It’s a position of constant reassurance and adjustment, and fans are going through that same experience right now with this group.

Heading into the Minnesota series, the Guardians bullpen ranks fifth in ERA. However, they are 15th in xFIP. This discrepancy is largely to do with their 13.1% walk rate, a mark sitting at 25th in the league right now. They’re just giving up baserunners for nothing right now. Scott Barlow and Nick Sandlin are both running walk rates above 20% at the moment while Eli Morgan and Tim Herrin are seeing their’s sit at 18.2% each. Again, small sample size, but what I’m about to talk about next is the evolution of this bullpen that we are already seeing form before our eyes, and I don’t think the amount of games played thus far is going to affect it much.

Role Call

Ol’ Reliables

NICK SANDLIN
The Sandman has been here for a bit, and he is steady as he goes. Sandlin was very good last year up until the All-Star break. Post-ASB, he posted a 5.19 ERA, giving up 8 home runs in 26 innings of work. Teams slugged .485 against him over the last three months, so it’s imperative that he gets back on track this season given the injuries that will likely force him into high leverage spots almost routinely.

Overall, this is where early numbers require a deeper look. Sandlin’s walk rate is ballooned over 20% right now, but it’s because he walked three batters in Monday’s game against Seattle. Outside of that, he’s been a strike thrower who is missing bats and generating whiffs on 44% of opponent’s swings.

One MAJOR factor to keep an eye on with Sandlin: splitter usage. He’s always had the club in his bag, but now he’s actually using it. It’s usage is sitting at 18.8%. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

EMMANUEL CLASE
I have my concerns with Clase and not missing bats, but thus far, the chase rate is back up over 42%, up from 30.8% last season and closer to where he was in 2022, and I don’t think Vogt will overuse him the same way Francona had been. I still think he needs a third pitch that moves the other way, but when you have a cutter and slider like he does, you create the anomaly.

New Faces

CADE SMITH
Early on, the the strikeouts from this bullpen thus far that has opened my eyes substantially as well as the usage of each pitcher. When the Opening Day rosters were announced, there were some surprises that made the cut. With the aforementioned injuries to Sam Hentges and Trevor Stephan, all eyes turned to Stephen Vogt to see who he would slot to fill those holes and roles, and slowly but surely, we are seeing the bullpen’s roles evolve. Enter Cade Smith and Tyler Beede.

Cade Smith stands at 6-foot-5 and has been a reliever since the word go when Cleveland signed him for a mere $20,000 dollars in 2020 after not being selected in the shortened 2020 MLB Draft, and he is on this roster for one reason only: strikeouts. The team’s 25th ranked prospect has faced 16 batters in his three appearances thus far, and he’s fanned nine of them. Just three batters have reached base with only one doing so because they put the ball in play. His fastball is electric, sitting between 93-96, but it plays up quite well.

The perceived velocity on his fastball due to his extension off the mound plays up closer to 98 mph. He also has a splitter that can tumble through the zone, causing a lot of whiffs and groundballs. The intrigue with Smith will be seeing where Vogt utilizes him moving forward because as we’re about to discuss, the opportunity for higher leverage innings are abundant as no one else who’s been on a big league roster feels inclined in taking one and running with it.

TYLER BEEDE
Tyler Beede has had quite the journey up to this point. Beede saw time in San Francisco shortened due to injury, and then in 2023, he went over to Japan and pitched for the Yomiuri Giants. The former standout at Vanderbilt is now 30 years old, and he’s looking for a fresh start stateside. Beede rocks primarily a three to four pitch-mix that sees him throw a 4-seam fastball, splitter, and curveball with the occasional sinker mixed in. With Beede, he still very much feels like an unknown as to what we’ll get out of him. He was the biggest surprise to make the roster, but thus far, he’s been solid. He’s had two outings already this season where he’s thrown his fastball fewer than 5% of the time. He’s going to find a way.

SCOTT BARLOW
I sang praises for the front office’s move in acquiring Barlow, but I definitely have my concerns. The velo struggles he had in San Diego are still prevalent early on this season, but Barlow has always had great extension, so it’s not as impactful to his overall stuff as it could be. Barlow also has a very effective slider and curveball that generate tons of horizontal movement across the zone that have made him so effective for the past three seasons.

Barlow, in contrast to the previous two new faces to this bullpen, does have expectations to not just perform for this unit, but to perform in higher leverage spots. Thus far, it’s not been as big of a deal solely because the offense thinks it’s 1995 again (and I hope that maintains), but as the season progresses, Barlow will be leaned on for bigger spots in the 7th and 8th innings which is why he was brought here in favor to Enyel De Los Santos.

Low Leverage Crew

ELI MORGAN
It pains me to say this, but I don’t think Eli Morgan is going to be on this roster for very long unless something within his performance changes soon. The struggles from mid-2022 carried over into 2023 and have now carried into 2024. His stuff simply does not play out of the bullpen the way it needs to in order to be consistently effective. Yes, the Josh Rojas double that took a 4-0 game at Seattle and made it way harder than it needed to be was a very lucky hit, but how we got to that spot was all Eli.

Raleigh jumped on a weak fastball for a single, and then Morgan walked Ty France on five pitches. It’s a 4-0 game. The entire reason Morgan is in the game here is because he attacks the zone, so issuing free passes is never the answer. The Rojas double led to Morgan getting yanked after recording just one out, and Scott Barlow had to come in and face Julio Rodriguez as the tying run which thankfully resulted in a long flyball out and only a couple years off my life. It’s been the same song and dance with Morgan for a year-and-a-half now. I don’t know how much longer this holds.

HUNTER GADDIS
This isn’t really a surprise, but Hunter Gaddis’s fastball is exploding out of his hand now that he’s in a bullpen role. That being said, I’m not the biggest fan of the rest of his stuff. His slider tends to find too much middle and gets punished, and he’s using his changeup way less thus far (18.2% in 2023 to 7.3% in 2024) despite it being his best pitch. We’ll see with Gaddis, but I don’t think being a fastball/slider type of reliever will work out in the long run.

Too Soon to Tell

TIM HERRIN
Herrin currently brings up the rear in total batters faced, seeing just 11 in his three appearances. As of right now, he seems destined to slot into the low leverage crew, but given his stuff and how the ball looks out of his hand, this team could really use him making a leap this season.

VERDICT: TBD, but concerned

We’re just a week in, so I won’t move off of my “too soon to tell, but concerned” dial for now. I don’t think this unit has enough competitive arms to do what is needed long-term. However, once the bullpen gets Hentges back, I think they’ll be in a better spot to flesh out what they’re able to get out of Cade Smith as well as Tim Herrin. I do think if they are competitive come July, a move needs to be made to go get a rental reliever, but for now, it’s time to observe in silence.