Next High-Stakes Standoff at Second Thomas Shoal Could Involve Allies

The Philippine military has not been able to carry out a rotation and resupply mission to its outpost at Second Thomas Shoal since June 17, the day that China Coast Guard units assaulted two Philippine Navy supply boats with high-speed ramming and bladed weapons, injuring eight servicemembers. After the violent encounter - and continued Chinese obstruction of operations near the reef - the Philippine Navy is now contemplating the possibility of carrying out its next resupply operation while its Western allies have assets nearby - putting foreign servicemembers one step nearer to contact with Chinese forces. 

All previous Philippine missions in the South China Sea have been conducted without direct intervention from foreign partners. U.S. Navy P-8 maritime patrol aircraft have supplied presence and surveillance, and American forces have been stationed elsewhere in the region, but only Philippine troops and coastguardsmen have come face to face with Chinese water cannons and boarding teams. 

According to the Philippine news program 24 Oras, the Philippine Navy is looking at whether it could perform the next transit to Second Thomas Shoal at the same time as nearby military drills with allies, like Australia, the UK, Japan, or the United States. On Wednesday, Philippine Navy spokesman Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad said at a press conference that "all options are being discussed" for the next replenishment mission, including an allied component. 

"We are going to do the [mission] as routinely as possible but we’ll wait for the maritime council to give us the appropriate guidance," he said.

Two U.S. senators have asked the Biden administration to take more action to show American backing for Manila. Senators Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Jim Risch (R-ID) recently wrote to the White House to call for "visible and concrete demonstrations of our support" for Philippine sovereignty, or risk the perception that America is "unwilling to honor [its] bilateral commitments." The Philippines is one of America's oldest treaty allies in Asia, with ties going back to the colonial period. 

Deadline or blockade

This week, Chinese South China Sea think-tank director Wu Shicun recommended that Beijing should give Manila a deadline to remove the garrison at Second Thomas Shoal, closing the "bleeding wound" of frequent confrontations. After the deadline passed, China could cut off the external supply of food, including air drops.

"After a certain period of blockade, the Philippine military personnel stationed at the reef will face a 'survival crisis'. China could then, from a humanitarian perspective, establish a 'special corridor' allowing the Philippines to retrieve its military personnel stationed there," Shicun suggested. 

If China does not resolve the matter permanently, the Philippines might feel embolded to expand its presence elsewhere in the Philippine exclusive economic zone, he warned - like Sabina Shoal, which is currently under close watch by the China Coast Guard's largest vessel. 

China claims much of the western Philippine EEZ as its own, incorporating it within the "nine-dash line" boundary that Beijing has unilaterally drawn around the South China Sea. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague invalidated these sweeping claims in 2016, but China has ignored the ruling. 

Philippine Marines stand up "maritime security" boat unit for South China Sea

Amidst heightened tensions and frequent skirmishes between Philippine and Chinese forces in the Spratly Islands, the Philippine Marine Corps has created a new "Maritime Security Battalion" dedicated to operations in the littorals of the South China Sea, where it will confront "increasing external threats and border disputes."

The unit - previously known as Marine Battalion Landing Team 4 - will support the Philippines' "archipelagic defense" strategy in the "southwestern frontier," the waters west of Palawan where Philippine and Chinese forces interact most. A handout photo shows the unit equipped with four triple-outboard go-fast patrol boats.