What this earnings season says about the wider economy

We are almost through earnings season — that’s where companies report how they’re doing and how they think they’ll do after each quarter. Some companies, like Caterpillar, have lowered their forecasts for the rest of the year. Others, like Uber, did better than expected and predict strong growth.

Airbnb said it expects its growth to slow down in the third quarter. In its earnings call on Tuesday, Chief Financial Officer Ellie Mertz said people aren’t booking as far out in advance as they used to.

“What we’re not seeing the same level of strength is in those larger lead times,” Mertz said. “So, two months from now, what you’re booking for Thanksgiving, what you’re booking for Christmas.”

That could mean consumers travel dreams and wallets are fading, according to Naved Khan, managing director at B. Riley Securities.

“But there could be different reasons for it,” Khan said.

With inflation getting under control, maybe people don’t feel the need to lock in rates so far in advance. Khan said online travel company Booking Holdings reports consumers aren’t slipping.

“Booking has not talked about people moving from, like, a four-star to a three-stars in hotels,” Khan said.

If you look at all the second-quarter earnings reports from all corners of the economy, the overall picture is positive, said RSM’s Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas.

“Eighty percent of firms are beating expectations, and the average is they’re beating it by 8-10%, Brusuelas said.

When companies report earnings, they also offer predictions of how things will go the next couple quarters. It’s called guidance, said Ohsung Kwon, a U.S. equities strategist at Bank of America.

“Guidance was surprisingly strong, actually,” Kwon said. “I mean, it ticked down a little bit, but it’s still very elevated, indicating companies are still sounding positive on their earnings calls.”

Roughly 30% more companies made predictions that were rosier than analysts expected. Bank of America analyzed the tone of earnings calls to get a sense of corporate sentiment.

At the same time, macroeconomic data shows the economy is cooling, said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

“We’ll have lower GDP, so I think that probably the earnings growth we’re going to see is going to moderate some,” Wren said.

Moderate, not deflate. The view from the corporate boardroom is the economy is going to be OK.