New poll: Big support among California voters for climate bond, Adam Schiff

With a recent blistering heat wave where temperatures exceeded 110 degrees in many parts of the state fresh in their minds and severe droughts and massive wildfires common in recent years, California voters strongly support a measure on the November ballot to spend $10 billion to address climate change.

By a margin of 59% to 40%, likely voters said they will vote yes on Proposition 4.

The poll, from the Public Policy Institute of California, a non-partisan research center based in San Francisco, also found that Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank, is maintaining a commanding lead over Republican Steve Garvey, a former first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, in the state’s U.S. Senate election.

Schiff led 64% to Garvey’s 33% among likely voters — an even larger margin than he held in the same poll in April, when he led 61% to 37% in the race for former Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s former seat.

The survey of 1,648 California adults was conducted from June 24 to July 2.

Notably, it found that the state’s residents say they are increasingly affected by and concerned about the changing climate, particularly as it affects their homes.

Overall, 81% of adults said they are “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” that home insurance will become more expensive due to climate change risks.

Over the past year, several major insurance companies, including Allstate, State Farm and Farmers, have cut back on the number of new policies they issue in California and other Western states due to growing wildfire risk, while others have dropped existing customers or raised rates by thousands of dollars a year. Similar shifts have occurred in Florida, North Carolina and other southern states over hurricane risk.

An eye-opening 24% of Californians said that they have considered moving due to the impacts of climate change. Residents in the Central Valley (28%) were the most likely to say they have considered moving, while those in the Orange County-San Diego County area (16%) said they were the least likely. Among Bay Area residents, 23% said they have considered moving due to risks such as heat waves, wildfires, flooding or sea level rise risks.

“The public has heightened awareness about climate change and its risk as a result of experiences that they have personally had living in the state over the past few years,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC’s statewide survey director.

“First it was the drought, then heavy rains and floods, and most recently the heat wave. That all adds up to a recognition that something has changed.”

The poll also found that 67% of Californians oppose new offshore oil drilling along the California coast, while 78% support the construction of offshore wind turbines in the ocean to provide renewable energy.

And by a 66%-33% margin, a majority of Californians support the existing state law that requires 100% of the state’s electricity to come from renewable or carbon-free energy such as wind, solar, geothermal, hydroelectric or nuclear, as opposed to coal and natural gas.

But there are some areas where they are not on board with the policies of Gov. Gavin Newsom, his predecessor Jerry Brown or the Democrats who control the state Legislature.

By a 60-39% margin, a majority of Californians oppose the state law Newsom signed that will ban the sale of new gasoline-powered passenger vehicles in 2035. Support for that first-in-the-nation law, which is also the law in many European countries, has been steadily dropping in California, down from a 49%-49% split in July 2021 in the same poll.

Similarly, while large numbers of Californians support renewable energy, 56% say they are not willing to pay more for it, while 44% said they are. Before the COVID pandemic led to jumps in worldwide inflation, and before PG&E rates had experienced their recent increases, those numbers were reversed. In the 2016 PPIC poll, for example, 56% of Californians said they would be willing to pay more for renewable energy, while 40% said they would not.

For environmental groups, Wednesday’s poll contained a burst of good news.

It was the first non-partisan statewide survey to measure the public support of Proposition 4, the $10 billion climate bond measure, since Democrats in the state Legislature voted two weeks ago to place it on the ballot. More than 100 environmental groups, from the Sierra Club to Audubon California, pushed lawmakers all year for the measure as a way to make up for climate programs that were cut from this year’s budget to help balance a shortfall. Taxpayer groups have opposed it, saying California should cut other programs to provide the money.

“We’re pleased,” said Mike Sweeney, California director for the Nature Conservancy. “This shows we crafted a bond that is responsive to the biggest concerns of voters.”

A majority of likely voters in the PPIC poll said they support the bond in all regions of the state. Support was the strongest (66%) among voters making less than $40,000 a year.

If approved by voters, Proposition 4 would provide $3.8 billion for water projects, including groundwater storage, recycled water, desalination and reservoirs; $1.5 billion for wildfire resilience, mainly by thinning forests and using controlled burns; $1.2 billion for sea level rise projects, including restoring beaches, wetlands and coastal bluffs; $1.2 billion for wildlife, from restoring salmon runs to building freeway crossings for wildlife; $850 million for renewable energy and clean air programs; $700 million for parks; $450 million for extreme heat mitigation, such as more green spaces in cities and schools; and $300 million for farm projects such as water conservation and soil health programs.

At least 40% of the money would be required to be spent in disadvantaged communities, which often have the fewest acres of parks and green space and the highest levels of air pollution.