Kurtenbach: Brandon Aiyuk’s 49ers future is sealed. Blame the Cowboys

Brandon Aiyuk had a good run as a San Francisco 49er.

But that run is coming to an end at the end of the season.

You can blame the Dallas Cowboys for that.

The Niners’ rival, in a late-August bit of desperation, signed their hold-out, All-Pro wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb, to a market-busting four-year, $136 million deal on Monday. The contract has, reportedly, $100 million in guarantees.

It’s an absurd deal for a receiver who takes the majority of his snaps from the slot, but what’s new? The entire offseason has been a string of absurd deals for wide receivers — even those who don’t actually line up wide.

Lamb’s new contract is, obviously, good news for Aiyuk, who does, in fact, line up on the outside of formations. The rate for Aiyuk’s services on a new contract jumped significantly on Monday.

So unless the Niners wide receiver has a change of heart and is interested in taking a significant discount to stay in the Bay, he’ll certainly command a nine-figure contract, with guarantees not far behind that mark.

But he won’t be receiving that deal from the 49ers.

San Francisco simply cannot afford to keep up with the inflation of the wide receiver market.

Not when they’re paying Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Javon Hargrave, and soon Trent Williams top-of-the-market rates.

Not when their quarterback is poised to command a new contract that will pay him upwards of $60 million a season in a few months.

Because the 49ers have spent the last few seasons without an expensive quarterback, the salary cap hasn’t been an issue.

But it’s an issue now. Just ask Arik Armstead, who now plays for the Jaguars, or Kyle Juszczyk, who took a pay cut to stay with the team.

The Niners are already $38 million over the 2025 salary cap, and that’s before Aiyuk’s open-market price increased by roughly 40 percent in the past few months.

Simply put, the 49ers cannot afford to continue to spend at the rate they’ve spent the last four years, and Aiyuk, with the absurd explosion in the wide receiver market, is going to be the next player out the door. He’s an outstanding player, yes, but he’s also a luxury the Niners can no longer afford.

Yes, the Lamb contract puts the Niners and Aiyuk back at something close to square one in negations. Yes, the last six months have been a giant waste of time.

The Niners’ offers — already (accurately) deemed too low by Aiyuk and his representatives — aren’t even competitive now. Even if Aiyuk was willing to meet the Niners halfway on a new deal, it’s still too far for the 49ers to travel.

So here’s what I think happens next: Aiyuk plays on his fifth-year option in 2024.

Then, whether he has an All-Pro season or something a bit less impressive, the 49ers will place a non-exclusive franchise tag on Aiyuk at the end of the campaign.

That tag will allow Aiyuk to hit the open market as a free agent, but the Niners will have the ability to match whichever offer Aiyuk signs.

They won’t match.

But the rules state that if the Niners pass on matching that Aiyuk contract, they will be compensated with two first-round picks by the team that signs the receiver. As evidenced by the last six months, no one is actually going to give up two first-round picks for Aiyuk. (He’s no Trey Lance, after all.)

But the tag will grease the skids for a reasonable trade.

Whatever the Niners can get today for Aiyuk — reportedly a Day 2 and Day 3 pick from the Steelers — will still be on the table from someone come February and March.

Play him, tag him, and trade him.

It’s the only option that’s reasonably remaining for the Niners.

And while that was probably true on Friday, as well, it’s undeniable on Monday, thanks to the Cowboys.