Big 12 pauses with UConn: The Fox factor, the Huskies’ math and what it means for Washington State and Oregon State

The commissioner who never rests is standing down. Big 12 boss Brett Yormark announced Thursday that he won’t pursue a membership invitation for Connecticut at this time, explaining that a “joint” decision with UConn officials was made to “pause our conversations.”

Translation: This isn’t the time for additional Big 12 expansion, but the right time could present itself eventually — perhaps in 12 months, or 36.

After all, Yormark is locked on 2030, when the Big 12 negotiates its next media rights contract. He expects basketball to play a major role in that endeavor, and UConn is the top program not currently attached to a major football-playing conference.

But Yormark’s presidents and athletic directors are nose-deep in the chaotic present, where the NCAA’s economic revolution is unfolding and a billion-dollar antitrust settlement is front and center.

There simply isn’t enough support to invite a basketball school that won’t add immediate value to the Big 12’s football product.

But Yormark’s pursuit of UConn is endlessly intriguing. And as the Hotline tracked the developments in recent weeks — with deep skepticism that anything substantive would materialize — three aspects of the courtship were particularly intriguing:

— Anytime there’s a whisper of realignment news, our thoughts turn to Fox and ESPN. As the ATM machines for cash-strapped athletic departments, the networks effectively run college sports (albeit in a passive manner).

With regard to UConn and the Big 12 specifically, we wonder about Fox.

The network just signed a six-year media contract with the Big East reportedly worth $75 million (approximately) annually. Remove the two-time defending national champions, and the conference is not worth what Fox plans to pay.

Granted, Fox shares the Big 12’s media rights with ESPN, which assuredly would love adding UConn to its basketball  inventory. But in theory, expansion should make sense for the conference and both partners.

Had the courtship turned serious, would Fox have voiced opposition?

— In May, the power conferences agreed to settle an antitrust lawsuit and implement a revenue-sharing model in which athletes will receive roughly $22 million annually.

(Notably, the settlement is in jeopardy after a contentious hearing Thursday that “did not go as we hoped,” NCAA president Charlie Baker said.)

Membership in the Big 12 aligns with UConn’s revenue needs if the Huskies plan to fund their football program at the highest level.

But if they continue to lean into basketball and treat football as a second-class citizen, the imperative changes.

UConn’s basketball peers (Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, etc.) cannot plow $20 million into revenue sharing with basketball players. Football will receive the most support, by far.

In theory, the Huskies would need $4 million to $6 million annually to fund basketball at a competitive level. And they don’t need Big 12 money to hit that mark.

Like Gonzaga, the Huskies would possess a competitive advantage if they drop, or continue to de-emphasize, football.

— College sports is increasingly interconnected, with the Big 12’s courtship of UConn serving as the latest example.

And so we wonder: Is Yormark’s “pause” good, bad or neither for Washington State and Oregon State?

Our hunch: It’s certainly not bad news for the Pac-12 schools, and it could reasonably be considered a positive development.

Clearly, the pause is beneficial from the standpoint of optics.

Any realignment moves that unfold without WSU and OSU cast them down to a lesser place in the perceived hierarchy. They were left behind once. If another wave came and went without them, it would further damage their reputations.

Also, there’s a practical consideration. Adding UConn to bolster the Big 12’s basketball brand could enhance internal support for Gonzaga as the 18th member.

If the Zags come aboard — it doesn’t matter if the move happens in one year, three years or five years — the move would extinguish any hope of the Cougars and Beavers joining the Big 12.

(Not that there’s much hope for that scenario under any circumstances.)

The Cougars and Beavers want chaos, but it needs to be the right type of chaos.

They want disruption in the ACC, where Florida State and Clemson are seeking an escape hatch that could, maybe, possibly, lead to the conference expanding its presence in the Pacific Time Zone.

Bottom line: Washington State and Oregon State have a narrow path into the Power Four. That was the case the day they were left behind, and it remains their reality.

But if we’re assessing the full scope of what’s possible over the next few years, they seemingly are better off with the Big 12 pausing its courtship of UConn.

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