Six things to expect in the final days of the General Election campaign

Can the Tories salvage their campaign with one week left? Or will Labour cruise to a landslide victory?

There is just 48 hours go until voters head to the ballot box and there can be no question that the 2024 General Election campaign has been a slow motion disaster for the Tories.

From the moment the Prime Minister called the election in the torrential rain on the steps of Downing Street the mood of the campaign was set. 

The insulting D-Day veterans snub that followed, open speculation about Labour super majorities, the betting scandal and Rishi Sunak’s disastrous media appearances, have left Tory MPs despairing and traditional Tory voters deserting. 

All of this, in stark contrast to Labour’s slick, well organised and focused ‘Ming vase’ campaign strategy. Labour’s leader Keir Stamer appears more at ease, more assured and rightly more confident as the campaign enters the final stage. He looks like a Prime Minister in-waiting. Rishi Sunak looks broken. 

The polls have not shifted in five weeks and Labour looks likely to form its first government for fourteen years.

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Yet, things can move quickly – can the Tories salvage their campaign with one week left? Or will Labour cruise to a landslide victory?

Here are six things to expect in the final hours of the campaign:

Tories to beat the Labour tax scare drum 

The final BBC Leaders Debate saw Rishi Sunak come out fighting. Tory MPs are privately saying they wanted this version of Sunak at the start of the campaign. He is a man with nothing to lose and it showed. He brazenly repeated the highly disputed Tory claims about Labour costing families an extra £2,000 in tax despite Starmer forcefully telling him it was a lie. With just days of this election campaign to go, expect the Tories to continue the tax scare message with a particular focus on families in their heartland seats. 

They will repeat this claim until the polls close. 

Confidence but no complacency from Starmer 

Keir Starmer has grown in confidence throughout this campaign and very much looks like Britain’s Prime Minister in waiting. The Labour leader appears confident and more assured in each media performance but there will be no complacency in the sprint to the finish line. Labour might be 20 points ahead in all national opinion polls, but the ghosts of historic election losses loom large. That’s why we’ll hear repeated messages about change and needing every vote. There will be a relentless focus on turnout in key marginal constituencies. 

Rayner ramping up Red Wall tour 

Angela Rayner’s battle bus tour of the Red Wall will continue. The feisty deputy Labour leader is playing a crucial role in the battle for winning back lost Labour voters in these critical seats. Rayner is popular with voters in these constituencies and will ramp up her tour of the country to connect with them in a bid to boost voter turnout and persuade people to return to Labour. 

Defence of Tory heartlands 

Opinion polls show the Tories are on course for a crushing election defeat and it very much feels like it is now every candidate for themselves. There is a reason why there has been blind absence of leading Tory figures from the TV and radio studios in the closing stages of the 2024 General Election campaign, and that’s because they are in their constituencies fighting for every vote (others have simply given up). 

Betting scandal to intoxicate campaign 

The controversy surrounding the election date betting scandal shows no signs of abating. 

It has dogged the Tories for two weeks and five of their candidates are under investigation by the Gambling Commission. It is damaging for Sunak and recent revelations that a former Tory cabinet minister placed three bets on the date of the election has made it worse. Labour has also withdrawn support for its candidate Kevin Craig for placing a bet on himself to lose. 

It is a grubby election saga and, in the minds of voters, compounds a notion of Tory sleaze and scandal which has plagued them since Partygate. 

It is likely to rumble on until 4 July with potentially more candidates being dragged into the damaging drama which particularly discredits the Tories further. 

Record spend on digital advertising 

Labour have vastly outspent the Tories on digital advertising during this campaign. They’ve invested more than ever before in reaching voters through social media and this week took out huge online advertisements across Britain’s biggest media channels. In 2019, the Tories digital campaign was superior to Labour, this time, however, they’ve been outspent, outmanoeuvred and are on the backfoot. The Tories will mount a digital fightback in the days leading up to polling day but it seems too little, too late. 

Meanwhile, Labour’s campaign team have focused heavily on targeting their message of change across Facebook, X, Instagram and TikTok, with the social media accounts of people in battleground marginal seats carefully identified. 

Do you have a story you’d like to share? Get in touch by emailing jess.austin@metro.co.uk. 

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