Six key unanswered questions over sinking of Bayesian superyacht
The bodies of five of the six missing passengers recovered following the sinking of the Bayesian superyacht have now been identified, including that of British tech magnate Mike Lynch.
The £30 million vessel capsized with 22 people on board during freak bad weather while moored off the coast of Sicily at around 5am local time on Monday. They had been celebrating Mr Lynch’s acquittal in a fraud trial in the United States.
Other passengers whose bodies were recovered amid renewed rescue efforts yesterday include Morgan Stanley International bank chairman Jonathan Bloomer and Mr Lynch’s lawyer Chris Morvillo.
His 18-year-old daughter Hannah Lynch remains missing.
Authorities are now examining the exact cause of the disaster. Here are some of the key questions facing investigators:
Why did the yacht sink when other boats nearby stayed afloat?
Questions have abounded about what caused the superyacht to rapidly sink, when the nearby Sir Robert Baden Powell sailboat was largely spared and managed to rescue the survivors.
Some experts have pointed to the vessel’s 250ft aluminium mast as being the contributing factor.
American entrepreneur Scott Painter told MailOnline the tall mast could have left the superyacht more vulnerable to capsizing.
He said: ‘That could certainly contribute to a capsize as it would destabilise the yacht. And if it were to lean over too far, it could absolutely capsize the yacht.’
Sam Jefferson, editor of Sailing Today, told The Telegraph: ‘She has a very tall, aluminium mast – I believe it is the second tallest aluminium mast in the world – and that would not have helped.
‘Stability was obviously the problem in the extremely strong winds she was experiencing, and I’d assume the boat was pinned on its side and could not right before it filled up with water.’
Was the Bayesian keel down?
The Bayesian had a retractable keel – the fin-like structure under the hull that helps stabilise boats and acts as a counterweight to the mast.
Andrea Ratti, a nautical design professor at Milan Polytechnic university, and structural engineer Filippo Mattioni both wondered if the yacht had been anchored with the keel up, reducing its depth under water from around 10 to four metres, making it less stable.
Mr Ratti said the boat might have started oscillating wildly, ‘like a pendulum’, under strong winds, putting exceptional strain on the mast.
But even if this had led to its breaking, ‘this by itself is not enough to justify the sinking’, he said.
Jean-Baptiste Souppez, a fellow of the Royal Institute of Naval Architects and the editor of the Journal of Sailing Technology, said: ‘There’s a lot of uncertainty as to whether it had a lifting keel and whether it might have been up.’
‘But if it had, then that would reduce the amount of stability that the vessel had, and therefore made it easier for it to roll over on its side.’
Were access hatches left open?
Mr Ratti said a boat the size of the Bayesian could only sink so rapidly by taking in a huge amount of water.
But yachts like the Bayesian are required to have watertight, sub-compartments that are specifically designed to prevent a rapid, catastrophic sinking even when some parts fill with water.
Mr Ratti added that ‘one can make plausible assumptions that leave room for doubt’ about what happened, suggesting one or more portholes, windows or other openings may have been broken or smashed open by the waterspout, letting in water.
There has also been media speculation that a major hatch might have been inadvertently left open.
However, an industry expert in Britain said it should have taken hours for the Bayesian to fill up with enough water to sink it, making its swift demise incomprehensible.
‘I don’t think the industry has ever faced anything like this. It’s a horror story,’ he said, declining to be named.
Why was there hardly any damage to the boat?
Fire department diver Marco Tilotta told Il Messaggero daily the wreck was ‘apparently intact’, with ‘no gashes, no signs of impact’.
Italian nautical expert Gino Ciriaci suggested the tornado was so strong the yacht overturned, putting the edge of the deck underwater and allowing water to enter the boat.
Karsten Borner, captain of the nearby Sir Robert Baden Powell, told Reuters: ‘I think they were surprised by the power of the storm.
‘I only know that they went flat with the mast on the water and that they sank in two minutes,’ he said, adding that the storm was ‘very violent, very intense’, bringing in ‘a lot of water and I think a turning system like a tornado’.
What is a waterspout?
Civil protection officials said they believe the ship was struck by a tornado over the water, known as a waterspout.
According to the US National Ocean Service, there are two types of waterspouts — fair-weather and tornadic.
Tornadic waterspouts ‘have the same characteristics as a land tornado. They are associated with severe thunderstorms, and are often accompanied by high winds and seas, large hail, and frequent dangerous lightning’, the service says on its website.
While scientists haven’t attributed the specific event to climate change, average monthly surface temperatures have been at record highs for months. Hotter air can hold more moisture, making heavier storms more likely.
Sicily has been baking under intense heat this summer, and the United Nations’ panel of climate change experts notes the Mediterranean Sea is particularly vulnerable to climate change, with warming rates roughly 20% higher than the global average.
What happens next?
As the search for the missing continues, authorities already have begun trying to piece together exactly what happened.
Prosecutors from the Sicilian town of Termini Imerese have opened an investigation, as is normal in such events even when no suspects are identified. To date, they have not commented publicly.
The British Marine Accident Investigation Branch said four of its inspectors were being deployed to Palermo.
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