Trade Profile: Garrett Crochet, LHP
Garrett Crochet
Position: SP
B/T: L/L
Age: 25 (06/21/1999)
2024 Traditional Stats: 18 GS, 6-6, 101 1/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 0.928 WHIP, 12.5 SO/9, 1.8 BB/9
2024 Advanced Stats: 4.0 bWAR, 137 ERA+, 2.37 FIP, 35.3 SO%, 5 BB%, 43.6 GB%, 0.9 HR/9
Rundown
Garrett Croche twas finally let loose by the White Sox in 2024. And he looks like Chris Sale 2.0.
The lefty from the University of Tennessee was drafted in 2020 with the 11th overall pick and was called up immediately that year to help the Sox pursue a championship during the shortened season. Like Sale, he started in the bullpen in 2020 and was lights out in the role in 2021. Crochet pitched to a 2.82 ERA and recorded 10.8 strikeouts per nine, quickly becoming one of the better left-handed relievers in baseball.
After missing the entire 2022 season and most of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery, the White Sox felt Crochet was ready to make the jump to the rotation. They announced Crochet as the Opening Day starter, marking the beginning of what’s been a Cy Young-worthy season.
Through 19 starts in his first season in the rotation, Crochet has pitched to a 3.08 ERA with a major league-leading 146 strikeouts and 12.5 K/9 in 105 1/3 innings.
The southpaw primarily throws three pitches, which include a 97-100 miles per hour fastball, a 91 mph cutter, and an 84 mph slider. Crochet also features a changeup, but only throws it six percent of the time.
All of Crochet’s pitches are dominant. The fastball and slider all have putaway rates of 24.7%, with his cutter being his primary strikeout pitch with a 32.1% putaway rate. He’s a strikeout machine and punches out 32.8% of batters he faces.
There’s truly no downside to Crochet this year. He leads the league in strikeouts, games pitched, FIP (fielding independent pitching), and strikeouts per nine. Even his 3.08 ERA is significantly higher than his 2.47 xERA.
The one knock on Crochet is his lack of professional innings. His previous season high was 54 1/3 in 2021 as a reliever, and his current 105 1/3 innings is higher than all of his previous innings combined in his career.
He’s thankfully had no injury scares this season and takes the mound every fifth day. With close to the league minimum salary in 2024 and two years of control after the season, Crochet will be a hot commodity at the trade deadline.
Package
Any team that deals for Crochet will have to cough up top prospects. As mentioned, Crochet has two and half years of control after the deadline, and the White Sox are looking to rebuild a poor farm system.
The White Sox are rumored to be asking for top pitching talent back, along with other pieces to build for their future. Here is what a potential deal for Crochet would look like, which includes righty Michael Kopech to help a struggling Mets bullpen:
Mets Receive:
- Garrett Crochet (SP)
- Michael Kopech (RHP)
White Sox Receive:
- Christian Scott (MLB No. 39 Prospect)
- Luisangel Acuña (MLB No. 92 Prospect)
- Mike Vasil (Mets No. 12 Prospect)
- Trey McLoughlin (Double-A Reliever)
Scott and Acuña are the big names in this deal. Scott has looked promising in his major league debut season, pitching to a 4.15 ERA in seven starts. Meanwhile, Acuña continues to impress with his bat-to-ball skills and speed in the minors.
Vasil and McLouglin are value pieces that round out the trade. Vasil initially struggled in Syracuse this season, but has pitched to a 4.30 ERA with only four walks in his last 23 innings. McLoughlin was an Arizona Fall League guy last offseason and is currently pitching to a 2.59 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings in Double-A Binghamton.
Recommendation
The price for Crochet is going to be hefty. And in the mock trade above, the Mets would be losing a promising pitcher in Scott, along with Acuña who they secured at last year’s deadline.
But at the same time, it’s Garrett Crochet. I’m absolutely pulling the trigger.
The lefty has been nothing short of dominant, and comes with multiple years of control. Crochet has been an undeniable ace, the kind you plug into Game 1 of a playoff series with confidence. It’s hard to find arms like that.
Not to mention, Scott is the same age (25) as Crochet. The club would get fewer years of control with Crochet, but have a much better pitcher who has elite strikeout stuff on an extremely managable salary.
It’s doubtful the Mets make a trade like this, especially due to Steve Cohen’s goal to build a deep farm system to fuel a sustainable winning club at the major league level. But a pitcher like this, at this age, is never available on the trade market. A player like this is worth the cost of a couple top-100 prospects.
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