Trade Profile: Jesse Winker, OF
JESSE WINKER Position: OF B/T: L/L Age: 30 (08/17/1993) 2024 Traditional Stats: 92 G, 351 PA, .264/.378/.438/.817, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 18 2B, 12 SB, 48 BB 2024 Advanced Stats: 2.2 bWAR, 1.6 fWAR, 134 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .338 xwOBA, .320 BABIP, 13.7% BB%, 21.9% K% RUNDOWN RUN-INs Mets fans are very familiar with Nationals […]
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JESSE WINKER
Position: OF B/T: L/L
Age: 30 (08/17/1993)
2024 Traditional Stats: 92 G, 351 PA, .264/.378/.438/.817, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 18 2B, 12 SB, 48 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 2.2 bWAR, 1.6 fWAR, 134 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .338 xwOBA, .320 BABIP, 13.7% BB%, 21.9% K%
RUNDOWN RUN-INs
Mets fans are very familiar with Nationals outfielder Jesse Winker, but not due to his strong 2024 season.
Before getting into Winker’s overall career, it is important to address the stories involving Winker’s encounters with Mets fans.
It all started during an April 2019 game at Citi Field, when Winker hit a go-ahead home run against Mets closer Edwin Díaz in the top of the ninth inning. Consequently, he taunted the crowd with a waving gesture, much to the ire of Mets fans.
After that, Winker became a villainous figure in Mets circles. In fact, three seasons later, Winker ignited the flame again when he launched a three-run home run to tie the game against the Mets in May 2022. Mets fans were not pleased to see Winker’s embellished home run trot around the bases, and it looked like the rivalry would grow even further between the two parties.
However, following the game, Winker talked about his love and respect for the passionate Mets fans:
“‘I’m going to be honest with you, I love them,” Winker said of Mets fans. ‘They are an amazing group of people. They are very passionate about their team and their city. And from a guy who, born in upstate New York, is a big fan of that football team up there [the NFL’s Buffalo Bills], I can understand the passion and I respect it. This thing we’ve got going on is special.'”
Based on his own words, it is evident that the longstanding feud between Winker and the Mets faithful would not prevent him from coming to Queens. Rather, it seems like it would only increase the chances of a potential match, due to Winker’s desire for a fiery environment.
NOW THE RUNDOWN
Now that the rumors of bad blood between Winker and the Mets have been squashed, let’s examine Winker’s career up to this point.
Winker was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft as the 49th overall pick. The Buffalo native then made his MLB debut in 2017, where he batted .298/.375/.529 with 7 home runs in 47 games. This strong rookie campaign earned Winker a regular role with the Reds for a number of years, where he consistently produced offensively.
In fact, Winker earned his lone All-Star selection in the 2021 season, where he had a career-high 148 wRC+, 24 home runs, and 71 RBIs while batting .305/.394/.556.
This All-Star caliber season caught the eyes of the Seattle Mariners, which is where he was dealt in March of 2022. Unfortunately for Winker and the Mariners, he did not replicate his All-Star form in 2022. Instead, he batted .219/.344/.344 with a 108 wRC+, 14 home runs, 53 RBIs, and 0.6 fWAR.
While this is not a horrible season by most standards, Winker’s continued defensive woes did not help his case. He had a -16 DRS and -10 OAA in 972 innings as a left fielder, diminishing any offensive value he may have provided.
After that season, Winker was dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers, as the Mariners were looking to create opportunities for their younger outfielders. Prior to playing a game with his new team, Winker underwent two surgical procedures during the 2022 offseason. The first one was done to repair a torn left meniscus, and the second was a disc replacement surgery for neck issues.
Winker only played in 61 games in the 2023 season, and he did not hit the ground running. He batted .199/.320/.247 with just one home run, a 25.9 percent strikeout rate, 65 wRC+, and -0.8 fWAR. Winker’s value plummeted due to this abysmal campaign, and he hit the free agent market at a rough time in his career.
Fortunately for Winker, the Washington Nationals took a flyer on him, signing him to a minor league contract ahead of this season. They are only paying him $2 million for one year, and he has been worth every penny with a 134 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR through 92 games. Now, the Nationals are in a great position to trade the outfielder, who likely does not fit the timeline of their rebuild.
Winker would be an attractive option for any contender looking to bolster their offensive production against right-handed pitchers. He is batting .275/.396/.478 with 149 wRC+ in 252 plate appearances against the right-handed pitchers, with 10 of his 11 home runs coming against them.
Thus, he would be most desirable in a platoon role as a designated hitter with occasional outfield work, as his defensive woes have not fully escaped him. According to Baseball Savant, Winker ranks in the lowest percentile for Outs Above Average with a -8 figure. However, he has 2.6 Outfield Arm Runs (ARM), which is a FanGraphs metric that measures a player’s tendency to throw out runners or prevent runners from advancing extra bases.
PACKAGE
Jesse Winker should not command too hefty of a package, as he is on an expiring contract. Additionally, his low salary ($2 million) will make it easy for a team to take him on, as they will not have to worry about any serious luxury tax implications.
Here is what a potential deal for Winker could look like. (The Nationals have good relievers on expiring deals, and perhaps they could broach a deal including one of them, too.)
Mets Receive:
- Jesse Winker (OF)
Nationals Receive:
- Tyler Stuart (No. 18 Prospect via MLB Pipeline, No. 22 on BA)
- Nick Morabito (No. 26 Prospect via Pipeline, NR on BA)
The Nationals would be receiving two prospects in this mock trade. Stuart, a 24-year-old starting pitcher who stands 6-foot-9, has struck out 82 batters in 74 innings with Double-A Binghamton this season. Meanwhile, the 21-year-old outfielder Morabito is batting .305/.403/.389 with 37 stolen bases, three home runs, and 21 RBIs between Single-A and High-A this year.
RECOMMENDATION
David Stearns should certainly make a call to the Nationals front office regarding Jesse Winker.
He would immediately serve as an upgrade to the struggling DJ Stewart. Stewart is batting just .181/.327/.331 against right-handed pitching with five home runs and 19 RBIs. Additionally, he is striking out at a 23.1 percent clip and has a 92 wRC+.
The Mets have also been without their regular right fielder Starling Marte due to his knee injury. Marte has yet to resume baseball activities due to the lingering pain that he’s experiencing.
That said, Winker could greatly benefit the Mets lineup with his production against right-handed pitching. He would likely replace Stewart in the right fielder/designated hitter role against right-handed pitching.
If this type of offer comes on the table, the Mets should take it. Winker would not only serve as an immediate upgrade in the lineup, but a move like this would show the Mets players that their front office believes in them. It would also be interesting to see how Winker’s competitive nature would fit with the passionate Mets fanbase.
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